Viewing a single comment thread. View all comments

SidharthaGalt t1_j256hr8 wrote

Your bad bets on options don’t mean oil is a bad investment. I put a couple of thousand each into a mix of high yield oil and gas last December, and they’re not only my biggest gainers, they pay a lot of dividends. We won’t be off oil for a very long time, and unregulated energy companies have regularly show the ability to set prices as needed to sustain profits.

21

Resident_Magician109 t1_j25jljr wrote

Yeah I'm up another 60% this year making my total gains over 2 years over 300%.

7

Ancient_Implement_30 t1_j272yhz wrote

I was king oil in 2020.

Sold out in 2022.

Now, i am short!

0

Resident_Magician109 t1_j274v76 wrote

Short? Bold. I think it has more to run. But the days of big returns are over. I think we are going to repeat 1965-1980 so anything that generates cash flow and dividends is the place to be. I think oil is safe, but I also sold out.

2

Ancient_Implement_30 t1_j277q95 wrote

I bought OXY at 13. So i did really well.

Now short HES.

If you look at oil, historically, the late 70s and late 2000s. Those were the only times it really held over $80/ppb.

Oil stocks have continued rallying while oil has had a strong pull back.

My bet is that oil will stay under $80. And oil stocks will pull back 20-30% next year.

But i can always cover and get out. Not married to the trade! Just going off of data.

2

Resident_Magician109 t1_j2794ou wrote

Remember, we were releasing 1 million bbl a day for much of this year and we weren't the only country releasing reserves. Additionally 1/7th of the world's population has been on lockdown on and off. Also, most projections have peak global demand somewhere around a decade from now with sustained consumption around today's level until 2050 or so.

I don't know what next year holds, but that was my thesis getting in back in 2020.

Right now my biggest holding is in ET which is currently paying roughly 8% in dividends and plans to raise dividends to over 10% current value by Q1.

I hope the price dips 30% next year. I wouldn't mind accumulating 15% additional shares.

1

Ancient_Implement_30 t1_j27h71a wrote

That’s all fine.

I am looking at historically. Only twice has oil gone above $100/ppb in consecutive years. Late 70s with Iran. And during the last bush war.

That’s it. Well, also 1860s. But that’s way out there.

1

Hacking_the_Gibson t1_j27b273 wrote

You must be me. I had OXY at like $23.

I am thinking about a short as well. Global central banks are doing the inverse of 2020 right now, whatever is necessary to kill demand.

1

IANG_teetboy t1_j28henr wrote

This is solid DD. Thanks. I love it when people trade based on data and not feelings.

1

Forsaken-Secret-7398 OP t1_j256qog wrote

What does your strategy look like?

2

changinginthebigsky t1_j25pup1 wrote

literally just buying oil etfs and holding them, nothing else.... you honestly have to be trying to lose money if your investing in (and not against) oil and somehow down ytd. check any etf. if you bought and held you'd be wildly up. maybe start there first, then move to options.

3

SidharthaGalt t1_j2759su wrote

Buy low, harvest dividends, hold forever. BPT requires some watching, however, as it only pays out as long as oil is above their cost of production (about $66 be barrel but expected to rise as the field is depleted). I wont live long enough to see demand for oil and gas to fall significantly.

2