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moMoPIZA t1_iyersvf wrote

J Pow can smell puts from miles away!

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FuckoNo5 t1_iyex8fn wrote

This happens all the time.

Bad news happen and market runs up for a few days and then takes the shit it was supposed to take.

How else are the big guys going to get the stupid panicky guys money?

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Tandittor t1_iyf6rwv wrote

Bad news? Did you listen to Powell's speech today? Dude basically said the Fed Reserve will slow down pace (down to 50 or 25 bps) unless inflation starts rising fast again.

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SC-Fulmer t1_iyf8zsl wrote

A “slow down” in rates (aka: concave down~> 2nd Derivative)… is STILL a HIGHER RATE (aka: increase~> 1st Derivative)🤦‍♂️

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Tandittor t1_iyfdoc7 wrote

Unfortunately, the market tends to not care about your kind of interpretations of 1st and 2nd derivatives😢

EDIT:

From my other comments here (since you all seem to be implying the same things and I'm lazy to type another unique comment that provides more clarity):

>That's not how the market works. Mr. Market is forward-looking, and that is why the regards here get confused all the time when it rallies when the FOMC raise rates and CPI prints 7.7%.
>
>You need to keep an eye on TIPS, and more importantly, the futures that track the OBFR to get an idea of what is already being priced in and then compare those data to what actually happens.

​

>50 bps for Nov, yes. But confirmation that the pace will be slow from here on till terminal rate is reached and then held there was essentially confirmed today.
>
>But none of that will matter if inflation starts heading up again. That, along with the terminal rate from the December SEP, will be the next big market movers.

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Veevickavin t1_iyf8q5l wrote

Wasn’t that already priced in though? Market had decided to rally before this meeting started.

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Tandittor t1_iyfd6m4 wrote

50 bps for Nov, yes. But confirmation that the pace will be slow from here on till terminal rate is reached and then held there was essentially confirmed today.

But none of that will matter if inflation starts heading up again. That, along with the terminal rate from the December SEP, will be the next big market movers.

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FuckoNo5 t1_iyfaggp wrote

Continuing to raise rates AT ALL is bad news.

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Tandittor t1_iyfc2gy wrote

That's not how the market works. Mr. Market is forward-looking, and that is why the regards here get confused all the time when it rallies when the FOMC raise rates and CPI prints 7.7%.

You need to keep an eye on TIPS, and more importantly, the futures that track the OBFR to get an idea of what is already being priced in and then compare those data to what actually happens.

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FuckoNo5 t1_iyfdgai wrote

No one is dumping huge loads into companies who are still shrinking. That would be dumb. You wait til the bottom and then do that and with the fed saying everything borrowed is getting even more expensive the bottom is clearly not here. By a long shot.

When the fed stops raising the rates they won't just be dropping them after we reach the goal. They will hold them there for several years.

The fed is the printer but it doesn't just print those dollars to give. They are loaned and the fed is calling the debt now. It will take years of high internet loans to pay back the enormous amount we borrowed from it over the last decade.

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Tandittor t1_iyfehr3 wrote

Never said the bottom was in.

But why are you bothering with daily and hourly moves if the bottom is what you're chasing?

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