Comments
collarsandchains OP t1_iyf021f wrote
Shipping rates and the hot labor market were driving inflation through the roof, both have eased, they should (as they are) ease off the brakes as that's happening. The Fed's mandate isn't to stop inflation by crushing the economy, it's to keep inflation under control.
MomentSpecialist2020 t1_iyf0tr7 wrote
Just watch. Oil and natural resources are scarce. That will drive inflation higher. Speculation in real estate and stocks will resume driving inflation higher. Inflation has a psychological part, FOMO etc. People are scared. Shortages of food, gas, diesel, etc. will drive people to hoard.
collarsandchains OP t1_iyf1n9h wrote
In the long run you're right, but you know what they say about the long run...
We aren't there yet.
mnelso32 t1_iyf6cpk wrote
Labor market is still very hot. See this thread:
collarsandchains OP t1_iyfazqj wrote
The market remaining tight isn't the same thing as it staying as hot as it was. More to the point, freight costs (in part pushed up by fuel costs) and commodity prices (oil/grain) are no longer being pushed up the way they were six months ago by Putin's invasion of Ukraine. There's no one factor that was pushing up inflation but the sum total of the factors that were pushing it up are not as intense as they were when Powell slammed the brakes on the stock market and pushed AAPL down to 130.
collarsandchains OP t1_iyf2fda wrote
"The main news is... Powell likes to drink coffee and read newspapers before work."
^makes me laugh
Aggressive_Bit_91 t1_iyf4zvm wrote
Why do I feel like this is too good to be true, is wording is vague like “well it’s possible…. Incoming data blah blah blah” then he says labor market and emphasizes on services inflation. Which an inflation report comes tomorrow and jobs data Friday… something smells weird here imo but idk honestly I’m beginning to think I don’t know shit about anything. Payrolls will probably be a non event Friday and pce idk. But my question is will people be grabbing up jobs with what the outlook looks like. There’s really been no surprises in the jobs data recently. I’ve also noticed that the adp data is not very accurate (seen large swings both ways on that). I got shit on today and honestly can’t believe what I just saw, now keep in mind I thought the market would react the way it did on the last cpi release… but this pushed almost every metric into extreme greed (in itself doesn’t mean anything). Idk if you will read this or have input but I don’t honestly know what to make of this. Seems like the market wants to go to ath rn and I do actually somewhat agree with the rally that occurred from the past bit. The one thing that throws me off is the amount of massive and I mean MASSIVE upswings in the past 2 months which a actually isn’t indicative of bull markets not fueled by monetary stimulus.
GayBearGary t1_iyfd3a0 wrote
I was a little surprised by the moves today. He didn’t say anything not already known.
Rates remain elevated and will continue to increase. QT is in full operation. Those two pieces alone make me cautious.
collarsandchains OP t1_iyfamjc wrote
>Why do I feel like this is too good to be true,
Because reading Fed statements isn't like reading the newspaper
> is wording is vague like “well it’s possible…. Incoming data blah blah blah” then he says labor market and emphasizes on services inflation.
The Fed is run by economists, as economists do they make a point of qualifying any predictions that aren't entirely certain, which is basically everything that hasn't happened yet. A byproduct of this is that when they do say something with any material degree of certainty the world jumps, that's why arguably Powell is more powerful than Biden.
>Which an inflation report comes tomorrow and jobs data Friday… something smells weird here imo but idk honestly I’m beginning to think I don’t know shit about anything. Payrolls will probably be a non event Friday and pce idk.
You're right, you dont know. I don't either with any degree of certainty.
>But my question is will people be grabbing up jobs with what the outlook looks like. There’s really been no surprises in the jobs data recently. I’ve also noticed that the adp data is not very accurate (seen large swings both ways on that).
Given this dovishness I would anticipate that either jobs or inflation are going to print weaker numbers than they have lately.\
>I got shit on today and honestly can’t believe what I just saw, now keep in mind I thought the market would react the way it did on the last cpi release… but this pushed almost every metric into extreme greed (in itself doesn’t mean anything
What's your day job?
>). Idk if you will read this or have input but I don’t honestly know what to make of this. Seems like the market wants to go to ath rn and I do actually somewhat agree with the rally that occurred from the past bit.
It's definitely true no one wants to miss out on upside, the dovish language in today's statement presaged by weakening freight costs and more news of layoffs meant that fears of another 75 bp rate hike didn't bear out.
>The one thing that throws me off is the amount of massive and I mean MASSIVE upswings in the past 2 months which a actually isn’t indicative of bull markets not fueled by monetary stimulus.
The market is still down materially YTD as a whole.
Aggressive_Bit_91 t1_iyfd4jb wrote
Just have a big position in spy that went against me not like weeklies but still after a pump like that it makes you question of what you saw was wrong in the medium term and thank you for your response
VisualMod t1_iyeysub wrote
I think Powell is being a bit too optimistic here. The jobs data isn't as good as he makes it out to be, and inflation is still a major problem. I don't see how the Fed can justify continuing to raise rates when there are so many headwinds facing the economy.
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collarsandchains OP t1_iyeyywo wrote
Good thing Skynet isn't running the Fed yet IMO
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[deleted] t1_iyezew5 wrote
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[deleted] t1_iyfacmf wrote
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MomentSpecialist2020 t1_iyezsz8 wrote
Inflation will take off more than ever now. Foolish man.