Brazil short short short

Submitted by DallasCCRN t3_yi4bg9 in wallstreetbets

The vast majority of Brazil’s GDP comes from industries and business in the Southern and South East part of the country. Those areas were heavily pro Bolsonaro 55-60%, pro gun, and a have long history of supporting separatist ideologies from the northern part of the country. Google “O sul é meu país (The south is my country.)” Bolsonaro is former military and has the support of the armed forces. My cousin is currently stuck in a major highway in the southern state of Santa Catarina because of protests blocking major highways and refusing to let truck drivers through. The people are chanting “We won’t move until the military takes the country back.” Brazil also has a long history of military take overs, so this wouldn’t be a first. Petrobras, Brazil’s largest oil company is partly owned by the federal government. Put it all together and the Brazilian economy is about to tumble.

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VisualMod t1_iuh2ml9 wrote

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VisualMod t1_iuh2mwd wrote

>I completely agree. The current situation in Brazil is very unstable and there is a real risk of a military takeover. This would be disastrous for the Brazilian economy, as well as for global markets more broadly. I believe that investors should be extremely cautious about investing in Brazil at this time.

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icingonthecake171 t1_iuh4h47 wrote

Replying to VisualMod (#374,694)

Trust me, much more disastrous for the Brazilian economy is let the guy that got elected run the country he broke the country once and was arrested for what is so far the biggest corruption scandal discovered in human history. He got elected the same way Biden was and will yield the same results as biden in the US. A Coup now would actually save the country from a disaster, but it will unlikely happen. At least not now. Brazil will go down the same way as Argentina, Chile, Colombia and the US. If you have money invested there, get it out while you can.

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Gndossan t1_iuh77fk wrote

puts in Portugal with even more illegal immigration invading us...

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Perfect600 t1_iuheg77 wrote

Sounds like crap out of the US in 2024

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insan1k t1_iuhf55r wrote

Damn, the cattle has come far to weep. Corruption aside when Lula was president, petrobras and the country itself had a high investment rating, everyone believed the word of ONE judge who then went to be Bolsonaro's minister of justice, then to campaign for Bolsonaro on the runoff election.

It's ridiculous to say that Lula will have a worse economic agenda then Bolsonaro, especially when you factor in the fact that when he arrived in the presidency for the first time in 2002 he was able to raise the interest rates and implement austere measures no conservative government had the political capital to do a the time.

Crying out for a coup is just a delusional and stupid idea. The military dictatorship in Brazil, a government without any checks and balances, was much more corrupt than any other in the history of Brazil, then again, I don't live there, I just pick the stocks man.

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megaoli1 t1_iuhhn45 wrote

Calls on vale and pb

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wongyeng888 t1_iuhj6u9 wrote

Will America consider this democracy for Chynah ?

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DallasCCRN OP t1_iuhl9y0 wrote

Replying to insan1k (#377,494)

I didn’t say that Lula will have a worse economic agenda than Bolsonaro.

I also didn’t say that a military dictatorship was a good solution.

Saying the Brazilian economy will tumble does not mean I want it to tumble, nor does it mean I, myself, am a supporter of one candidate over the other.

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ASMR_NAKED_COWBOY t1_iuhrc7h wrote

A corrupt leftist that is anti-business took over. He will tank the economy on his own, no need for the military to get involved.

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Gndossan t1_iuhxclp wrote

Replying to Odd-Detail1136 (#380,721)

Yeah. Officially are almost 10% of the population. But because everyone that had a portuguese grandad can have portuguese passport, lots of them come over, dont have any affinity with the country but are PT and are not accounted as brazilians...

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insan1k t1_iuif990 wrote

Replying to DallasCCRN (#379,196)

Hey never claimed that, you in particular, were any of those things, but since you felt compelled to reply, there are a few things I would like to add.

A number of truckers on strike is in no way indicative of a imminent collapse of the supply chains, moreover dumb people chanting for a military dictatorship don't make one simply manifest, while you are right that Brazil has had a long history of authoritarian governments, the fact that is often missed in history however, is that the governments that achieved permanence by force in Brazil have some things in common:

  1. Massive support within the upper echelons of the military
  2. Support from external nation states
  3. Popular support.

Bolsonaro has little support with the high ranking officials of the army, his current vice president, could hold that prestige, but since he broke off with him and ran with a different less prestigious general as his vice-president this time around, we can scratch number 1 off the list.

With regards to support from external nation states, the only other world leader now willing to even meet with bolsonaro is Vladimir Putin, which for obvious reasons is not in a position to stage a coup in Brazil. The Americans hate the guy, especially in the Biden administration, since he decided to side with Trump when he was defeated.

Popular support, is up for debate, he might have that, based on the fact that he had 49% of the valid votes, how many of these voters would support a military dictatorship is unclear. Furthermore, it's an election with a high number abstentions, which make it even more ill defined.

If you look at Brazilian history, you can say for sure that so far, separatist movements have been dealt with in the most severe manner possible by the federal government, so far all of them have failed, so that would not be a concern for me.

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