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zerof3565 t1_iuhu2dg wrote

Reply to comment by my_trout_is_killgore in Will this be the options play that makes me rich? by exclusive_mo

Early for sure. SPY will hit $360 eventually in a couple of months I think.

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my_trout_is_killgore t1_iuhz013 wrote

Yeah, I'm not a huge fan of rolling options, just because its what I want to do when I'm chasing, but in OPs case , I would definitely look into it. Imo , which is like an asshole...blah blah, the market will tank, not as bad as people think it will as it seems to have disconnected from the economy overall on a real time basis. It's on a bigger lag now and I believe won't catch up to reality until end of Jan beginning of February next year.

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pw7090 t1_iui2t0c wrote

Rolling is just convincing yourself you didn't lose money anyway.

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my_trout_is_killgore t1_iui6aqo wrote

Yeah, it's always seemed more if an ego , I know I'm right sorta play, but hey, it has to work for someone or no one would do it.

Myself personally, and I'll share this here so not many people read it and I don't get laughed at too much is that I believe post covid market is like a train that didn't derail, but came close, it's dusting itself off and it has to start out super slow so it's slowly able to un jumble the cars up. In other words, we aren't going to see enough of a drop to make rolling this worth the premiums. This is the part I get laughed at for, I believe we had legitimate inflation, maybe up to 6 points, the rest was gouging. That's why I think the markets aren't tanking completely, I think they are raising rates into real inflation that in and of itself is inflated by overcharging. So the Fed will overshoot, but won't cause much of a recession because the market( except housing) will run faster. But another idiot opinion I have is that after 2008, the banks have compartmentalized enough that a huge drop in housing will not cause the whole market to tank again, because they do learn, not to not do the same shit to make money, but when they do the same shit to make money that tanked the economy, put it in its own box with all sorts of safeties so it doesent taint other aspects.

Wrote a novel here, sorry, but I feel better for having shared my niave opinion. Be gentle anyone reading, I'm highly regarded

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