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VisualMod t1_iue9emc wrote

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1

Swiftnice t1_iue9wzr wrote

It's not about it actually decreasing it just matters if we believe it is.

241

CalyShadezz t1_iueaeof wrote

Looks to me like the consensus started being right around June/July.

−2

RepairThrowaway1 t1_iuebkb5 wrote

The stupidest thing about the graph is that all the projections have the inflation nicely levelling off above zero at 2% as if the fed has any clue what the fuck they are doing.

Inflation can come down soon, but only if things are so fucked that we overshoot to the downside.

The idea that we can have a controlled disinflation to 2% is total BS. I think inflation goes down, but there's no way these clowns can control it to 2%, if it starts dropping to 2% it's gonna keep going.

They're not gonna successfully control it by reducing demand, they are either gonna let it remain way too high or destroy the financial system and spike the dollar to the moon, there's no in between for these clowns.

37

Infamous_Sympathy_91 OP t1_iueeig2 wrote

Replying to RepairThrowaway1 (#350,946)

100% it's like bank analysts are writing up reports for their head teacher (the central bank)... and in doing so affirming their support that the FED and US government can control manage the US economy and geopolitical situation enough to hit the target of 2% within a relatively short amount of time.

9

nvanderw t1_iuegp1z wrote

Replying to Infamous_Sympathy_91 (#351,329)

So the real question is. is this time different from previous times? and in what ways?

I have I-bonds, but I also think it will only take 2-4 years this time to get inflation down to 2. We live in a different, more deflationary economy in 2022.

7

lurkingbeyondabyss t1_iuehj1x wrote

Kinda similar to the DD's i've seen on WSB. Wouldn't say i haven't followed them DD's to the detriments of my portfolio at least a few times.

1

euserc75 t1_iuejq7n wrote

Calculation includes previous 12 month data. Bound to come down as lower numbers get included in the equation. Look up the number for the last few months. My guess is March or April the CPI should be around 2%.

−4

broccolissimo3 t1_iuekg1a wrote

That's not forecasting, it's drawing a line from the current situation to where you want it to be ;D

197

alroprezzy t1_iuelfwb wrote

This is what bias looks like

2

Evn-erl t1_iuemkl9 wrote

I think anyone with any sort of economic training has a tough time seeing prices increasing in perpetuity…that being said we probably won’t see prices actually stabilize until we get into an actual recession where unemployment goes up…and that has not happened yet, might happen next year, who knows?

19

zzzVelex t1_iuen0bl wrote

Looks like one of them is spot on

1

5_minute_major t1_iuenm8w wrote

Replying to nvanderw (#351,924)

Wut?

Globalism is dying or is already dead. We can no longer rely on cheap labor from China to produce everything. The world is increasingly becoming fractured into spheres of influence. If anything, we live in a more inflationary environment than the last two decades.

13

nvanderw t1_iueowz6 wrote

Replying to 5_minute_major (#353,349)

Well, I am pouring money into I-bonds just in case this is the new reality. Things can change quickly within 2-3 years though, and go back to the status quo of the previous decade. Time will tell.

1

NeatProper8520 t1_iues7tv wrote

Since this has happened before it will likely keep happening indefinetly. So inflation will keep growing forever and soon even your puts can’t buy a potato.

10

Deviusoark t1_iuete40 wrote

Replying to nvanderw (#351,924)

See I think the opposite. I think that since the debt to gdp ratio is so much higher that things could be much worse this time around. We truthfully don't know of inflation will continue to rise or not.

8

follow-spy t1_iueth9v wrote

Replying to Swiftnice (#350,653)

The group at large needs to have a conception that things have slowed down and everyone eventually slows down because we are herds by nature and this is what the fed wants

9

Bryguy3k t1_iuey15s wrote

Appeal to consensus is a form of logical fallacy - the consensus is always wrong - every time.

9

ASMR_NAKED_COWBOY t1_iuezxk7 wrote

The fed is only pretending to fight inflation. They know very well they devalued money by 80-90% with the printers, and the only option is for that to be expressed in the ratio of money vs assets. It's gonna be 5 more years of high inflation.

12

GlitteringEar5190 t1_iuf20wz wrote

I just had to buy a ream of copy paper. The prices went up so much in last 4 months, that I had to look through my 2022 purchase history in ebay to find out how much I paid last time. I paid $4.99 in April, now its 8.28$. Infaltion is rampant. Fed have to break the economy to get it under control.

7

Infamous_Sympathy_91 OP t1_iuf2r7z wrote

Pretty sure the FED will raise baseline inflation target to 3% by 2024.

7

potato-balls t1_iufa6pt wrote

This is as stupid as voting polls, either that or youre not living in the same world, fuel costs rising again and inflation is totally manipulated to stay under 12% to the public. Cool colors though

1

manu144x t1_iufbdzb wrote

Remember guys, it’s not a lie…if you believe it.

3

actias_selene t1_iufcbv1 wrote

Good luck fighting against inflation when there are still negative interest rates, very low unemployment and basically no nonprofitable companies went bankrupt.

2

komidor64 t1_iufe0hs wrote

Lol and the higher it goes the steeper the consensus bends downward. We are ruled by liars and idiots

6

Superb-Ad3945 t1_iufhh9h wrote

Replying to Evn-erl (#353,131)

I think your correct. But the recession might need to be deep or perhaps double dip to properly kill the inflation. Also I have to actually cause a recession. Something that the media is speculation a early pivot. This will be a game of chicken it seems perhaps it is a impossible game to win without beefing it

1

ole87 t1_iufi5tz wrote

I believe in magic

1

Superb-Ad3945 t1_iufimwj wrote

Replying to Evn-erl (#359,997)

Double dip is when the fed pivots too early. They try to anticipate the neutral rate as their tools have long lags. Then they have to pivot back to put the economy in a second more powerful recession than the first . Same is true of the fed doesn’t get a handle of the inflation in the near term. The depth of the recession will be amplified the higher inflation goes

5

unlimitedquanteasing t1_iufiug2 wrote

This has got to be one of the worst visualizations I’ve ever seen.

1

bannannamo t1_iufj1vk wrote

Replying to Evn-erl (#353,131)

I dont see why unemployment would cause deflation. It's not like the working class caused food, oil, college, housing prices to rise.

But judging by our history of inflation, I don't see commodity prices ever going down. Seems more like the working class is paying for it on both ends. They sure as shit didn't manufacture an ongoing liquidity crisis. Maybe housing will dip with rate hikes, but it won't last long.

I'd look at the other folks with 90% of the money supply who aren't going to get laid off. Banks, ultra rich, and many of our elected officials. They're all safe when it hits and will be buying our failed investments in bulk yet again when workers lose jobs and have to sell assets, some they're still paying loans for, to survive.

This one is probably up to the fed raising rates high enough, which it hasn't. It'll cause unemployment for some companies who rely on debt heavily, but idk if I'd say unemployment is a solution so much as a symptom of nearly free (or actually free) loans over a decade to the upper class.

1

HeyHihoho t1_iufkvd0 wrote

They put out false information like "transitory" and "there may be a reccession" so forth to finesse it and normalize it so people get used to living in it

5

bannannamo t1_iuflykw wrote

Replying to Evn-erl (#360,356)

Well 40 years strong of that not happening in this country as we continuously inflate, because our currency is inflationary by design.

We aren't going from 10% inflation to -9%. We are going to 2% target with about half the effort as in the 80s inflation crisis, and possibly higher inflation levels since our model for calculating has changed.

It's a game of chicken to see whose economy can afford to raise rates fastest to avoid devaluing their own country currency the most. What happens when they sell our fed bonds for liquidity?

So get ready for wendys to be hiring for 30/hr. It's already 23 here starting. I'm expecting the dollar milkshake or a quick move to a centralized crypto as jpow said to save the dollar.

Also he suggested inventing a 1 trillion dollar coin. Zimbabwe style.

−5

bannannamo t1_iufn11d wrote

Replying to Evn-erl (#360,976)

Lmfao not 1 actual thing said except "no, me right"

Enjoy your unemployment, at least you'll be fixing the dollar. Sorry to say your economics 101 doesn't cover federal rates relations between countries.

8% rates aren't enough.

0

run_gx_10144 t1_iufn36u wrote

that's because it went up instead of down

2

RealMcGonzo t1_iufow62 wrote

Replying to nvanderw (#351,924)

There are a lot more headwinds. Instead of globalization, we have deglobalization. The first world has a population that has past its peak earning potential. Population growth worldwide is slowing.

1

RealMcGonzo t1_iufp9v0 wrote

Replying to Evn-erl (#353,131)

>anyone with any sort of economic training has a tough time seeing prices increasing in perpetuity

Prices have increased for what? 70 years other than a couple blips? But hey, only ignorant folks think that will continue?

1

jasperCrow t1_iufpexc wrote

It has been wrong EVERY SINGLE MONTH

2

wisle-n-out t1_iufssmo wrote

Of course its wrong, until it's right.

1

RugTumpington t1_iuft7gg wrote

Replying to Evn-erl (#353,131)

> actual recession where unemployment goes up

Ok but that's not what a recession is defined by. The unemployment is when the pendulum is swinging back to lower inflation via low demand

1

RugTumpington t1_iuftga0 wrote

Replying to bannannamo (#360,899)

> Well 40 years strong of that not happening in this country as we continuously inflate, because our currency is inflationary by design.

You just fundamentally don't understand what you're talking about. It's not about bringing prices down, that would be a deflationary economy (negative inflation/CPI). Deflationary forces (e.x. lowering demand) are needed to lower inflation (the cost of good goes up but more slowly).

It has literally never been about making things cheaper than a year ago.

2

ImPinos t1_iufuc3j wrote

Graph is amazeballs, an inverse Burry

3

Wise_Distribution_24 t1_iufux4h wrote

Things is monkeys without a crystal ball are very shitty at predicting the future. With a crystal ball it's the same outcome.

1

OMG_A_COW t1_iufvqpo wrote

One day, consensus will be right. I too, draw astrology lines, to drink my own koolaid and share my dreams with others.

4

Antique-Flight-5358 t1_iufywnk wrote

Sad thing is this people actually get paid a lot to make guesses...even if they are wrong.

2

Tristanna t1_iufzun0 wrote

Replying to sarkagetru (#362,110)

As far as I understand it on paper everything works out. If it didn't I would think that would have been discovered so it should be just a matter of time and money and this year has been a boom for fusion investment by industry standards.

0

business_lit_101 t1_iug1dtk wrote

All models and economic systems fail to account for the one constant across all. Greed. EVERY system works, except for greed. Pure socialism works, if leaders don't get greedy. Monarchy works if the king doesn't get greedy. Now, where's my cut?

1

sqgeafvfasvefvfevfsa t1_iug4jxn wrote

Paying back debt is deflationatory and everyone has lots to pay back whether it’s the government, companies, or households. There’s more pent up deflation than inflation. Eventually the interest rates will be felt, it just takes a while. The debt market is huge, and it can’t sustain high rates for an extended time. The economists might be wrong, but there’s a reason most think we’ll see it come down. A good chunk of the inflation was due to one off stimulus while the deflation has been building for 40 years because of globalization

6

throwaway0891245 t1_iug7du9 wrote

The blue and green lines would be flapping all over the place were it not for the red lines weighing them down.

1

elhabito t1_iugakwy wrote

Replying to Tristanna (#364,388)

The new generation of toroids are currently under construction. There's a good YouTube video about it, they come together piece by piece. They have made net positive, but it's not remotely cost effective.

1

CoxHazardsModel t1_iuggfkt wrote

Well, idk about other sectors but in medical device distribution/manufacturing we’ve seen significant price reduction due to lower commodity prices in China, FX favorability and low ocean freight, however my employer hasn’t passed this cost reduction down to our customers (B2B). So I do think price stabilization is coming soon if this is similar in other markets.

1

cricket_observer t1_iuggz8t wrote

US will perpetually be stuck 6%+ , maybe even 8%. There’s no way back, we live in an economy which is extremely scarce in production. Even 60% demand destruction won’t do much.

Only way to even contain it below 6% is perhaps depressing the economy severely, i.e. 20% unemployment which is impossible.

2

Ok-Escape-8376 t1_iugjes5 wrote

They have to make the situation sound better going into midterm elections.

1

ATDoel t1_iugjrdz wrote

Almost all of these forecasts were during a pandemic and before the Ukraine war.

Of course they were all over the place.

0

_ThatsMyQuant t1_iugkadw wrote

Fed can’t stop Russian Invasion. Fed can’t stop China’s COVID policy.

Only a US President with some savvy has the ability to maybe alleviate those two gigantic influencers on inflation. First one would’ve been prevented had we kept drilling for oil here but China 🤷‍♂️.

It’s as simple as that. Fed has no handle on this situation

5

TheRealAlexLifeson t1_iugofzz wrote

good post - i saw this the other day (on the web not here) and was really drawn to this. I think i have it hanging in my office somewhere with my prediction lines. Where do you think we'll be come july of next year?

1

ipassedthe65 t1_iugpbe0 wrote

There's so many of you guys have so much trouble with this concept?

I guess you'll get to watch it play out over the next 6 to 9 months

1

yui0402 t1_iugqtrb wrote

Inflation may go down a bit, but making another top next year lol

2

globalRick t1_iugqwsk wrote

Almost as if these experts are writing reports to show what their boss and their bosses boss wants to hear, so that the American public doesn’t freak out and mass sell. The higher it goes the steeper their projections on the reduction LOL.

1

Nieshtze t1_iugxfk9 wrote

Replying to Evn-erl (#353,131)

I am well-regarded in the field of macroeconomics, and i predict that inflation will remain high for the next 4-5 years till the economy reflects the amount of money printed by central banks throughout the world, and then stabilize.

5

TheRealAlexLifeson t1_iugy383 wrote

Replying to Nieshtze (#373,426)

I went about a week ago and got like 3 2 dollar menu items and a 1$ cheese rollup thing and it was like 6.58 or something like that. It filled me up so i was impressed that i could do that with 6 bucks still especially these days.

2

Nieshtze t1_iugz7a0 wrote

Replying to _ThatsMyQuant (#370,052)

Russian invasion is the sacrificial lamb at the altar. America is insulated enough from Russia to not be affected this much.

The main reason for this inflation is due to central banks all over the world that printed literal truckloads of money during the COVID that is slowly making its presence known.

4

Nieshtze t1_iugzcj9 wrote

Replying to TheRealAlexLifeson (#373,686)

3x $2 items and $1 cheese roll up, along with tax adding up to $6.58? I see that you are well regarded in the field of elementary mathematics.

Overall, I do agree though, taco bell does give some of the best value fast food.

4

ashakar t1_iuh4y5a wrote

It's not ever going to just magically go away until rates get high enough to reward saving to the point your saved money at least doesn't lose purchasing power and/or enough people lose their jobs to destroy enough demand. Job losses may not be the answer though as those potentially come with drops in productivity or future productivity.

History has shown us once a supply shock kicks off inflation, rates need to rise above the level of inflation before there is any significant downward trend in inflation. It doesn't matter if the initial shock is still around or not. It's a lot like getting shot, even if the bullet is removed, you've still got a lot more to do to recover.

Unfortunately this means the fed isn't even close to done raising rates. Even JPow was full of Hopium that the inflation would just magically go away. Unfortunately it's a vicious feedback loop that only higher rates can effectively fix right now.

1

hjames9 t1_iuh7tv6 wrote

Replying to Nieshtze (#373,536)

I would agree with this if it wasn't for the fact that we didn't see any inflation until the covid lockdowns and reopening. It does feel like once supply chain issues work itself out, inflation should drop.

2

DustinKli t1_iuhd1l4 wrote

This is why I'm skeptical of buying stocks right.

1

Evn-erl t1_iuhgzj5 wrote

Replying to Nieshtze (#373,536)

Idk man, we are already starting to see home prices stabilize and drop, along with that lumber and construction supplies…

“Until the economy reflects the amount of money printed by central banks throughout the world”

Yes…large dynamic systems made up of an almost infinite amount of individuals processes, assets, etc are clearly known for the capacity of thoughtful introspection

Edit: sorry I read your comment wrong. I thought you said reflects on, as if the economy was taking a good hard look at itself in the mirror, lol, my bad

2

Evn-erl t1_iuhh6nt wrote

Replying to Glittering-Tooth-836 (#371,254)

Yes everything is a fun house, nothing is real, there are no general rules or basics. Everything is imaginary. Everyone is lying to to. Now go to the farm supply store and buy some drugs for this flu season and continue to take pride in rejecting any sort of acquired human knowledge.

1

wisle-n-out t1_iuhqvu5 wrote

Replying to Infamous_Sympathy_91 (#365,112)

Point taken, but what should we do with that point?

If you consider the point and take corrective action, you risk zigging when the consensus is telling you to zag. Then if you suffer a loss people and perhaps you, yourself, will ask why you went against the consensus. The point is not exactly suggesting you should throw away all consensus, but it's a step in that direction.

1

iced_maggot t1_iuhsm57 wrote

This just in: hopium (including professionally peddled hopium) has no basis in reality and is actually a crock of shit.

1

chaosgrunt03 t1_iuhwldr wrote

Inflation will “drop” now just because yoy the spike happened this time last year. Prices aren’t dropping, we’ve just made it 12 months at this rate of inflation.

1

_Forgotten t1_iuhwzvj wrote

Where can I buy calls on inflation?

1

babihrse t1_iuhxzhm wrote

Replying to Ok-Negotiation3683 (#353,471)

I've been planning for a big fucking recession but the thing that upsets me was the big inflation that made a fool of me. The money I've been saving up for a recession to get all the works done on my gaff now probably won't pay for it even in a recession

1

babihrse t1_iuhygj0 wrote

Replying to 5_minute_major (#353,349)

China doesn't wanna work for pennies soldering cheap lights anymore China is also going through massive issues of its own. So stuff gets expensive quick. You've gotten it spot on. The best years are all gone behind us.

1

pablogmanloc t1_iui03n7 wrote

Lies, right? we have short memories and tend not to call out those that tell us these little lies...

1

5_minute_major t1_iui07ul wrote

Replying to numba1mrdata (#371,099)

It matters about where the world is headed, not what the numbers are right now. Biden is absolutely putting China in the crosshairs with his latest move to require licenses for chip technology.

1

numba1mrdata t1_iui34m5 wrote

Replying to 5_minute_major (#383,794)

The longer timeline you look at the more globalized we'll become. 5, 10, 20 years...borders are going to be a lot less meaningful. It's inevitable, it benefits too many people's pocketbooks to not happen.

1

xlz193 t1_iui9kkl wrote

Replying to Tristanna (#359,992)

It’s not that revolutionary. Fusion would just be another type of power plant that costs billions of dollars. Same as exactly what we have right now

1

Tristanna t1_iuiajfo wrote

Replying to xlz193 (#386,518)

Everything I have read indicates that Fusion (if achieved) would be much more productive in terms of hor much energy is yielded and would leave near none radioactive by-products. If true, I think that is huge

1

w3bCraw1er t1_iujslt3 wrote

I still don’t understand this inflation. Seems like artificially created and there is artificial solutions which are unnecessarily punishing the wrong people.

It’s just that I don’t understand this “recession”. It’s really that bad or this is forced recession?

1