Viewing a single comment thread. View all comments

PopperChopper OP t1_iuhotx7 wrote

Reply to comment by OneDollar1- in $ABNB puts or calls? Earnings play. by PopperChopper

Harder to book because of high demand or less units?

I wonder what their user growth (or decline) is looking like. I think this will be a huge indicator for price movement.

I agree it’s risky however their earnings estimates are ~1.45 which is significantly higher than the previous 3 quarters so it will be hard to hit. Even a slight miss with bad forwards will be devastating to the price.

5

OneDollar1- t1_iuhp3n3 wrote

I see your points but also remember this is usually their best report, which is probably the reason for the higher estimate. I’d also say harder to book for demand. Two times we found a place, and by the time we shared it with the people we are going with to get their thoughts by the time we went back to book, usually only a day later, it was already booked. We finally just grabbed one when we saw another we liked. I’m sure it’s location dependent. I am long term bearish on them but it does seem right now they are doing okay.

4

PopperChopper OP t1_iuhpzyb wrote

May the tendie gods be with you then. I think you have a pretty decent shot of being correct. I think the estimates are particularly optimistic though it’s not based on rubbish with travel stocks going up and 3q being their best quarter typically.

Though with the loftier expectations, a fall will be more dramatic so it can play into the put option. Max pain for Friday is 115 and put call ratio is near parity with a leading edge to the bulls. One would think, based on what you are saying, that there would be disparity towards the call side of the option chain.

3