PopperChopper OP t1_iuhfiij wrote on October 31, 2022 at 11:03 AM

Reply to comment by LoneClap in $ABNB puts or calls? Earnings play. by PopperChopper

That’s actually the one thing I forgot to include - my fear that I’m about 1 quarter too early for this thesis

MathematicianKey5605 t1_iuhgi83 wrote on October 31, 2022 at 11:15 AM

I was just gonna say you might be 1 quarter too early on this. But hey, your puts might print? I dunno

PopperChopper OP t1_iuhh0jk wrote on October 31, 2022 at 11:20 AM

So if I fuck up I should double down next quarter?

gamesexposed t1_iuhhk9r wrote on October 31, 2022 at 11:26 AM

This is the regarded mentality that I come here for. Someone's telling you your thesis is probably trash but you're ready to proceed anyways and double down when you already know you're going to lose LMAO

Stay smooth regard, I look forward to your slip n slide

PopperChopper OP t1_iuhhtmy wrote on October 31, 2022 at 11:29 AM

To be completely honest with you, the fact that everyone here is a little bit iffy on the play absolutely fuels my confirmation bias

gamesexposed t1_iuhi0sw wrote on October 31, 2022 at 11:32 AM

Believe it or not, there's some well aged brain wrinkles around these parts...

But hey, you do you and godspeed fellow crayon enjoyer

PopperChopper OP t1_iuhinf5 wrote on October 31, 2022 at 11:39 AM

Well the only substantive counterpoint someone has put forward so far is that October is typically their best earnings coming off of the summer month. Which I have already taken into account. It may be enough to maintain or elevate the current market sentiment. However overall I think there are currently more things working against that overall sentiment then for it. Obviously it’s a getting game however I don’t think anyone has provided any points that renders the theory meritless

Edit: EPS estimates also look particularly high this quarter