Submitted by DaddyDersch t3_yipr1v in wallstreetbets
Happy Halloween! What a frightfully boring day today was… This honestly was one of the worst choppy range days I have seen in months. The total range for today on SPY was $3.14… usually we see that level of movement on the opening candle of SPY.
The question remains where are we headed?
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Thank you to u/80hz14 for posting this in the chat today… as you can see we have a few possible scenarios and outcomes for Wednesdays FOMC meeting. Overall I would say I am in the 75bps hike and a dovish presser where jpow hints at a 50bps in December. I think we should see a 3%+ green day on Wednesday. I would be pretty shocked with rising inflation to see JPOW drop a 50bps but honestly it could happen for other reasons.
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Today we saw an extreme small range day (only 39% of the 10 day average) inside day that closed as a gravestone doji. With 388.6 remaining as resistance I will be looking for downside until SPY can break free and close over that resistance level. Today we did see that the 386/ 3880 level on futures was impressively strong support. Any time SPY came anywhere near that we would see a pretty impressive pop.
Overnight and tomorrow those will be our clear “breakout/ down” levels. From there it depends on which way markets want take us. We very well could end up with an equally as annoying range day tomorrow. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a small pullback tomorrow down to the 380 range. The last few FOMCs the two days leading up to it have provided a small pullback.
Key support- 385 -> 380.1 -> 378
Key resistance- 388.6 -> 390.2 -> 393
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Futures also had an extremely choppy overnight and intraday today. However, its daily char is closing with a double top right at 3910 and just under the daily 100ema resistance of 3925. With holding that key support of 3770 all day today we will look to those two key levels tomorrow to guide us on what direction we are going to be headed tomorrow.
Its not impossible to believe that markets could rally tomorrow with hopeful whispers of FOMC on Wednesday but the historical trend would point to slight downside (risk off) leading into FOMC.
Key support- 3870 -> 3845 -> 3800
Key resistance- 3925 -> 3975
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Not much of a surprise after that’s unbelievable Friday that Apple had we had a pretty nice pullback on Apple, although it looks more impressive than it actually was being that Apple only closed down 1.54%.
Apple is at a key level right here fighting between the daily 200ema of 153.4 and the daily 100ema of 152.2. Historically when it comes to Apple interacting with the 200ema it is a fight that lasts for a few trading days as the daily 200ema on Apple is a major major pivot point. I have not seen too many times where it takes a straight trend line down or up over the daily 200ema.
Key support- 151 -> 148
Key resistance- 153.4 -> 155.8 -> 157.4
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Tesla remains a tricky one to get a good read on, however, as you can see we are maintaining a pretty consistent red sideways consolidation channel from 205 to 230. We have now see our 4th day in a row of Tesla rejecting the daily 20ema and refusing to close over it. However, this is now the 4th day in a row that it has closed over the daily 8ema. As you can see we are in a pretty impressive red bull channel here, however, that blue resistance and red support lines are forming a really nice rising wedge.
Until Tesla can breakout and most importantly close over the daily 20ema I remain bearish on it. My anticipation would be that we see a move one way or another tomorrow. Key support for that red bull channel is 224.8 tomorrow which is also the 3 day support line and previous resistance line. While its not impossible I would be surprised to see Tesla hold between 230 resistance 224.8 support.
Key support- 224.8 -> 219.3
Key resistance- 230 -> 234.2
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You gotta love the VIX this thing just defies all logic. I am actually surprised with FOMC in two days to see the VIX unwind more like it did today, however, the VIX actually had a really impressive spike at open and closed down with a nice inside day… one of those odd days where the 10year yield, DXY and VIX were all red and SPY was red.
Some of the issue I saw today was that over all price action, volume and momentum opened pretty bearish this morning, however, the VIX continued to unwind and I believe that led to a lot of this choppy tight range price action. The VIX is currently holding right at the same level it was prior to last FOMC where the day before fomc closed at a VIX of 27.15.
Overall no real sense of direction for SPY tomorrow as until FOMC happens the market in my opinion is not going to play nicely and not play by the technicals.
FOMC day is setting up to be a really nice day for some nice wins, I have posted that TA and trade plan/ analysis. Make sure you give it a read!
10% challenge-
Today was a really tough day for me today. Actual scalp wise I did do fairly well today, however, I had my level to level calls from Friday that I should have closed the Tesla calls green this morning (regrets) and I actually ended up closing them pretty early this morning when pretty much everything pointed to downside… only for them to pop up right after I closed them. If it wasn’t for those two woulda been a decent day despite the hard price action.
I also thing that’s something that is going to catch this market by surprise here very soon and possibly even tomorrow for pretty much the last week or two now the price action of SPY in the mornings has been pretty bearish and has also been support by volume too. However, by 11ish we have seen a complete snap of trend and 180 reversal… today just chopped instead of broke out. I wonder if we get a slight sell off tomorrow as people get caught thinking its time to buy the morning weakness.
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Closing out my most profitable month of the year and also one that I do not plan to attempt to beat. Great month with some great plays. Keeping in mind that my average % gain per trade was still only 12.7% for the month. This wasn’t so much about getting random massive winners… though I had some nice wins in there too… it was more about consistent small gains that have added up over time and most importantly limiting downside risk with a -20% stop loss.
I posted my article about that this weekend but something to keep in mind is that just because I use a -20% stop loss on my scalps doesn’t mean that is right for you. You have to find what works for your strategy and your overall profits/ trade. The whole theory is though that you can have an extremely successful strategy but if one loser wipes out all of your weeks profits or numerous days of profits then you need to manage your risk better. It’s a balancing act of having a lose enough stop to not stop out too quickly (especially on my level to level plays) BUT not having such a big stop loss that it hits and the loss takes numerous trades to overcome.
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Mostly for my own records but I am going to starts separating my scalps and my level to level trades from eachother and this month of November I really wanna analyze the comparison of them and everything more closely.
No youtube tonight! Its Halloween taking the little pumpkins out for trick or treating…
mzdog14 t1_iuk8y0v wrote
One thing to remember for Wednesday - the fed has a mandate not to influence elections. While nothing the fed is doing right now will actually influence an election 6 days later, you might hear more optimistic nothingburgers than usual, just to hold the status quo.
I’m personally playing a couple weeklies to the effect of SPY +3-5% and I’ll look for low 400s and/or a vix of 22-20 before going (more) bearish. Might get burnt, but I’m ok with it as I’m long term bearish into Q1. Day trading this week is gonna be painful - lost my only trade today to a -18% stop loss only to go green 20min later oh well