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erickssm t1_jeeagik wrote

Here is a different view of the same data.

https://preview.redd.it/81jyzvb4v3ra1.png?width=1138&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=d362b03e143abdfa05808eb87c0f92fb6c8d7a04

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JPowsSecretlover OP t1_jeebjfl wrote

This might be my Burry momentimg

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FVMAzalea t1_jeemcwz wrote

Nah, you do sort of have a point. As those deposits grew in the last few years, banks bought assets (like bonds) with them. Now those assets are worth less (though not worthless) so there can be (and has been) damage from the pace of withdrawals, not just the amount of withdrawals relative to the total.

Not sure if your graph is absolute outflows or net outflows across all banks though. If I withdraw $1M from First Republic and put it into Chase, the net outflow is $0 but the total outflow is $1M.

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bnh1978 t1_jeep0j9 wrote

Added to this is that the depository reserves were reduced to 0% in early 2020.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/reservereq.htm

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DerpyMcOptions t1_jefgghf wrote

Makes you wonder how many of the shitcoin/stablecoin brokers are basically insolvent b/c they all claimed to have cash positions in the form of T bills....

So really, are they pumping BTC through fake printing of more shitcoins to cash out their BTC and liquidate personal holdings before they announce the collapse of stablecoins all before the public figures it out?

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ultralane t1_jefyjsl wrote

T Bills are never considered as cash and any audit firm worth an ounce would have a friendly discussion with management and a disclosure to the public (if the issue isn't rectified).

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DerpyMcOptions t1_jeg695o wrote

Circle literally has it on their website they consider T bills as cash equivalent balances which is locked up as short term treasuries held at custodians like blackrock etc.

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ultralane t1_jega5nb wrote

I had gotten my treasury investments mixed up. If a maturity is going to be matured in 3 months, then the t-bill can be considered as cash. Otherwise its a short-term investment.

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DerpyMcOptions t1_jegfbqj wrote

They make no mention they were of 3-mo they could be 2yr dated and either way; if due as payment B4 maturity that would mean significant losses piled up and liquidated at losses. This means any of these dumb shitcoin/stablecoin which nosedive frequently are all false pegs and not stable.

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ultralane t1_jeglyty wrote

T-bills always mature within a year. Treasury notes lasts from 2 - 5 years. Treasury bonds are longer.

T-Bills are liquid assets, but I would definitely pause if they don't have the standard 3 month rule that everyone else normally applies.

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DerpyMcOptions t1_jegoiyr wrote

Circles site doesn't specifically mention t bills, they actually just say treasuries.

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DerpyMcOptions t1_jegou8w wrote

Q, why the fuck are you bothering to try and defend random shitcoins when you won't even go look it up?

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ultralane t1_jegshw1 wrote

I never said I was defending. If a maturity is maturing in 3 months or less, its allowed to be in Cash on their financial statements, assuming that it is disclosed on what's included. The lack of a hard and fast time rule is what is sticking out to me, assuming Reddit is stating the footnote correctly. The 3 month rule is applicable to 99.999999% of companies that follow GAAP. I really don't have an interest in going through some random companies FS. Just stating what is standard.

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bulldozer1 t1_jeewjm3 wrote

Idk why this sub wants there to be a banking crisis and recession so badly

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PerpPartyLines t1_jeex5o5 wrote

Diamond hands puts holders scratching the screens on their Blackberrys

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OrionJohnson t1_jeex6g0 wrote

I mean, even on this chart you can see that deposits have never had a serious prolonged downward trend like we are in now.

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erickssm t1_jef07r5 wrote

It also shows we never had such a massive spike before as well. It is completely expected to have some reversion after such a massive inflow during 2020-21. That drawdown is precisely why we haven't seen a recession yet. People had a nice cushion to lean on when inflation started to squeeze consumers.

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Cleanbadroom t1_jef3oim wrote

That looks like the soft landing I have been hearing about. We've already had a banking crisis back in 2008. I think this time we should switch it up and have a different kind of crisis. The last recession was pretty great.

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memestockwatchlist t1_jef3omv wrote

So deposits exploded higher after the stimmies but it's been shaky the past six months or so? Does this totally contradict OP or am I blind?

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caughtinthought t1_jefa9gs wrote

This view doesn't show the decline in ops graphic. 600B would be significant even on the fred chart

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BlackSquirrel05 t1_jefps9w wrote

Well it's a 600 billion - in a sea that has swelled to 20 trillion.

Put that in a bit of perspective.

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caughtinthought t1_jegkeua wrote

It's 2T between each of the y ticks. 600B would be over a quarter of that. It would be very obvious.

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davesmith001 t1_jefd3rr wrote

And yet the fed claims to not be able to spot inflation. Those clowns are treasonously regarded.

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jinqsi t1_jeg2d02 wrote

Yep. This accounts for ~3% decline in deposits from Feb 2023 according to a quick google search.

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lhzvan t1_jegdxkl wrote

except thats not the same data

its like saying distance travelled and the accelaration are the same data, theyre not

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