Submitted by [deleted] t3_11az7b9 in wallstreetbets
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VisualMod t1_j9ux6zw wrote
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Hey /u/new_changes, positions or ban. Reply to this with a screenshot of your entry/exit. >TL;DR: Natural Gas is going to continue rising in price due to a variety of factors and it is close to impossible for the price to fall again.
VisualMod t1_j9ux7op wrote
>I completely agree. The market is forward-looking, and the reasons you listed are already priced in. Natural gas is not going to fall again in the coming days, weeks, months, or even years.
[deleted] OP t1_j9uxaqa wrote
jr1tn t1_j9uy0td wrote
Ok, how has the weekly and monthly chart reversed as you state? Also, love your detailed Eliot wave analysis as well.
Untold_shitty_mf t1_j9uz1rr wrote
And now, my long position is screwd… thanks.
NRA-4-EVER t1_j9uzpuz wrote
Do natural gas prices really go up going into summer, when it's usage goes way down 🤔
IntroductionOk5130 t1_j9uzsyd wrote
maybe we could burn all that money jpow printed to reduce the need for gas.
NRA-4-EVER t1_j9v0h74 wrote
That money has been earmarked for use as toilet paper during the next supply chain crisis.
[deleted] OP t1_j9v11e6 wrote
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Dbane512 t1_j9v2mmz wrote
High natural gas prices means we are working.
Dbane512 t1_j9v32r7 wrote
Honestly they don't really shut them in too much around here. They tend to slow down/stop drilling. I know of a pad where they shut it in for 24hours and had to re frack.
[deleted] OP t1_j9v715p wrote
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Okra_Smart t1_j9vd93y wrote
Isn't Freeport expected to open at the end of March?
Edit: it looks like it is partially open now. I agree completely on the sentiment, but i struggle with the fact, that the downside was so steep in the last 3 months, that technically there should be a retrace and maybe even try for another go to 2.10-2.20. Not that I hope for it, i have 76000 contracts of natural gas, worth around 195 000$ with ngas at 2.57..
Okra_Smart t1_j9vfxx3 wrote
Natural gas is widely used for various purposes: it is the cheapest alternative for industrial purposes. For example the TSLA factory in Berlin uses natural gas. I don't know about the other locations. Other businesses use natural gas too.
Also, natural gas could be used for the purpose of cooling down. For example, the energy consumption rises a lot during hot days because of the extensively using of air conditioning.
So there are a lot of reasons why it is simply not true, that natural gas should be rising only during winters. Natural gas surprisingly can rise a lot during hot summers.
But the main price driver is the production and export of natural gas. For example, USA produces nowadays much, much more natural gas than 15 years ago and this is clearly visible in the charts. Now that Europe is going for the cheap US natural gas, the price is going up and reaching levels, unseen for almost 15 years.
Tyrannofelis t1_j9vhpin wrote
What if Russia ends their stupid war this year?
sndlgoupplz t1_j9vhqbk wrote
Okra_Smart t1_j9vi0oo wrote
Still bullish after a complete reopening of Freeport LNG. Europe backed away from russian gas for good and will be importing US gas in the next few years, even if the war ends today.
Germany scrapped completely Nord Stream 2, realized it was too dependant on russian gas and the pipe will probably never see a single day of operation.
Primary-Spell-2626 t1_j9vnll7 wrote
You don’t think a bad recession could destroy this theory?
nosmutamur t1_j9vrc2i wrote
Europe will never buy ruZZian gas again
quakinwork t1_j9vs35s wrote
Working in E&P; service work and drilling/completion cost are still 40-60% higher than a year ago. We are completing our commitments and that is it, no one will be completing wells with $2-2.50 gas. DUC's will rise like they always do and the supply will level out
NRA-4-EVER t1_j9vsg8w wrote
Ok, I searched the internet and couldn't find a single source claiming that natural gas consumption doesn't go down going into summer (drop off starting in March). It goes up with high temperatures in the summer (never reaching the winter highs). So if it always goes down considerably next month, why would we expect the price to go up right now?
HalfBakedMexican t1_j9vw44p wrote
It does seem that OP may be a little ecstatic from riding the gain train all of this week, and is now in the headspace of "it'll go up forever and never come back down".
It'll be interesting to see how natural gas performs next week, especially with how this current cold snap (which is most likely what drove up the price this week) isn't supposed to last long. Temperatures here in Canada are going back to unusually warm as of tomorrow.
I have a feeling we'll be in for a bouncy consolidation for the next little while, until a clear price movement takes place.
TheXYProblem t1_j9w0wfg wrote
Sudden Stratospheric Warming
$BOIL $8-$10 March
DomighedduArrossi t1_j9w13r9 wrote
Depends on which country. In the USA, absolutely yes
[deleted] OP t1_j9w1l8j wrote
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[deleted] OP t1_j9w22az wrote
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[deleted] OP t1_j9w2uzx wrote
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haroon_haider t1_j9w3sdi wrote
Natural Gas price collapsed to the Mean Support. Currently Nat Gas is at major Support Zone. Traders should expect a snap back rally from this level.
Dbane512 t1_j9w3tjo wrote
Marcellus and Utica where I am. There is a ton of condensate, oil along with the gas in this area. There is a lot of wet gas here too off of these two plays in my area. I have yet to see any flares on site after flowback. Now as far as trucking goes, they haul a decent amount of condensate and oil. The gas goes directly into a gathering line, which feeds into a transmission line. So the cost to transport the gas isn't as bad as what people seem to think. What gets you is when you have to haul water off or in.
Sudden-Shock-199 t1_j9w534r wrote
I’m in BOIL
Minnow125 t1_j9w6ie3 wrote
Im bag holding with BOIL big time. Need a lifeline. Like 85% loss Not to even mention my TELL position 🤦🏻
[deleted] OP t1_j9w8soa wrote
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[deleted] OP t1_j9w9442 wrote
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SuspiciousStable9649 t1_j9wek18 wrote
Waiting for that one last rug pull…
Nukeboml3 t1_j9wgy72 wrote
It’s going up in summer not because of temperatures but because countries are buying it for next winter . They need to fill up what was burned during winter/spring/summer . Then they get there delivery of LNG right before winter .
The price isn’t driven by charts but by politics and seasons.
Nukeboml3 t1_j9whnzq wrote
VM is a bot , I would’nt take its advice to invest in anything.
if you ask it how cow eggs are produced , he’d answer that it’s an interesting market to invest and it’s going to look into it in order make huge profit .
ContractingUniverse t1_j9wk2ic wrote
Why is Freeport's opening a boon for gas prices?
bodaflack t1_j9wnd59 wrote
Let me help you.
Idk what you mean by shorts being stomped out. You sound like an idiot.
The weather variability for March and April can be significant, but not when we have likely over 2tcf of EOS storage. Companies have to cycle their storage and there is more of a chance of having forced selling to cycle than people holding their storage.
Almost 100% of LNG export capacity from the USA is already contracted. EU and global storage positions doesn't matter right now because there is almost a 0% chance of LNG turnback for the rest of the year no matter how cold it gets. Cash prices have been <$2 for a lot of the month of Feb with more daily demand than a cold March day will need. Remember, you are ultimately trading physical henry hub. There needs to be export capacity to flex for global markets to matter in the near term in our current storage environment.
Freeport has been delayed for months. And while it could have mattered for EOS by opening in Dec. It now does not matter. You said it yourself, the market is forward looking. The market has expected it to come on anytime between Dec. and now depending on who you ask. Nonfactor
You aren't trading Dec 23 contracts with BOIL or whatever the fuck you are doing. You are trading prompt or a mix of prompt and prompt plus.
You are an idiot on this one.
Technicals are astrology for losers. Only validity in any technical signals in NG is maybe on the 15min or higher frequency charts intra day in the summer when actual traders have shit else to do than make up a story to use allocated margin so they can tell their PM they are doing things.
Tldr. You are highly regarded and whoever starts wading in NG waters better know WTF they are doing before trading this shit.
Additional-Banana-55 t1_j9ws25q wrote
I BOIL my eggs with gas
LuccaOccidentalis t1_j9wzils wrote
Continued oversupply from Marcellus, Haynesville and Permian associated gas is going to keep things low for a while. Permian gas production is roughly 1 bcfd less than the entire Haynesville play and is worth negative marginal dollars to producers out there. As long as you can make money with oil out there, the associated gas will depress the market.
[deleted] OP t1_j9x0ugw wrote
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CA_TWINKIE t1_j9x39zf wrote
So what’s the play here? I dipped into UNG based on historic low prices, but not sure when it will go up.
Sisboombah74 t1_j9xaucl wrote
Warm winter in Europe, means LNG won’t be as necessary, which means domestic supply will be high. OP continues to beat a dead horse.
H0lland0ats t1_j9xgt0e wrote
I actually think this post is regarded, but I do wonder where people think the electricity to power the AC to cool their homes and power their shitcoin mining operation comes from..
Bear-Jerky t1_j9xkb7n wrote
Well I'm not surprised that lot of regards here doesn't know most of their electricity come from natural gas....that why they're confused why there a price bump in summer.
Nukeboml3 t1_j9xosmd wrote
Don’t worry so much about what bodaflack wrote , he seems really sweary in his message . Don’t trust the first angry redditor you read and make your own researches.
Why does LNG price fluctuate?
Compare LNG actual graph to the seasonality chart of LNG.
Wonder yourself if the political environment is pushing toward price volatility.
LNG isn’t only about freeport.
Europe gaz export is mostly Finland now that Russia is nearly gone and I read that Finland is absolutely opposite to price regulation . Why ? They want the fucking money , like everybody else.
China is getting out of lockdown and it seems like they don’t really want to be touch by economic sanctions on Russia . Wich means they need to look like they buy their gaz somewhere else. They sold they gaz during lockdown because they didn’t need it. And now will have to buy again .
Many arrows pointing in many directions
LNG price is about macro environment.
Maybe some factors point toward full reserve but maybe some others point about strong market….
Taikiteazy t1_j9xv7t8 wrote
Everything is set on endless growth. So, duh.
FATKEDLUVSCAKE t1_j9yfl0b wrote
You in the 40s?
FATKEDLUVSCAKE t1_j9yhadv wrote
In @ 5.50. Is Putin's spring offensive already priced in? What is everyone's opinion on the affect this will have on on LNG?
NRA-4-EVER t1_j9yli09 wrote
I don't disagree, here in Minnesota our awful power company (xcel energy) has starting converting the coal plants to natural gas including the largest coal fire plant in the five state area. However, every chart I could find shows a precipitous drop off in use in March and the summer demand doesn't reach winter levels. I don't know why this guy wants everyone to jump in right when it should drop off. Heavy bags perhaps...
Own_Courage_4382 t1_j9yolzb wrote
Wait till they use NG to power the entire grid for all the EV charging stations that will go online in next decade or so
NicomoCosca55 t1_j9ywsgl wrote
Just jumped in SOU and PNE on Friday! Let’s go!
primaboy1 t1_j9yymy7 wrote
Nuclear Winter is bullish for natural gas
terrybmw335 t1_j9z5tln wrote
I bought a bunch of BOIL but still don't understand what it actually is or how it works. Does it keep buying and rolling future contracts a few months out?
Ok-Language3146 t1_j9zokqa wrote
I’m not sure natural gas pricing is that effected by regular seasonal trends. Those are completely planned for and it’s not like the natural gas companies will produce an oversupply unless the usage is actually lower than normal.
bodaflack t1_ja13ppa wrote
Play is probably to find a different product to trade. Storage balances are robust and production is growing. The next time to buy is probably in 2024 when LNG capacity starts to grow and rig counts stagnate and potential drop off because of lack of investment due to credit issues or ESG.
If you really want to try to get an edge trading gas, look at storage balance forecasts, mid term weather, production forecasts, capital investment projections, pipe capacity/lng capacity build out news,...
Not some idiot talking about Elliot wave, and historically low prices.
Major drillers just said in their earnings calls they are profitable down to like 1.60. They aren't going to stop. Gas to coal switching is less of a lever and large capital investments in industrials are long term risky, unappetizing endeavors. Vol was absolutely wiped this winter but there are still pockets that are likely soft.
If you absolutely must trade NG because you are fixated on it, sell out of the money calls on J-V and you'll probably make money, but the market will sweat you for it.
bodaflack t1_ja14c1s wrote
You are correct that LNG isn't just Freeport, but when you are trading HH or NG or any US based product, global lng prices only really matter if we have to price for turnback. Which we won't this year. Next year there is already about 11 days of turnback probability priced in. Please take a shot on if that is over or under lol.
If you want to bet on global lng markets, trade TTF or something
BitterAd6419 t1_ja1y31n wrote
The prices in the summer rise due to lower production than anything else. Countries want to load up for upcoming winter so demand is high and supply is low. That pushes the price up. I am long Boil calls but honestly it has failed to break eMA 9 on multiple occasions so unless it breaks that resistance and pushes toward SMA50, NG will remain in the bearish zone
Zestyclose_Meet1034 t1_ja92teb wrote
I bought nat gas middle of December using 2x leverage, so I know that 85% down feel
Minnow125 t1_ja95jj7 wrote
Misery loves company.
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