CA_TWINKIE t1_j9x39zf wrote on February 25, 2023 at 4:33 AM

Reply to comment by bodaflack in Close to Impossible for rise in Natural Gas prices to end by [deleted]

So what’s the play here? I dipped into UNG based on historic low prices, but not sure when it will go up.

Nukeboml3 t1_j9xosmd wrote on February 25, 2023 at 8:39 AM

Don’t worry so much about what bodaflack wrote , he seems really sweary in his message . Don’t trust the first angry redditor you read and make your own researches.

Why does LNG price fluctuate?

Compare LNG actual graph to the seasonality chart of LNG.

Wonder yourself if the political environment is pushing toward price volatility.

LNG isn’t only about freeport.

Europe gaz export is mostly Finland now that Russia is nearly gone and I read that Finland is absolutely opposite to price regulation . Why ? They want the fucking money , like everybody else.

China is getting out of lockdown and it seems like they don’t really want to be touch by economic sanctions on Russia . Wich means they need to look like they buy their gaz somewhere else. They sold they gaz during lockdown because they didn’t need it. And now will have to buy again .

Many arrows pointing in many directions

LNG price is about macro environment.

Maybe some factors point toward full reserve but maybe some others point about strong market….

bodaflack t1_ja14c1s wrote on February 26, 2023 at 1:35 AM

You are correct that LNG isn't just Freeport, but when you are trading HH or NG or any US based product, global lng prices only really matter if we have to price for turnback. Which we won't this year. Next year there is already about 11 days of turnback probability priced in. Please take a shot on if that is over or under lol.

If you want to bet on global lng markets, trade TTF or something

bodaflack t1_ja13ppa wrote on February 26, 2023 at 1:30 AM

Play is probably to find a different product to trade. Storage balances are robust and production is growing. The next time to buy is probably in 2024 when LNG capacity starts to grow and rig counts stagnate and potential drop off because of lack of investment due to credit issues or ESG.

If you really want to try to get an edge trading gas, look at storage balance forecasts, mid term weather, production forecasts, capital investment projections, pipe capacity/lng capacity build out news,...

Not some idiot talking about Elliot wave, and historically low prices.

Major drillers just said in their earnings calls they are profitable down to like 1.60. They aren't going to stop. Gas to coal switching is less of a lever and large capital investments in industrials are long term risky, unappetizing endeavors. Vol was absolutely wiped this winter but there are still pockets that are likely soft.

If you absolutely must trade NG because you are fixated on it, sell out of the money calls on J-V and you'll probably make money, but the market will sweat you for it.