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dolphinsgt61311 t1_j9e2vwo wrote

Great write up. Lots of great points. Let me ask you.. have you watched, listened or read anything from Dave Hunter the contrarian? He believes we markets melt up, prior to busting. What do you think of that?

His forecast is dependent on several things but mainly that inflation data surprises in that inflation is falling sharply. 10y treasury yields will follow, falling to 2.5% and then to 0. The melt up will take SPY to 600+, gold to 3k+, etc… and then a global bust, driving markets down 80%~

What do you think?

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DesmondMilesDant OP t1_j9eqx4t wrote

Thanks man. Sorry i don't know the guy. But ofc i know about this. I was the one who started invalidation cases saying "Disinflation trade of Stagflation" leads to ATH in no time. S&P5000 here we come and then a whooping -50% drop to $2500.🤣

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But there is a huge problem with this. Major component of CPI is housing which wont come down in 1H 2023. It's in the second half it can fall off the cliff if inflation isn't sticky. That means inflation can potentially stay here or start its mini uptrend in 1H 23. This will panic Fed and force them to go 5.5%. This is what i am trading. A 5.5% rates with 100bps Erp ( currently 15bps ) = PE 15-16. Current E = 225. This will mean testing of Oct lows.

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