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VisualMod t1_ja8fzxd wrote

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Total Submissions 10 First Seen In WSB 2 years ago
Total Comments 1348 Previous Best DD
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1

cbusoh66 OP t1_ja8g7ng wrote

Yep, those Fed hikes are really working and housing has really slowed down. /s

62

YellowCBR t1_ja8imoj wrote

The price cuts I've seen on new construction in my area is insane, like -20% in one fell swoop.

But the original asking prices were insane as well.

133

billm0066 t1_ja8ir67 wrote

BuT THe MaRKetS GuNNa CRASH!!!!!

Lets put things into perspective.

2007 before the crash there were 4 million homes for sale

2023 there is less than 1 million

Real estate is not crashing this time. No arms, little inventory, good credit, low dti, tons of equity, low rates. 10% unemployment will barely make a dent to real estate. Dont bet against real estate. Buy when rates are high if you can afford it, and refi in a few years when rates come down. If rates come down below 5.5% real estate will take off again. This is the dip.

26

Mariom2 t1_ja8rr4k wrote

Replying to OneFly1035 (#2,062,529)

It’s unsustainable for those people that had ARMs and those who were hit with big property tax influxes. Something has to break and it’s not going to be the interest rates or renters IMO.

18

OneFly1035 t1_ja8s460 wrote

Replying to Mariom2 (#2,065,138)

The ARM crisis will be in 5 years from now if rates are still high. I doubt many people had ARMs prior because rates were extremely low for a long period of times. Even those that did the ARMs now are capped at maximum rises total and per period.

12

robbinhood69 t1_ja8szii wrote

Replying to billm0066 (#2,062,719)

So i mean the rate of M/M declines has been the fastest on record

and we are like just a little whee bit into the slow down

why would you think the DOWNies trend would be reversed ? thus far, inventory being low has meant diddly squat compared to higher financing costs and everyones 401k being DOWNie

3

007baldy t1_ja8yngs wrote

Replying to OneFly1035 (#2,065,232)

Plus if they do the 5/1 or 7/1 arms, rates should be dropping in those time periods and they won't even be into the rate adjustment period before they can refinance at a lower fixed rate.

2

deeplevitation t1_ja8zkab wrote

Replying to billm0066 (#2,062,719)

This is the comment to read - go read Warren Buffets comments in 2007/2008 about housing. It was an oversupply problem as much anything and paired with risky lending practices. We are not nearly in the same position today. I don’t believe prices were due for a slight correction, but what happened in 2007/08 will not happen again in the near future

11

rp2012-blackthisout t1_ja9fkmz wrote

Replying to throwitawayCrypto (#2,068,477)

In mid-2022, adjustable-rate mortgages made up nearly 10% of all new home loan applications, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association

In 2000 it was 30%, in 2005 it was 35%.

But to help your case, in 2015 it was 5%. So yes, we're way off the highs and lows of ARMs.

8

sidewaysrebel14 t1_jaac84y wrote

Replying to billm0066 (#2,062,719)

This is why fed will have to raise rates higher than people think. Inventory will come from job loses, not mortgage rates. Have to hike til there’s massive layoffs of homeowners in order to provide the necessary correction

5

bearofwsb t1_jaafsyg wrote

Replying to theineffablebob (#2,081,024)

It’s probably the stock market rally that triggered this. I personally know three people who were waiting for their stocks to come back to their cost basis, before making the move. Those stocks positions could be liquidated to afford the down payment and a couple years of difference between monthly payments and paycheck.

19

rpnye523 t1_jaao3r2 wrote

This isn’t automatically signaling a bottom, people could very well be accepting less attractive offers out of fear of the market crashing

17

billm0066 t1_jaar2t2 wrote

Replying to Bluebirdx- (#2,063,127)

Compared to all time lows which means STILL LOW INVENTORY.

Who the fuck is buying a house right now? My 225k house is now worth 500k and I have an $1100 month mortgage payment. An upgraded house means a $3500 a month mortgage payment or higher. Fuck that. I will never sell this house. I would rent it before ever consider selling it.

3

gaurav0792 t1_jaat9zl wrote

I don't get it. Why did the Fed buy a shit ton of MBS and pump housing along with QE ?

Housing was already hot. What the fuck JEROME ?

19

5kyl3r t1_jaavwf4 wrote

Replying to TwoNine13 (#2,074,917)

yeah i keep downsizing and throwing crap out but it still seems to get worse with each move. i think there might be something to those minimalist travel vlogger people that don't own anything

4

PleaseCaIIMeSir t1_jab3wfj wrote

Where I live, you can’t even find the size of my house (1100 sq feet) and the lot it sits on for less than 1.6. I got it 2 years ago at 1.2. Some areas are still roaring.

2

No_Zookeepergame_27 t1_jab40dr wrote

These pending home sales were made in January when mortgage rates dropped to 6%. Things have slowed down again now mortgage rates are near 7%.

35

Theta_Ome t1_jab7b33 wrote

The headlines over the past week are so ALL OVER the place that I assume bankers are having mental break downs.

But I for sure know that none of them know what the heck is going on.

7

Hacking_the_Gibson t1_jabao4j wrote

Replying to billm0066 (#2,062,719)

The median home price has increased at a faster rate in the past two years than any time in the history of the data.

Home prices were flat from Q3 2016 through Q2 2020 when the printer got turned on full blast.

The only explanation is the printer. The printer has been off for a year, all that is left now is for the real estate sentiment to change when the job losses begin.

0

jdmulloy t1_jabcrz7 wrote

Replying to captiancb (#2,076,180)

He knew enough to stay away in the years prior to 2008. BH does have a resident realtor business, so he has some insights into how the market is doing. He's also explained that real estate investing isn't a good fit for him and BH because it's rarely mispriced at a discount like business/stocks are and BH has the wrong incorporation/tax structure for real estate ownership.

3

on_Jah_Jahmen t1_jabcycv wrote

1 raise rates 2. Growth companies and tech begin to cut spending 3. Less spending affects associated businesses 4. Businesses start cutting jobs due to slowdowns 5. People lose jobs 6. People try to look for new jobs and sell off nonessential assets while savings deplete 7. People sell their homes

We’re at like step 2, americans still have money and jobs still are easily obtainable. Also after a few years, homes sold due to divorce, employment changes, family issues, deaths etc especially since single family homes are generally bought by couples and not individuals.

6

jdmulloy t1_jabd39o wrote

Replying to billm0066 (#2,085,407)

Depending how much equity you have an how big of an upgrade you probably could get that payment lower than $3500. You'd have a big down payment selling the current house. Although if you have a nice rate that's a good incentive to stay put. Even going to a similarly priced house would increase your rate and cost.

0

Ragefan66 t1_jabi5vi wrote

Replying to CalyShadezz (#2,065,677)

I love how this idiot confidently says that JAN is peak buying season and another guy comes in with proof showing that it's literally the lowest fucking volume month every single year for home purchases lmao.

​

Absolute peak Reddit moment.

11

I_Am_Graydon t1_jacb8ws wrote

Lol poors hoping they will be able to buy our houses cheap 😂

3

VegetableSolid6767 t1_jacewp9 wrote

When your country lets in so many illegal immigrants, they’ll have to live somewhere. I’m sure that has a large role in the number.

−1

GandalfsGoon t1_jacha2c wrote

Lock in those rates before they go even higher

2

EatsRats t1_jacjksv wrote

OP’s portfolio surges 8.1% [after being down 78%].

2

backruptcyfomo t1_jacp0tp wrote

Most regards bought their house and think they can refinance in a year or two. img

2