If you want to get truly weather nerdy and the most detail possible, you have to read the National Weather Service Burlington office’s Area Forecast Discussion: https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Here is what they have to say:

> As of 330 PM EST Monday...One of the troughs set to impact the West Coast is expected to traverse eastward toward the Northeast to bring some precip to end the workweek. Models are starting to agree in some aspects, but overall have different placements/timing of surface low pressure and precip, and the ECMWF ensembles show a deeper trough than the GFS ensembles. While precip could start as snow Thursday morning, rain will likely mix in across the wider valleys as temperatures across the forecast area rise to the mid- to upper 30s. Some model soundings are showing the potential for ice, but at this time, it`s a low one and just something to keep in the back of mind. Ensembles show a good cluster of low pressure locations moving across the Ohio Valley and into the Great Lakes at this time, indicating the storm could pass to our west, providing a warmer (rainy) event. PoPs rising from 30-40% Thursday morning to 70-80% Thursday afternoon with highest values in the Northeast Kingdom, and surface winds will continue from the southeast.

> Rain continues to become the more likely precip type Thursday night as 925mb temperatures rise. Any snow would be isolated to terrain and the Northeast Kingdom. Overnight, ECMWF ensembles are showing low pressure locations track anywhere from Lake Ontario to northeastern Pennsylvania, while GFS ensembles are centered more from Lake Ontario northwest. This could be the best time of agreement on precip, so we have PoPs in the 80s and 90s % late in the night. Thursday night could also feature the highest winds of the event as a low level jet of 50-60 knots at 850mb passes overhead.

> By Friday morning, only the highest mountaintops have much of a chance for snow to fall with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s, and models do indicate the storm passes to our west. A secondary low, however, could develop along the Atlantic Coast and speed northwards to our east, allowing for some snow on the back end of the system as/after a cold front cross the region. This could depend greatly on how slow/fast the system moves, but we have all snow chances by Saturday in our forecast for now as the trough moves overhead, highs reach only the upper 20s to mid-30s, and winds turn westerly. The 12Z GFS came in with heavier snow than previously modeled, so this is certainly something we`ll be keeping an eye on. This late-storm forecast period has much less agreement among models and therefore less confidence in exact timing/placement of precip, so PoPs decrease. Hydro concerns are currently low with this event.

> The mid-upper trough could linger snow showers on Sunday, with highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s as well and a chilly northwesterly wind, but then ridging will be a dominant force for dry weather the rest of the long term period. Highs Monday will rise slightly into the lower 30s.