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HappilyhiketheHump t1_ixlyjpg wrote

No. The pace of construction is way behind demand, especially outside Chittenden County. Additionally, homes are still being purchased with cash for rental investment and second homes.
There may be a peak in sales in the next year or two, but Vermonts house prices have proven stable even through financial events like the 2008 crisis.

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ChefOk8428 OP t1_ixm1en3 wrote

Wow. Thanks for the assessment and history.

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Unique-Public-8594 t1_ixm2b50 wrote

Vermont is very popular right now because of how well we did (are doing) with covid, low population density, it’s natural beauty, clean air, for people fleeing red states, and because we’ve been designated as the state least likely to be impacted by climate change.

Might be more reasons. Those are the ones I know of.

It’s also not in the meth top 10. Source: https://healingproperties.org/meth-in-america-state-by-state/

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1DollarOr1Million t1_ixm7ego wrote

The above is mostly correct except I think right now we are in a plateau due to both the interest rates being high and AirBnB bookings being in a decline, with exception of very popular locations like ski towns.

Prices aren’t really dropping nor will they, like above said even in 2008 VT was pretty unaffected, but some homes are sitting on the market a bit longer so it’s not as dire to find a place as it was 2 years ago.

Overall, if you can’t afford to buy now, then that prob won’t change anytime soon unless you increase your income significantly or can get together a solid down payment, or both. Best of luck tho.

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Legitimate_Proof t1_ixm31wz wrote

With that title, I thought you were asking about county differences, like coming from a place where county governments have power. In that case, I'd say it doesn't matter, counties have almost no power here.

But a market prediction? Everyone buying now must think it will at least hold. Many more people want to buy. Supply/demand supports these prices. We're just starting to see some slackening, some price reductions. But after 2008, Vermont's housing prices mostly paused instead of decreased.

I think it needs to come down but won't without significant intervention. The share of single family homes owned by investors has tripled in VT, while rising less in other states. The proliferation of short term rentals takes away from our housing supply. Vermont has one of the highest shares of unoccupied homes. According to the Census, in 2021, there were almost 65,000 of these housing units that are used for profit or vacation instead of housing! People talk about construction, but that takes a long time and even if we were doing it faster it would take decades to build as many units are we already have sitting on the sidelines. We need to stop the conversion of existing housing into investments, and use policy to compel many of those to switch back into owner occupied or long term rental.

We already have one way to do this with the homestead property tax differentiation. Clearly short term rentals make enough money to overcome their higher taxes. We could simply increase the tax differential until we see enough of those short term and unoccupied units being switched to long term occupancy.

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ChefOk8428 OP t1_ixm44vx wrote

Thanks! Looking at those two areas for proximity to potential future employer. I'm currently in an area with low population, limited housing availability, but prices for a 3 bedroom are half or less for comparable condition.

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HappilyhiketheHump t1_ixm4fyk wrote

Why won’t our legislators do this? Becca and Jill have had zero interest in addressing this and incoming senate leader Phil hasn’t been an advocate either.

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cpujockey t1_ixpx3zc wrote

Ding ding ding!

Politicians give zero fucks. As long as there is a bustling tourism industry they will not move a finger to help the common person. Coupled with the fact they are still paying people to move here and remotely work is yet another way the native Vermonter is being pushed out.

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Open_Concentrate962 t1_ixt0hse wrote

I read the same county query. This occurred in another New England thread where another OP was fixated on using counties as a distinguishing mechanism and confused many.

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Meatloaf0220 t1_ixm8l1o wrote

As Chittenden becomes priced out people are moving to southern Chittenden and northern Addison more. Hinesburg had a big boom and recently Monkton and Middlebury have seen population increases. I don’t see this trend or prices going down anytime soon. Maybe a slight decrease in prices due to slightly less demand after the craziness of the pandemic.

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No-Ganache7168 t1_ixo5slx wrote

No. I live in a small town that wasn’t discovered by second homeowner wannabes until Covid-19. 10 years ago one of my mom friends bought a 100-year-old fixer upper here for $200,000. Now, people are snatching up fixer uppers half the size with no charm for over $300,000 and paying with cash.

According to the local paper 1/3 of the Hines sold last year we’re bought with cash as investment properties or second homes. There’s even an LLC from NJ that has bought a few homes recently to tear them down and build townhomes or apartment buildings. I think it would be very hard to move here without a large amount of cash.

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