aquarain t1_j19hqzj wrote on December 22, 2022 at 5:35 PM

Reply to comment by standarduser2 in Leaked internal document shows Amazon expects a soft landing for the US economy and little chance of a recession, a rosier outlook than many other forecasters by Sorin61

On an annualized rate June would have been 10%. You don't go from 7.5 to 9 in 6 months, from 5.3 the year before, from 0.6 the year before that without realizing that this is a trend that leads to 10 and far beyond.

standarduser2 t1_j1af7wj wrote on December 22, 2022 at 9:13 PM

At what point do you believe the US will be far beyond 10% annual inflation?

aquarain t1_j1ahnrq wrote on December 22, 2022 at 9:30 PM

I think I see your objection. It's the grammar time machine.

>With inflation approaching 10% and looking to get sticky the potential for a hard crash was there.

The placement of that "was" makes it difficult to tell that the former tense applies to the clause before it. English is tricky that way. Let's break down the sentence another way for you, and add in the supplemental information from the context since.

In June of this year annual inflation reached 9.06% over the year before, and the month to month increase suggested an annualized rate of inflation of 10%. Having accelerated at an increasing rate for the 26 months prior, from an annual rate below 0.2% to over 9%, it would have been reasonable at that time to expect this trend to continue without an upper bound until some change was undertaken, making a hard crash conclusion increasingly likely at that time. Fortunately, belatedly, the Federal Reserve Board had begun hiking interest rates and announcing an end to unlimited mortgage buying a couple of months earlier and so the inflation began to ease. Now with the pressure of inflation easing, the trend reversed and only limited impacts to the jobs economy a hard crash looks unlikely at this time and trending less likely as time goes on.

Is that better?