>Trying to leapfrog to FSD was too much of a gap and people underestimated the complexity of the problem, the maturity of the technology, and effort required to achieve the goals.

It is a hard problem, one that as you infer, will take time and a lot of effort.

One of the harder problems I see, is driving on the kind of roads and in the kind of conditions that I have to deal with; a gravel road that is muddy or icy or covered in snow, with no easily discernable edges - especially during the night or when covered with snow - especially when covered with snow (often unplowed). Add in ruts in the snow after multiple vehicles have driven any snow covered road, and you have conditions that are hard for humans to drive thru, much less an AI.

I have 50+ years of driving experience and it isn't easy for me to navigate the roads to my house on a remote mountain. In another 10-15 years I will probably want/need a self-driving car, so I hope there is significant progress made, but while there has been significant progress made from 20 years ago, I think the developers are now hitting the hard problems and it will take more time than I have left.