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wubbbalubbadubdub t1_ityuja4 wrote

What's super weird about this article is it repeats the "doomed to fail" comment twice but never attempts to explain why.

It explains some of the politics, and how the US is trying to make itself less dependent on Taiwan's chip production.

It seems like the writer just found the comment and really wanted to write an article about it, but had nothing meaningful to add...

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alienlizardlion t1_ityxevq wrote

It’s obviously Taiwanese propaganda, if they lose the grip on semi conductor fabrication they lose a huge security clearance from the US.

Make no mistake, there are thousands of businesses that need ics and chips and will pay a premium. Someone will capitalize on that.

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borgendurp t1_itz07e5 wrote

>clearance

Is clearance the right word here?

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at_lasto t1_itz0tft wrote

Leverage seems more appropriate.

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Gberg888 t1_itz0zv8 wrote

Protection is the right word. As soon as the us has that factory up and running and the proper people staffing and it's known its making the current gen chips and can make the next gen chips... the us has less of a reason to protect Taiwan...

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Worth-Reputation3450 t1_itz4o1q wrote

I think keeping China from getting the best foundry company in the world is enough reason for the US to protect Taiwan.

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Gberg888 t1_itziz58 wrote

As soon as that plant is up to snuff if China did invade I guarantee you'd see a US strike on the infrastructure of tsmc...

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GetOutOfTheWhey t1_iu2kc4c wrote

I doubt there would be a strike. Bombing your allies even to prevent knowledge getting to the enemy is unpalatable.

So the alternative is probably a few kilos of plastic explosive lined inside the concrete walls.

Then chalk it up to an accident or miscalculation.

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Kaionacho t1_itzl260 wrote

I not quite sure about that tbh. The US doesn't really want to go to war with China for obvious reasons.

I would say the US would more likely bomb all TSMC facilities to the ground, If TSMC is not needed anymore,

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f0me t1_itz7ria wrote

Reducing China’s naval access into the greater Pacific remains a major reason

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Deicide1031 t1_itzetk5 wrote

Not necessarily true. The states has a vested interested in maintaining an order, and if nations can just snap up countries liberally so close to say japan and South Korea it’ll bring up the question of whether or not the states is really still top dog and interested in maintaining order. It’s not just the chips.

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pmmbok t1_itz99mv wrote

It will take decades before the better and always better ethos of tsm is internalized by a new player..

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DjScenester t1_itzg3ko wrote

Source? Because I have a feeling in five years we will be good

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pmmbok t1_iu1t9wf wrote

No source. Just an opinion. From life. It takes a while to build a culture of excellence.

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saberline152 t1_itzg92h wrote

nah, keep in mind that US weapons need chips and if something were to happen during a conflict they now have their own ability to make the chips necessary. Look at how much it is hurting Russia just to not get the chips they need

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CypripediumCalceolus t1_iu0kign wrote

Military chips are very different from competitive commercial tech. Military and aerospace use well-known older tech refined to always work even in the most terrible conditions. Tech from ten years ago is good.

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Gberg888 t1_itzirtu wrote

Why do you think the US just passed the chips act? Why do you think there is a massive push to get chips made domestically in the USA?

It's so the usa doesn't have to rely on others to support the USA everything... economy as a whole, tech and developments of tech, and the military...

If the US doesn't have to ship it in and import it then it saves money and is much better protected from a military conflict as we are seeing now.

The added benefit is that Taiwan, as much as the US loves it, is at odds with a much bigger trading partner and the other global power, atleast in paper. Removing tension by removing the US reliance on chips manufacturered there helps dramatically... to the detriment of Taiwan of course.

It removes a key point of need for the US paving the way to pull back ambiguity. I bet you'll see a true language shift in the rhetoric by politicians about the defense of Taiwan as soon as that plant is up and going.

"Dos equis" I guarantee it!

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eiamhere69 t1_itzigf6 wrote

The waters surrounding Taiwan and other parts of this region are extremely important trade routes.

Not to mention, having a few fabrication plants up and running is not nearly enough to fulfil world wide demand.

The US fans are first and foremost are protection and deterrent, against China taking Taiwan soon. It's well known, this is there long time goal and will inevitably be acted upon at some point.

Taiwan know if they give up all fabrication (not that this can be done quickly), it leaves them wide open, so only a few fabs have been negotiated.

It's still a very long road. All he above is just a very, very rudimentary political assessment and doesn't even touch on the economics.

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OccasinalMovieGuy t1_iu196oa wrote

Considering that the experts in such fields won't cross a few thousands, in case of an war, USA would already have plans to evacuate them. US intelligence can sniff out if Taiwan would be invaded and they can shift the experts to either Japan or Korea within days.

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Smaggies t1_itzi8z9 wrote

Containing China is the US's primary reason for defending Taiwan. Leverage is more appropriate because Taiwan absolutely will not be losing US protection because of this.

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JRizzie86 t1_iu03nqc wrote

Ding ding ding, we have a winner.

For real though...it seems China IS coming for Taiwan, which puts the US at a difficult crossroads. If the US has their own means of manufacturing chips there is no doubt they will avoid direct conflict with China.

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alienlizardlion t1_itz69uj wrote

Reading back I knew it wasn’t the right word but the context conveyed what I wanted so I was too lazy to go back. Security assurance is more like it.

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notrab t1_iu0yqzb wrote

Where do you think the US military gets their chips for advanced missel systems?

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Badtrainwreck t1_itzrpwy wrote

It’s hard to say if it’s just propaganda, The Taiwanese lead the market and they decide who gets the best, and if that knowledge and expertise is exported. They obviously have a a political reason to not give America everything it wants.

However us Americans have no stomachs for short term losses to achieve long term gain. If no one is willing to hold our hands through the billions we’d need to throw away just to play pretend chip maker then we will never get to the finish line of being not only independent but dominate. Participation is easy, but leading has a cost that not everyone is willing to pay

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Specialist_Teacher81 t1_ityvsli wrote

Doomed to fail, because we are off of the standard supply routes, and our costs are prohibitively expensive. We could make it work, but that would require tariffs and other laws to stifle outside competition for computer chips. But that would require biting into corporate profits, which as as much chance of passing in the U.S. government as a snowball in hell.

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G3sch4n t1_itywfce wrote

It is a security issue first. Modern military hardware uses a shit load of chips. So if necessary it would have to be subsidized until is financially viable.

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[deleted] t1_itz50qr wrote

[removed]

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narciblog t1_itz8oaw wrote

Without Wi-Fi, how is my coffee maker going to download firmware updates?

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ThankFSMforYogaPants t1_itzmma0 wrote

Military stuff is crazy low volume. Unit costs would be astronomical.

And security vulnerabilities in IoT devices are a systemic risk. They create vectors for attack.

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vhu9644 t1_itz8s07 wrote

Well you’re half right.

Nothing stops is from making these chips commercially. But right now we just don’t know how to make these chips at a competitive yield. Sure we can make chips that work at the highest level. They just also come with a much larger failure rate than is competitively viable.

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patrickstarpenishead t1_itzbh7n wrote

I work defense. The amount of money we have to spend to get US made chips is absurd. Every part has to be domestic.

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wubbbalubbadubdub t1_itz5a6u wrote

You should have written the article, you seem to know more about the subject than the writer.

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Specialist_Teacher81 t1_itz5qv5 wrote

If opinions upset you, you are in the wrong place buddy.

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wubbbalubbadubdub t1_itzdigs wrote

Your opinions didn't upset me at all, I'm saying the guy who wrote the article is crap because he didn't include any of those reasons to back up the quote he repeated twice.

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kofine05 t1_iu7wddb wrote

The US has several unsavory cards up it's sleeve that would allow it to be competitive with eastern chip making countries if it's people are willing to hold their noses.

  1. We have a constant supply of immagrants from South America looking for work and are willing to work for cheap. Even if chip creation factories don't hire them directly their presence alone will drive wage demands down. This is only possible by expanding green card access. Make it simple to enter the US if you promise to find a job.

  2. The US dollar is the world's reserve currency. This makes it very very easy to loan out cheap money for building.

  3. The US has the wealth to cut taxes on chip production and factory creation to zero if it so chooses.

  4. The US has the number 1 internal market demand for chips. Companies can make class leading profits selling to the North American markets only. Abroad sales are not a requirement for success.

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olearygreen t1_itz4t3s wrote

Protectionism always hurts the protectionist.

It will make everything more expensive, harder to export and require more protectionist measures that require our companies to compete less with the world having eventually a negative effect on National Security due to messer products. Ask Russia how that works out.

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Specialist_Teacher81 t1_itz5vyk wrote

There are no absolutes, unrestricted free trade also has bad outcomes. You need a measured approach, not ideologies.

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ked_man t1_ityx54w wrote

China probably paid for the article to be written.

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vhu9644 t1_ityxkk5 wrote

No, China wants US semiconductors to get parity. It makes protecting Taiwan less important to the US, meaning they have an easier time reclaiming it.

Taiwan has strategic value to China beyond semiconductors

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PHATsakk43 t1_ityydeb wrote

US defense policy towards Taiwan has really not been tied very well to Taiwan's advanced semiconductor technology. I think that kids believe this to be the only thing, but it is a far longer history.

There was absolutely no industry of value when Eisenhower threatened to use nuclear weapons in the mainland to stabilize the control of the KMT led ROC there in the 1950s. In many ways, the US commitment to Taiwanese sovereignty today is less than when it had virtually zero hi tech industries.

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vhu9644 t1_itz1rqc wrote

Oh but the reasoning was different then.

Anti-communism was strong then, and arguably not as strong now. The PRC was much shittier of a power. The American people then were more willing to do what it took to be the hegemon.

Now, China is less communist, more powerful, and the Americans more isolationist. My view is that the US is less interested in Taiwan now because domestically there is less support for maintaining this and destabilizing that region.

I could be wrong. I’m definitely a kid in the sense I wasn’t alive back then. But from my read on history, we’re supportive of Taiwanese sovereignty, but it’s not as strong as it used to be, and Taiwan losing semiconductor priority would also decrease that support.

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ghoonrhed t1_itzk63f wrote

There's also the economic impact. There's no way after seeing covid and Russia the world or the USA would want war with China if it wasn't for something as important as semiconductors.

It'll make the current economic problems seem like child's play.

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reddit-MT t1_iu0006u wrote

As much as China wants to take Taiwan, it's hard to believe that they wouldn't rather have Taiwan with the chip industry intact. I just see the advanced chip industry as being more strategically important than the island. Right now, they can plausibly blockade the island where they can't blockade Texas. If the diminished Taiwanese semiconductor narrative were correct, they would much rather a new chip fab be opened in an adjacent country they have influence over, than in the US. If anything, it's a silver lining. A consolation prize for losing influence of the semiconductor industry versus a goal or a win.

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vhu9644 t1_iu08ox5 wrote

I think the more strategic importance is cementing internal legitimacy (domestic stability) while ensuring open sea access. They don’t care about blockading taiwan. They care about Taiwan blockading they (with our blessing)

SMIC sucks, but they don’t suck that bad. IIRC they’re like 1-3 generations behind, but again, not capitalist so yield matters a bit less. ASML not selling EUV to them is a big setback, but only time will tell if it is an insurmountable one.

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reallyfuckingay t1_ityzhkh wrote

wouldn't it be the other way around? wouldn't Taiwan stand to lose if Americans were confident they didn't have to rely on them for chip production?

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IKENTHINGS t1_itzg96j wrote

China wants a monopoly. No more computer chips for you.

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[deleted] t1_ityxvoo wrote

[removed]

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Ktn44 t1_ityy2a0 wrote

Which companies exactly?

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Gogo6799 t1_ityyvvf wrote

Also which country does that apply to ? Who is "our" referring to ?

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[deleted] t1_ityzlgr wrote

[deleted]

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Ktn44 t1_ityzs9k wrote

So.... US companies own Chinese companies alongside the Chinese government. Which is entirely different from what you said.

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Nazario3 t1_itz0xck wrote

This has absolutely nothing to do with the other comment?!

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ten-million t1_itz185g wrote

Are you sure, according to the facts above, that the US is not controlling Chinese media?

There is interconnectedness. Why does control only go one way?

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Rustbeard t1_iu0th2i wrote

I'm not sure of anything. I googled and copied what I saw. I never made a claim.

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QryptoQid t1_ityyi92 wrote

So, "major business says it's so awesome, you shouldn't even bother trying to compete with it."

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UpvoteIfYouReddit t1_itz3f25 wrote

Tell that too the 5.5 billion dollar intel building I’ve been working at here in Ohio doomed my ass

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