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Financial-Employ5634 t1_j8jzlfq wrote

Think back to the source of what’s required, active and producing mines. There literally aren’t enough mines in the world to handle the output needed to see this kind of growth.

New mines from exploration to resource extraction takes 15 years. This is just delusional and if you think inflation is bad now, boy oh boy just wait until we’re heavily reliant on minerals that will be immensely scarce because of the demand this is going to create. I’m not saying there’s a scarcity of minerals, but a scarcity of actual mines.

Copper is a huge input into EVs, guess what else relies on copper? Almost every other industry in existence related to technology, industrial processes, and construction.

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Wizywig t1_j8j9h44 wrote

This is the last nail in the ICE coffin.

If Europe bans ICE, car xonpa ies not gonna make em. Not really. Why invest in dying tech.

And some of the biggest money states are already on the 2035 timeline. So any state who ignores the issue now is gonna get pulled in defacto. And if they don't keep up they gonna be in a lot of pain as they are dependent on cars which are quickly disappearing.

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mikasjoman t1_j8m7h1g wrote

Yeah my car is older than 12 years. Why would I buy a gasoline car today when it's a dying tech? A Tesla now looks like my next step, but I'll want to weather this economic downturn first.

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Wizywig t1_j8mvfrp wrote

Eh. By the time gas cars stop being sold, A new car will be old again.

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mikasjoman t1_j8n7nqh wrote

I don't know... My car is old but runs very well. My Prius is from 2009, and it's probably gonna run for 5-10 years more at least.

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Wizywig t1_j8nq4xj wrote

No joke. I sold my prius in 2022 (was 10 years old). The problem is that just around the time now is when the battery is due for a failure and that basically totals the car. Though I think the old Nickel batteries are less likely to fail than the lithium ones (though they are heavier).

The thing is... in 12 years new ICE cars won't be sold. Likely still plenty of market for ICE cars used. I think today buying an ICE isn't much of a risk. But the hope is that car companies focus less on ICE investment. Though seeing companies like Mazda really push these engines to the limit in terms of how much energy can be extracted from the gas can be a very useful tech if we can't quite get the infra ready for a fully electric market.

We'll see in 2032 what the practical landscape looks like. but hopefully by then buying an electric will be a no-brainer. But we don't know if Lithium supplies are going to be enough, or if new amazing tech comes out to where battery lifetimes extend by a lot and recycling becomes a solid tech.

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mikasjoman t1_j8nutut wrote

Yeah to be honest we don't even know if they'll be lithium. Lots of companies and researchers exploring new chemistries. I mean look how fast the cheaper and aafer lithium iron phosphate batteries took hold of the EV batteries, feels like yesterday they entered the market.

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Wizywig t1_j8nwtnp wrote

Indeed. Its why I'm not sweating it honestly. I used to sweat it thinking "omg if I buy an ICE what will happen". Cars depreciate in value already. In 10 years when my new car will be 10 years old... It'll still be before the 2035 timeline. I might lose 5k on the total value of the car when selling, maybe, but that's why holding a car for 10 years makes it more or less useful. Who knows, maybe by then Waymo will make me having to have my own car irrelevant.

So who knows. Make purchasing decisions that make sense for the next 5-7 years, as for the way future, who knows.

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ThePompa t1_j8jgsv5 wrote

I'm guessing the plan for 15 minute cities would make us stop using cars unless absolutely necessary and this just reinforces it.

Can't wait to see how my gardening business will run with carrying 15 spare batteries a day

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Badfickle t1_j8llc6s wrote

That will get the last 10% that remain by then.

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[deleted] t1_j8m84s2 wrote

If only I had shit loads of money and a lot of space...

Imagine the profits you would make buying the very last "high end" (think ST/RS/SVT/M/AMG) of every ICE car produced as close to 2035 as possible... They will be completely priceless in the future.

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OzurieXV t1_j8jwwb5 wrote

Feels like another decision to appease voters without any plausible plan to reach the goal. We saw the same with the Paris Agreement and the promise of zero emissions by X year or 'becoming net-zero'. There was and is no plan on how to realistically achieve this.

As somebody else mentioned in here, what's the plan for the surge in demand for batteries? Cobalt was one of the mentioned resources but there are other problematic resources required too such as lithium.

It's entirely plagued with flaws.

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dyyd t1_j8jzx15 wrote

Look at the trends, in EU already ~10% of new cars are electric. Even without the ban over 90% would be EV-s by 2035. This ban only makes things more predictable for larger players, allowing them to have some certainty as to where to direct investments.

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[deleted] t1_j8m8727 wrote

So we will somehow go from 0~10% in ~10 years, to 90~100% in ~10 years?

I can't see that happening.

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dyyd t1_j8nn9xq wrote

Wait about 10 years ;)

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Ancient_Persimmon t1_j8p7egy wrote

The percentage of sales has increased roughly 30-50% every year, depending on if someone has just ramped a factory or released a high volume model.

13% last year, 18 this year, 25 next year, 35% the year after, etc.

It goes quickly.

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ArcadesRed t1_j8jbie6 wrote

So, the EU has about 300 million cars. Rounding up, about 6 million are EV. So about 1 in every 50 cars are EV's. Let's say the average lifespan of a car is 10 years. That's also about how long between battery pack changes on EV's.

So the EU alone, in 10 years is going to need 50 times more batteries per year. You are asking the Democratic republic of the congo to increase it's production of colbalt by 5000% in 10 years just to supply the EU. And that's if no other countries like China or the US decide to use ANY more lithium batteries for ANYTHING then they do right now. If you want a nice depressing subject to learn about, look up child labor in colbalt mines. It accounts for between 15-30% of your clean lithium batteries you love so much.

I'm sorry, no established industry in the history of anything has grown that fast. But Greta has a heck of a bridge to nowhere to sell you. I love green energy, but this stupidity is not helping.

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ZXKeyr324XZ t1_j8jchfj wrote

Sodium-ion batteries are cobalt-free, and they will presumably be a big part of most EVs in the forseable future given the vast abundance of sodium on Earth

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Plzbanmebrony t1_j8jcwuk wrote

Those lithium–sulfur batteries are also coming onto the market. We are in the setting up production phase of development.

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ArcadesRed t1_j8jhgoi wrote

No, they are still firmly in the lab from everything I read. Do you have a source saying otherwise?

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Plzbanmebrony t1_j8jpx5x wrote

So many "epic new super battery" nonsense fills every single search I can't find it again. But I did find the tech they were talking about. They didn't meant in the video that it need to be kept hot to be stable.

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ArcadesRed t1_j8jve07 wrote

Ya, I had the same problem. But I was reading that it did super well in hot environments. So we at least know the battery will work well in industry, not so well in the winter.

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ArcadesRed t1_j8jf5xu wrote

So in the next ten years, the EU is going to revolutionize the sodium battery. Fix it's charging cycle problems, lower it's weight low enough to even fit in EV's. Because so far no car uses it due to it sucking for anything mobile. Set up nigh on hundreds of factories to bring them to market in the millions.

No, in ten years we might start to see them be small enough to put in EV's in a lab maybe. More likely applications like city busses if you're lucky. But in no way will an industry exist even alongside lithium batteries to support this fiction.

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ZXKeyr324XZ t1_j8jfddl wrote

...There are already sodium ion batteries ready for launch this year..?

The BYD Seagull is right around the corner

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ArcadesRed t1_j8jhyje wrote

All I am seeing is hype and guessing. You have any sources confirming it's power source or just guessing from auto magazine's like I read.

Edit. A word

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ZXKeyr324XZ t1_j8jnty1 wrote

All I've read is from several different reports talking about said car, some reports about BYD working on Sodium Ion batteries too.

Beyond that, CATL is also working on them too.

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Ancient_Persimmon t1_j8pahmp wrote

LFP are Cobalt free and are actually in production with at least 25% of EVs being so-equipped.

You don't even have to look at experimental technology for that.

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ZXKeyr324XZ t1_j8pakgx wrote

That is also true, I didnt remember LFPs when I wrote my comment

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dyyd t1_j8jzfdr wrote

>That's also about how long between battery pack changes on EV's.

That is way off. I agree that first gen Leaf and maybe first gen Teslas had batteries that might require replacement after 10 years, more likely a batterypack lasts 20-30 years in an EV.

Also, many EV-s are already migrating away from cobalt based chemistries and some are already looking towards lithium free chemistries. There lies the "solution": there are many options of battery chemistries that are viable for EV-s and there is no requirement to only use one. The ones that have more supply will be used at the time and in the end they will stabilize.

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ArcadesRed t1_j8jzrll wrote

No one is saying 30 years. Most are talking from 8 to 20 at the high end.

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dyyd t1_j8k0hra wrote

Do some maths. 1kWh of battery capacity lasts for about 10k km before falling below the "magical" 70% SOH level. That means that an average EV like the Model 3 which has a 60kWh battery, will last for about 600k km. The average European drives around 15k km a year. It would take 40 years for them to drive the battery to that level. Other chemical degradation issues will probably apply before the 40 year mark which is why I brought out 20-30 years.

Oh, and the 1kWh per 10k km is based on first gen Leaf without battery thermal management. Newer chemistries and better cooling/warming solutions might have already pushed that number up so I would not be too surprised when Model 3-s end up lasting a million kilometers.

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ArcadesRed t1_j8k2zv3 wrote

Ya, that's magical lab only numbers and you know it. Find me a single company boasting those numbers right now, not in the future and I'll ceed the point.

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dyyd t1_j8k4689 wrote

No, I have seen and driven the first gen Leaf-s with 300k+ on the odometer and 70% SOH, this is real life. With the original battery.

For clarification, there is a taxi company here that exclusively uses electric cars. They managed to rack up those 300k km quite quickly, using rapid charging as well. Really brutal usage pattern. And still the batteries had ~70% SOH at 250k - 350k km, there was quite a bit of variance which may be due to driver usage patterns or the chemistry change in 2013/2014.

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ben7337 t1_j8kyqib wrote

I can't speak from experience here, but pretty sure quickly wearing the battery down is only half the puzzle. 5-10 years of exposure to summer heat and moreso freezing cold in winters will do a lot more damage to the battery. Granted if you live somewhere where it never gets below 5C or above 30C maybe the wear from exposure to elements would be much more controlled. Similarly if you always parked the car in a warm climate controlled area it would likely be fine, but that's not realistic

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dyyd t1_j8nlsov wrote

Thats why newer EV-s have liquid cooled/heated battery packs which maintain a safe temperature for the pack even when not driving.

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ben7337 t1_j8nnwqz wrote

Wait you're telling me there's ev batteries that you can leave out for 24 hours or more at below freezing temps and it keeps the battery above freezing so it's not degraded? Any source on that because I've never heard of such a thing and I'd have to ask where the energy to heat the battery comes from, is it just actively discharging to maintain a set temp, and it'd be dead if you left it out in the cold for a week or something?

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dyyd t1_j8nokv6 wrote

Personal experience from a Leaf at -30C the winter before last :D That had accumulated enough heat in it from the previous days ride that it never got to 0C.

That specific car did not have liquid cooling but it did have electric heating yeah.

Sources are many, google it.

​

But yeah, if you leave the car unplugged for an extended period in winter (like weeks) then it will drain from maintaining the safe temperature and then there might be damage. Which is why for taking care of your car you leave it plugged in for such situations.

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nerfyies t1_j8jr6o2 wrote

Your math is way off, first of all the supply side for materials only needs to match the number of new cars added every year which is 12-15M cars every year. Last year a bit more than 2M electric cars where registered in Europe so a rough estimate is that supply for batteries needs to increase by 700% by 2035, around 20% per year increase for 12 years which is achievable if mining is industrialised further.

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ArcadesRed t1_j8k2kte wrote

I wrote a long response but reddit made it disappear. Things of note were only 1.3 mil were EV, the rest were hybrid. The last three ish years are the results of a long leadup in production capacity with insane production numbers 50%+ higher every year. And a few other things. It was mostly saying that I went too high but your is too low. I did screw up using total EV's and not looking at the last few years production.

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Financial-Employ5634 t1_j8jzwpy wrote

Your missing a key point here, when you say mining your talking about active mines. There aren’t enough active mines to begin with. Do you know how long it takes to get a new mine approved, get the exploration done to see if it’s even a feasible site, and then begin the actual mining? 15 years.

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ben7337 t1_j8ky4gp wrote

So the current mines are at 100% theoretical capacity and there's no more places in the globe that could be used to open new mines, and you're saying in spite of the constantly growing demand over the last couple decades, nations across the globe haven't been looking for economical sources to open new mines? I don't know much about the industry, but that sounds pretty unlikely to me, though besides child labor horrors, the only info I can find on new mines is that the US just opened it's first one in 2022

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Ancient_Persimmon t1_j8p9t5q wrote

Your math for annual consumption is wrong, since about 12% of cars sold were EVs in the EU last year, not 2%. If things stayed as is, which they won't, Co production would have to rise by about 5x, not 50.

Less than 10% of Co being mined is via artisanal mining and that number is dropping as demand rises and it becomes worthwhile for professional mining.

At the same time, Co is being eliminated from Nickel based battery chemistries and already a substantial proportion of lithium packs are LFP, which don't use Cobalt.

Recycling pack materials is a nascent industry for Li-ion batteries and is also accelerating quickly with considerable funding behind it.

>I'm sorry, no established industry in the history of anything has grown that fast.

Pretty much every established industry grows at this rate, this is how people have rather accurately predicted the sales numbers of EVs.

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[deleted] t1_j8jrzka wrote

[deleted]

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Denastus t1_j8m35eg wrote

I see you're a part of the r/fuckcars team.

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ArcadesRed t1_j8jvw9g wrote

Ahh I see, you're a let the world starve to death type. Just remember, you aren't rich, you would feel the pinch also. Starving causes people to reevaluate everything. And start wars.

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[deleted] t1_j8jwjt0 wrote

[deleted]

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ArcadesRed t1_j8jzfbt wrote

Ok. And the people who live in the country, you know those rural areas where we grow the food. How do they travel and bring the food to market? How do they plant and harvest? The ships that transport the food to places that can't grow it. The fishing boats that provide fish. The trucks that move the food from the port to the train or market. The mining equipment used to mine resources that we use to make things.

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NoPoliticsAllisGood t1_j8inxy8 wrote

Spoiler alert: ain’t going to happen

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Plzbanmebrony t1_j8iutyj wrote

Toughen up buttercup. You are going to have to adapt.

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