Submitted by altmorty t3_11ay25h in technology
sooprvylyn t1_j9uwmpf wrote
No they wont....robots are expensive because they are made of costly conponents. They arent like ai software that can just be duplicated repeatedly for free.
fitzroy95 t1_j9uxeiy wrote
except that as volume starts to increase, and technology improves, those components start to get mass-produced and cheaper and the robots built from them will get both better and cheaper. Which is pretty much the path of any new technologies e.g. phones, computers etc.
You may not be able to afford generation 1, but 20 years later they will be commonplace and appearring everywhere
sooprvylyn t1_j9v8zi1 wrote
These arent just circuit boards and screens in plastic cases. You got servos, motors, pistons, hydraulics, gearing, bearings, seals, etc.....and all those things also wear and tear compounding the issues. Shit like that costs a lot of money to build and maintain.
Im not convinced these robots will be affordable for the average person within 30 years. It will take a loooong time for the mass production of something almost as complex as a car to bring costs down to something resembling affordable for an average family.
Commercial robots otoh are a bit more likely. They are cheaper than hiring a human, they dont get tired, and they can work faster. Its cost effective on a commercial scale. Households dont have enough domestic work to warrant an $$$ robot to do a few tasks around the house.
fitzroy95 t1_j9vvf01 wrote
maybe, or not. However, places like Japan are investing heavily in humanoid robots to provide a nursing and companion service for their aging population and shrinking young population. I see those as being an avenue for adoption.
Some light housework, some nursing, some sitting and chatting.
either buy or rent...
sooprvylyn t1_j9w55tt wrote
Pipe dreams....maybe in 50-100 years
fitzroy95 t1_j9wi2ve wrote
some of the early companion and nursing robots are already available. They've got a long way to go, but Keep improving significantly every year
sooprvylyn t1_j9x5o2w wrote
Most of those are basically expensive toys($5000 for a seal robot that tracks eyes and flips its tail), and the ones that arent mostly fancy toys, are $$$$ prototypes. Not saying they are useless, or wont end up being badass and common some day. Saying it will be a LOOOONG time before there is a robot maid in every home.
tiboodchat t1_j9xd469 wrote
They’ll never sell you one outright anyway. If not the hardware, the software will totally be licensed. You’ll likely have to pay a subscription model. They’ll pocket a % of the perceived value of that 40% time you saved.
CandyCoatedHrtShapes t1_j9vgfwk wrote
Economies of scale. Once they become mass produced it’ll become much cheaper.
sooprvylyn t1_j9vlme4 wrote
Sure, but still not something the average family will be able to afford anytime soon(probably not in your lifetime), especially as most families dont have human labor costs, like maids, to offset the cost of a complex robot(or multiple single purpose robots).
The complexity of these things will be almost like a car, and the components will not be cheap printed circuitboards and screens in a plastic housing like cell phones or computers. They will have a LOT of precision moving parts requiring regular maintenance and repair. Dont plan on having Rosie from the Jetsons unless you are pretty rich.
CandyCoatedHrtShapes t1_j9vly0b wrote
We’re probably 10 years or less away from a singularity.
sooprvylyn t1_j9vmcot wrote
A digital singularity wont eliminate the cost of manufacturing physical compenents out of raw materials, transporting those raw marerials, and finished products, or other costs associated with actual robots.
CandyCoatedHrtShapes t1_j9vmg9i wrote
It absolutely will.
sooprvylyn t1_j9vmk6g wrote
I work in manufacturing and have for iver 20 years.....you have no idea what you are talking about.
CandyCoatedHrtShapes t1_j9vmmu1 wrote
Either do you bro.
sooprvylyn t1_j9vre5x wrote
Except that i have actual experience with producing a product, which a robot would be. I am intimately familliar with manufacturing and materials costs, transportation, qc and compliance testing, safety testing and all the other fun shit that goes into making consumer goods.
I probably have a slightly better bead on the situation than you do, bro
You think you got it figured cuz you got a C in Econ 101?
Shot-Spray5935 t1_j9vycgn wrote
First they'll do the chores for the rich. We'll wait 10 years before we can get a lousy robot to do the dishes.
Personally I will wait for a robot that looks like Scarlett Johansson.
sooprvylyn t1_j9w3lef wrote
We already have lousy robots to do the dishes..they run about $500.
It was actually invented in 1850, but didnt become commonly used until the 1950s, yet still a luxury item until the 1970s.
Robo-scarlet otoh, that would probably not have nearly as long an adoption timeframe.
SwallowYourDreams t1_j9vgeto wrote
Running (for instance) ChatGPT costs an estimated 10k USD / day. So... there goes your "for free".
PaulTheMerc t1_ja6ny8q wrote
With the user base it has, that's...like 1c/day per user?
SwallowYourDreams t1_ja6sw94 wrote
Firstly, it remains to be seen if said users also generate sufficient revenue and not just cost (although it's likely this will happen). Secondly, even if the technology does scale after a while, there's a barrier of entry (computing power of even a starting size does not pay for itself), so it's not just a matter of "copying a few Terabytes of code" like the initial comment suggested.
sooprvylyn t1_j9vlyh5 wrote
Fine...next to free, captain semantics. There are 25 million users a day...costing $0.0004/user......so basically free.
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