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Raken_dep t1_ixr8k7n wrote

Reply to comment by IIIllllIIlllIIlllIIl in Wales lose to Iran after suffering two late goals in World Cup group game by cryptocandyclub

>“let’s pretend we can pass around like a European team but for gods sake don’t ever shoot the ball”

I was just talking to a friend of mine about how much of overkill the passing in the attacking third or in the dying minutes of the game has been by literally every other team in today's football. You're not fucking Man City or the Tiki Taka Barca or the 2010 Bosque coached Spain side. And the worst part that absolutely tilts me to no end is the dying minutes of a game where a match is still drawn (especially between sides who've been equally good in the game) and either side has the ball, or, a losing team has the ball, and there's literally no direct ball being played and there's still 5 players by the fucking half line and they're not even attempting to crowd close to the box and try to create a chance, and then the final straw is when the team in possesion here does a sideways or a backward pass and the ref blows the whistle to end the game. Now I've been watching football for 20 something years and I swear I can't recall too many games 10-15 years back where a team in the situations mentioned above would do that. I remember all teams in situations like that would show the desperation to get a goal and that would be exciting to watch. Today it's just fucking boring as a spectator to witness this crap that is being pulled so often.

And if you think I'm making this shit up, just check the last minute of the recently concluded Ecuador vs Netherlands match. The Dutch got possession with some 20 seconds remaining in added time, and they played 3 fucking passes in Ecuador's half close to the half line. And then Blind has the final touch where he could've literally punt the ball towards the box even if it would be a bit wayward but there'd be a chance it could land in the box and the ref would let the play be completed if the ball was played ahead. But no, the man plays a totally backward pass to Van Dijk or someone in the centre and the ref blows the whistle to end the game.

Whaat??

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IIIllllIIlllIIlllIIl t1_ixs0l4a wrote

Preach it brother. This exact thing just happened in the USA England game. They wasted their last opportunity by instead of putting a free kick in the box they… you guessed it… passed to the outside and tried to cross it in. It drives me absolutely fucking insane. Clearly the boys have been told to score a “certain way”. It’s all based on some percentages they came up with via statistics. But the problem with statistic is that it completely ignores tactics and what happens when you actually shoot the stupid ball. It forces defenders to leave the box which opens up the back line. We are ignoring an entire facet of the attack because Berhalter thinks he’s being clever by copying European style. It ignores how goals are created.

Can’t stand the style.

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phl_fc t1_ixwim2g wrote

538 kind of had a point about this a while back on an analytics article about the value of speculative shooting. What they found is that long range shots are usually worth taking because it at least gives you a chance for something good to happen, and that passing the ball around probably isn’t going to improve your chances enough to make up for not taking your shot. They argue that a high volume of low quality shots is a better strategy than trying to pass the ball into the net.

They were looking at the xGA stats for the percentage chance of scoring from every area of the field and saw that passing the ball around to try to get a higher xGA didn’t make up for the volume you could get from lots of lower percentage shots.

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IIIllllIIlllIIlllIIl t1_ixyp5ef wrote

That’s interesting. I had always only looked at it from a tactical perspective. Taking chances forces the opponent to understand that they can’t just sit back in the box. So it opens them up vertically, which opens up the chances inside the box too. When I was a youth coming up through local clubs I had a coach from Nigeria at a training camp teach me to peek up and if I see two posts then take a shot for one of them. He explained that a striker mindset needs to always default to “shoot”. You don’t have time to think about anything else.

I highly suspect all the managers are just copying what they think the correct way is and favoring possession over all else.

In a way you’re absolutely right. You miss 100% of the shots you don’t take. A higher volume of shots will result in a higher volume of goals. And not just any shots. Real attempts. None of this shooting it 20 yards up in the air over the post stuff. Actual shots on goal.

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