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SonicHedgePig t1_j5ohyyr wrote

12 years. We will have something resembling sci fi space travel by 2035 I think. Some scientists have built and are working on ion engines already. That's a huge step in the right direction. Once we have the science of time in space figured out the galaxy will be our oyster.

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ferrel_hadley t1_j5ojihs wrote

The best depiction of futuristic space travel would be something like The Expanse that shows a drive that allows huge acceleration for long periods. The problem is there is no real mechanism for it in theory yet. The best theoretical drives we can envisage is something like Project Daedalus that used a steady pulse of small nuclear explosions. The most realistic non rocket system would be nuclear.

So we do not have a physical theory as to how to travel like light Sci fi shows.

But its like asking people who travelled in carriages about what flying would be like. They might come up with winged horses rather than the simple idea like a turbine jet engine.

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gwizone t1_j5ojyn7 wrote

Travel between planetary bodies is painfully slow. Maybe 20-30 years we will have tourism between low earth orbit and the moon. I mean, like airplane fare level not “I’m richer than you” travel. Between mars and the gas giants will probably be another 50-60 years when we start mining asteroids and gasses like helium and such. We will still be using fuels like now, only we will be making fuel in space and working in orbit, but this most likely be automated and controlled by humans on earth/moon/mars.

Cowboy Bebop, things like terraforming and artificial gravity, etc. who knows. Science Fiction has surprisingly caught up with science in many elements of the genre. But man, I’d say maybe 400 years is a little optimistic but also possible with the way tech is moving.

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PintLasher t1_j5ojzlu wrote

Depends on how many of us survive the great dying and whether or not we will have a replacement for oil... i don't have high hopes for a sci-fi future. Banging rocks together and seasonally migrating out of the killing heat zones is a more realistic depiction of what is in store for us as a species.

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SirBolaxa t1_j5ojznv wrote

In order to fly around the universe you either need a self sustain vehicle that somehow allows you to produce or grow food indefinitely or you need to get to places that could allow you that or you had to always return earth and to me any of this possibilities are way way way too far in the future, well further than 400 years.

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Enorats t1_j5okqh9 wrote

20 years. That's the standard answer for any question to which the actual answer is.. there is no way of knowing because the technologies involved aren't even visible on our tech tree yet, and we don't even know if they're even there at all.

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SonicHedgePig t1_j5olq9l wrote

Replying to Pimp_Daddy_Patty (#1,466,854)

Maybe, I don't know. I just have an exciting feeling that over the next couple of years things are going to move a bit more quickly in terms of space exploration. Can't explain it it's just a feeling I have.

Wishful thinking more than likely but a guy can dream.

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tommy4991 t1_j5olv1e wrote

If technology keeps advancing rapidly like it’s been and we manage not to blow ourselves up, I’d say maybe even less then 400 years maybe in 200 years ww1 happened a little over 100 years ago, and the civil war is coming up on 200 years ago. Look at the state of the world between those times and now, so much has changed that I wouldn’t doubt to see space travel happen on the regular with in 200 years with even colonization in space stations above planets

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Pimp_Daddy_Patty t1_j5omgux wrote

Replying to SonicHedgePig (#1,466,920)

That's fair.

My thinking is along the lines of funding for such projects, past promises by governments as well as private sector (looking at you Elon), and any upcoming recessions that would also affect any progress.

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zach_dominguez t1_j5onbz9 wrote

I say less than that, it's only been 120 since the Wright Brothers took their first flight and we've advanced so much since then.

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Data-Hungry t1_j5onlng wrote

200-400.. depends on what if any set backs in civilization

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MaximusZacharias t1_j5ooklb wrote

Replying to tommy4991 (#1,466,931)

Ok but that’s starting in 1861. You can’t ignore literally every other year before the civil war began in regard to technology boom. Ever since Charles H Duell, commissioner of US patent office in 1889 indicating that the patent office would soon be Shrinking in size saying that “everything that can be invented has been invented.” There’s been more advancement in technology from that point until today than in all of time before 1889. Unless technology logarithmically continues to advance for a straight 200 years we’d still be far from it. Hope I’m wrong.

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terminalmemelocity t1_j5op97q wrote

We don't have enough resources to make it there. We have a bunch of space shops buried in the ground in the form of tickle me elmos

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Glacecakes t1_j5opd8q wrote

Never. Ecological collapse will destroy industrial civilization long before we get close.

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leapingtullyfish t1_j5oppor wrote

A lot of folks mentioning technological advances over the years but we have to remember that they all are “grounded” in some way that makes sense on Earth.

We still have no energy source that makes space travel feasible at the speeds needed. We still have not conquered how gravity needs to work on spaceships (gravity is so important to human health and development). We still don’t have an answer to combating radiation other than burdensome suits that make it hard to move freely.

Our solar system really contains no planet worth settling on other than Mars and we have no answer for how to deal with the cold temp, lack of magnetic field, lack of breathable atmosphere, lack of water, etc. etc.

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echochamber4liberals t1_j5oqyth wrote

I believe some humans on earth currently possess "UFO" type ships with antigravity. I don't think they will voluntarily share this tech... I think it will be after the real world war 3, after the human population is brought down significantly before that tech is shared with ALL of humanity, albeit a much smaller humanity. If you really think about it, humanity as it is, is too irresponsible for that tech.

All that said, I give it 200-400 years before bebop

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mrxexon t1_j5orwvg wrote

By the end of this century, much of the solar system will have been explored and have several colonies and outposts established.

Space travel gets much more difficult after you leave solar system. It's anybody's guess how long it will take to reach the nearest star.

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MarkGibb67 t1_j5osspl wrote

I don't fully understand your example. If you're just talking about small vehicles taking years to reach another solar system, then I think a launch like that could happen soon, like in the next century or two. There would have to be breakthroughs in propulsion. I'm talking about a vehicle with actual functionality, with GNC and comms to earth.

I think we will never be able to exceed the speed of light. It's just a fundamental hard reality of spacetime. So, for practical purposes, humans will never reach other star systems like in science fiction. Of course, there are ideas for generation ships that take decades or hundreds of years to reach other stars. I think something like that is far off, maybe never.

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CloverArms t1_j5osy2g wrote

It's nice to imagine it, however if there's no real functioning prototypes, speculating how long it'll take is moot. The space shuttle first launched 42 years ago. One would think that we've be closer to manned earthly space travel by now. Any advancements over 4 decades I would consider it to be fairly small. The cost gap is astronomical and a diminishing return for almost any company seeking immediate profit.

The sad truth is with the way we're going on this planet, we might never get there before the next mass extinction - except this one will be artificially created.

I'm not a pessimist, just trying to be real. Peace!

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The-Juggernaut_ t1_j5our0m wrote

Never. Solar Systems will be established, there will be travel, communication, and trade within those systems, but space is too big for a civilization like we have on earth. Travel between systems will take thousands of years, so there will be local systems, but flying around the galaxy all Willy Nilly will probably never happen. This is all if we don’t destroy ourselves. But hopefully I’m wrong and some wicked technology comes around that is economically efficient enough to allow the traversal of long distances similar to what airplanes do, but idk seems far fetched.

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aspheric_cow t1_j5ov31a wrote

Cowboy Bebop has hyperspace travel ("astral gate"). It's not clear if it's FTL, but if it is, I'm pretty confident it would never happen.

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InverstNoob t1_j5ovlbp wrote

The climate catastrophe we are building up will destroy us and hinder any progress towards space exploration. We should focus on that first.

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spacex_fanny t1_j5ovv0g wrote

Replying to Bubbagumpredditor (#1,467,276)

Pretty much. The Earth-Mars transit would be 2-5 days, depends on planetary alignment, and also how close your ship can get to the Sun without overheating.

For Pluto it's about 18 days.

The simplified equation to calculate travel time is 2 × sqrt(distance / acceleration)

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graveybrains t1_j5ow1wo wrote

Well, I’m glad you didn’t mean the weird gate thing they blew up the moon and half the planet with 😂

I haven’t been following the news on NASA’s nuclear rocket thing, but it sounds promising… either way it’s going to be waaaay less than 400 years

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Steven-Maturin t1_j5ow3cy wrote

We could have had the ability to fly around the solar system in days or weeks by the 70's if we had embraced nuclear pulsed propulsion ala Project Orion. But the big babies who worried about setting off thousands of nuclear explosions in the Earth's atmosphere nixed it.

We could still build an Orion spacecraft today. Those things would be the size and weight of battleships.

"A nuclear pulse drive starship powered by fusion-antimatter catalyzed nuclear pulse propulsion units would be similarly in the 10% range and pure Matter-antimatter annihilation rockets would be theoretically capable of obtaining a velocity between 50% to 80% of the speed of light. In each case saving fuel for slowing down halves the maximum speed.At 0.1c, Orion thermonuclear starships would require a flight time of at least 44 years to reach Alpha Centauri, not counting time needed to reach that speed (about 36 days at constant acceleration of 1g or 9.8 m/s2). At 0.1c, an Orion starship would require 100 years to travel 10 light years. The astronomer Carl Sagan suggested that this would be an excellent use for current stockpiles of nuclear weapons."

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CloSav t1_j5owcjl wrote

Society as we know it will end before this round of human existence will get there unfortunately. Most likely causes of “the end” are a galactic event of some sort (ex asteroid) or a major change in the earths climate and surface composition. Thats if we dont all kill ourselves first.

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youngtraplordxx t1_j5owto4 wrote

Just need a small multi chamber dark matter reactor for a power plant. Four chambers. Each one control's and powers different major functions of the ship. Why dark matter you ask? The light always chases the dark.

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Aggravating_Teach_27 t1_j5oxx6b wrote

Replying to Enorats (#1,466,810)

Thit.

Between 20 years and never ever, depending on whether it's possible at all, and then, even if possible, on wether it's actually feasible for tiny, delicate, short lived and insignificant human beings.

Any challenge in transportation we've mastered till now is nothing in comparison with the challenge posed by interstellar travel. And that was knowing physics allowed it.

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xadirius t1_j5oy19t wrote

Unfortunately I don't see human reaching any such space travel anytime soon. We're still too heavily in competition with ourselves to make the truly monumental leap in such technology. Hell even the aerospace scientists in the US are competing for funding rather than collaborating for success/advancement.

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Aggravating_Teach_27 t1_j5oyj3f wrote

Replying to gwizone (#1,466,729)

Science fiction has caught up and surpassed reality where physics allow.

Our mobile phones are way more advanced than any intercom system in old sci Fi shows. While at the same time our spaceships work pretty much in the same way than in the 60s

Physics allowed for one thing and made the other extremely challenging. The solar system is the ceiling with the physics we know, and barring new physics, it'll remain that way forever.

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CptKeyes123 t1_j5oyubt wrote

400 years is a bit pessimistic. Konstantin Tsiolkovsky, one of the key minds in rocketry, assumed that we wouldn't achieve orbit until the 21st century, let alone sending ships to the moon, or sending Voyager into interstellar space. I'd say we don't know, and to keep in mind that the future is always closer than we think.

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asupposeawould t1_j5oyw4h wrote

Replying to ferrel_hadley (#1,466,679)

I read somewhere that even if we did have the potential to go really really fast like warp drive speed stopping would take years or if we were able to stop somewhat instantly the amount of force would destroy anything in front of us so if we just happened to stop Infront of earth it would be destroyed lol

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Limos42 t1_j5ozb35 wrote

Replying to CloverArms (#1,467,737)

SpaceX's Starship is about to change all that. The shuttle cost billions per launch, and current (manned) rockets cost hundreds of millions.

Starship will cost an order of magnitude less per launch, and with it's 10x capacity of existing launch vehicles, the cost per kg is another order of magnitude cheaper.

This "cheap" access to space will result in the next leap in human advancement. So much new/renewed focus on new problems to solve, which'll result in new technologies, new inventions, new advancements.

The next 5 years are needed for this new paradigm to mature and become a "commodity" (just like the passenger jet era of aviation) but, from there, the "explosion" will begin.

The 2030's will be an amazing and exciting time to be alive. And, on a slightly different tangent, I can't wait to see what the Clipper and Juice missions learn about Europa, Cassini, and Ganymede (Jupiter), and what Dragonfly learns about Titan (Saturn). Hopefully we'll have something in the works for Enceladus (Saturn) soon, too!

Exciting times ahead!

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Aggravating_Teach_27 t1_j5ozfzs wrote

Replying to tommy4991 (#1,466,931)

If you mean traveling inside the solar system, yes, that seems a likely estimate.

If you mean interstellar travel, either we find a loophole in physics that allows for traveling at a significant portion of C with our current energy sources, it we find a new energy source,, or the answer is never.

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Paradox68 t1_j5ozyu1 wrote

It’s after any of our lifetimes, sadly.

Born too late to be a real pirate, born too soon to be a space pirate.

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Aggravating_Teach_27 t1_j5p0l9h wrote

Replying to SonicHedgePig (#1,466,509)

Ion engines don't help you at all in interstellar distances. Not even for moving people around the solar system as they take forever to gain speed. They are nice to send unmanned probes to far away places in the solar system in multi-year missions and that's about it.

I'm not disparaging ion engines tech, it's wonderful. But falls terribly short of the sci Fi stuff the OP mentioned.

The sad reality is the only likely development left with the physics we know is nuclear engines, and those would still allow for slow but bearable transportation inside the solar system.

Nothing we have or can build with our current tech and understanding of physics allows interstellar travel, at all. Never mind quick and easy interstellar travel like in sci Fi.

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spacex_fanny t1_j5p0xx5 wrote

Replying to Redditdrifter0 (#1,468,385)

"You are technically correct, the best kind of correct."

Some may call it 'decelerating' for the second half, but in physics this also counts as accelerating (just in the opposite direction).

22 mph = 35 kph = 9.8 m/s = 33 ft/s

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SonicHedgePig t1_j5p0yrm wrote

Replying to Aggravating_Teach_27 (#1,468,502)

I was thinking more along the lines of local travel or even a generational colony ship in that time frame. I think we are very long way from interstellar travel.

Like I've said earlier in another comment I'm just a dreamer who wants to see the start of it before I die.

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