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glibgloby t1_j6ljg7g wrote

Reply to comment by FanOfPeace in 2 big pieces of space junk nearly collide in orbital 'bad neighborhood' by jeffsmith202

Kessler syndrome is wildly misinderstood. Probably thanks to the movie gravity. I suggest people read the actual wiki on the topic.

Yes, low to mid orbits could become difficult to hold. This would present itself as a small statistical likelihood per year for a satellite in these orbits to be struck.

Higher orbits would not be affected, nor would our ability to travel through these regions whatsoever. We would definitely still be able to travel into space just fine. But hanging out in lower orbits for long periods of time would be somewhat dangerous.

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Gawkhimm t1_j6lzw5b wrote

thats only if anti-satellite missiles arnt used, thats my biggest worry, not an accidental collision, but a series deliberate shoot downs of satellites from one side or another...

Say Some nation was badly loosing a war and wanted to threaten the west....

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SlightComplaint t1_j6mfxpb wrote

So an eastern nation?

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Gawkhimm t1_j6mg0sw wrote

who knows, but the specific nations isn't as important as the risk of it happening at all, on a large scale...

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SlightComplaint t1_j6mgq62 wrote

Question: If all the current satellites were destroyed at once. What would that change tomorrow? Some things I can think of: -GPS/GNSS. -Weather measurements. -Sat TV / news. -Some comms.

I am just thinking that it wasn't that long ago that we didn't have any of that, and we still managed two world wars just fine.

Alternatives to these are: -Knowing where you are/someone else is. -terrestrial weather measurement. -Short wave radio.

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RhesusFactor t1_j6mqtou wrote

  • Banking would stop due to loss of timing from GNSS. This has immediate and global ramifications.
  • Some disruption to air traffic control as space based ADSB is lost and only available near airports.
  • Global sea shipping loses tracking. Most navigation. Global disruption to bulk international supply chains until inertial nav and alternates are reinstalled.
  • Military communication and some crypto is lost. Many many intel sources are lost. Most guided munitions are hampered, deterrence is lost in some cases, likely leading to conflict sparking as adversaries try to make use of the more even power equations. SBRS no longer provides nuclear deterrence.
  • Weather prediction is significantly impacted. This has flow on effects to logistics, insurance and risk management. Military operations and rescue services are significantly impacted.
  • Hubble is lost.
  • TESS, Kepler, Chandra etc are gone, setting back some fields of astronomy.
  • Astronauts, cosmonauts and taikonauts die as the ISS and Tiangong are inhabited satellites. All research aboard is lost.
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SlightComplaint t1_j6pbnjc wrote

Surely many of these systems have a terrestrial backup.

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RhesusFactor t1_j6pfuzu wrote

You'd hope they do but many are not implementable in a quick manner or to the scale we have achieved with space based services. The question was about if they all failed at once, which is why we are quite concerned about coronal mass ejection and other space weather that could knock out our space systems all at once.

There are ground based PNT/augmentation seeking to lessen reliance on GNSS/space based PNT.

The US considers some of these capabilities as critical infrastructure with limited alternatives. Some are unique like the ISS and Hubble.

Remarkably GNSS is one of the largest components of the space industry. Near everything has gps or timing requirements now. https://brycetech.com/reports/report-documents/Bryce_2019_Global_Space_Economy.png

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Gawkhimm t1_j6mgudo wrote

I would guess a lot more.. But I dont know the specifics. But the debris would keep all other orbital launches grounded

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fakewokesnowflake t1_j6lxj3n wrote

I was at the Space Resiliency Forum in December, and the DoD is certainly taking it seriously…

Also some pretty brilliant folks around space seem to be taking it seriously: McKnight et al.

ESA

Even NASA is working on active debris remediation due to the issues caused by orbital debris

NASA

NASA ADRV

Sure, we could likely still launch to MEO and beyond just fine, but the ISS orbits at 400km. Orbital reef is set to orbit at 500km. We would completely lose sustained human presence in LEO for up to hundreds of years.

Decay by altitude

But I am sure the wiki explained all that to you.

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glibgloby t1_j6msjxv wrote

The wiki does explain all of that. Even I explained most of that in my actual post.

That’s cool you went to a forum though I guess.

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klokkert1 t1_j6nmmz7 wrote

Thank you! I was thinking about this earlier today, how long does it stay in orbit. A lot longer than I thought it would be.

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