You are correct that SOMEONE has to be early. The problem is that there is no logical reason why the first intelligent life should just be arising now. Everything we know about the uni verse suggests that earthlike conditions should have been possible since the rise of the Population I stars (modern stars which seeded the galaxy with most of the elements heavier than helium). That was many billions of years ago. It only took humans a couple million years to go from upright apes to escaping our planter's gravity well. There is no known physical barrier to us colonizing the solar system and then the galaxy within a couple million years at most (assuming the light barrier can never be crossed). So, if intelligent life has been possible for billions of years and it should only take millions to fill up the galaxy, then where is everybody? That is the problem with saying we are at the beginning of the distribution. Everything we know says the distribution should have started long ago.