simcoder t1_iyzi8q2 wrote
Reply to comment by Doggydog123579 in U.S. Space Force chief: The use of space technology in Ukraine ‘is what we can expect in the future’ by Corbulo2526
By your theory though, everything is Kessler including the wrench that they dropped off the Space Shuttle 30 years ago. It's kind of a ridiculously broad take.
And I didn't ignore anything. You just tried to dodge the issue that we don't know the altitude of every military satellite.
The reality is that a space war could very well lead to long duration debris fields that will impact space operations for the duration. And, as I mentioned earlier, the first space war could change the way everyone operates in space for the foreseeable future. Particularly given how much cheaper it is to deny space than it is to "defend" it.
Right now it's an "everyone's-land". After the first space war, it could turn into a no-mans-land. And to the extent the US escalation in space plays a part in that potential future, that makes the US the baddie in space right now.
Doggydog123579 t1_iyzijh5 wrote
>As the number of artifical satellites in earth orbit increases, the probability of collisions between satellites increases. Satellite collisions would produce orbiting fragments, each of which would increase the probability of future collisions, leading to the growth of a belt of debris around the earth. This debris flux in such an earth orbiting belt could exceed the natural meteorite flux, affecting future spacecraft design.
A wrench dropped by the shuttle does add to Kessler.
>And I didn't ignore anything. You just tried to dodge the issue that we don't know the altitude of every military satellite.
We actually do know the orbit of every military satellite, because you can't hide that from a telescope. Pick any satellite and I will tell you its exact orbit. The vast majority are under 600km because of their missions. Which puts them in range of ASAT.
simcoder t1_iyzj1l5 wrote
I notice you said the vast majority but you didn't say all.
Do you know the altitude of every single military asset in space? Is that listed somewhere that we could both look?
And the wrench is debris. You're right about that but still wrong about Kessler.
Doggydog123579 t1_iyzjev4 wrote
Yes vast majority. Which means hitting them degrades capabilites the most.
I just told you we know all the altitudes and eccentricities of every assest in space. You can't hide things in space.
https://in-the-sky.org/satmap_worldmap.php
Cosidering I'm using the original paper as a source, no, I'm not wrong about Kessler. Lets see your source for how Kessler works.
simcoder t1_iyzk087 wrote
How about GPS? Those can be pretty high. Seems like that might be something that the bad guys might have in their targets.
Speaking of bad guys, what if the bad guys have military stuff that's in orbits that don't decay for decades or centuries?
You're right that debris is debris. But the wrench they dropped off the Shuttle and has subsequently decayed is not Kessler Syndrome. I know you really want it to be but it's not. It's just debris.
Doggydog123579 t1_iyzx5c9 wrote
GPS is too high for ASAT, and isn't the majority of satellites.
>You're right that debris is debris. But the wrench they dropped off the Shuttle and has subsequently decayed is not Kessler Syndrome. I know you really want it to be but it's not. It's just debris.
Why would it not count for Kessler syndrome?
Arakui2 t1_iz07mka wrote
Just ignore this fucking dude, he's describing the exact thing kessler is and then saying it isn't kessler. I'm convinced he isn't even reading his own arguments back
Doggydog123579 t1_iz08ma5 wrote
I'm too good of a person and try to assume the person I'm arguing with are stupid but arguing in good faith. But yeah he is definitely a troll
simcoder t1_iyzzkpz wrote
Why is ASAT the sole arbiter of potential debris? Are you now also saying you know about every single weapon system the US has in its arsenal?
Somehow given your position on wrenches == Kessler Syndrome, I'm not really sure I trust your space expertise.
lol
[deleted] t1_iz04z9t wrote
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