Doggydog123579 t1_iyz02v9 wrote
Reply to comment by simcoder in U.S. Space Force chief: The use of space technology in Ukraine ‘is what we can expect in the future’ by Corbulo2526
That article literally refers to multiple ground based systems it could be, then suggests an EWAR package on a satellite. Meanwhile we know Russia and China are working on land based lasers that can blind optical satellites. Or who could forget that Chinese satellite that started chasing a US one around?
Again, the US isn't doing stuff anyone else isn't also doing. Also the USSR already set the precedent with that space Cannon that you glossed over.
>And a simple debris cascade is enough to lock us out due to debris for as long as it takes the debris to deorbit which could be decades or centuries. Beyond that, an actual war in space could change the paradigm WRT space exploration and exploitation as we currently know it. Denial may become the dominant force. Particularly given denial is much cheaper than exploitation.
Kessler syndrome is a debris cascade. I've already covered why its not worth considering.
simcoder t1_iyz17h7 wrote
“We need to take a very hard look at what capabilities we keep concealed, as in our, quote, ‘ace-in-the-hole’ capabilities, if you will, that we would only use in an actual conflict to ensure we maintain the military overmatch we would need to ensure victory, without allowing the enemy to devise ways to defeat that particular capability by having advance knowledge of it”
Which could include space based weapons or satellites that chase other satellites around. Hunter-killers if you will. Pretty much everything is on the table and it would be foolish to think that we aren't deploying weapons up there. I think at this point you (or our adversaries) just have to assume we are and hope that maybe we aren't. But I don't think it's that big of an assumption.
And, you can say a debris cascade isn't worth considering. But it actually is. A debris cascade is a big deal and it will lock us out of space for however long. Even without a cascade, a space war is going to seriously impact future space operations.
And the destabilization that comes with the US aggressively asserting its space hegemony puts the US and the world at large in as much danger as the "defense" capabilities the Space Force brings to the table.
Doggydog123579 t1_iyz2lus wrote
>Which could include space based weapons or satellites that chase other satellites around. Hunter-killers if you will. Pretty much everything is on the table and it would be foolish to think that we aren't deploying weapons up there. I think at this point you (or our adversaries) just have to assume we are and hope that maybe we aren't. But I don't think it's that big of an assumption.
China already has that. We watched them do it. My argument has never been the US isnt militarizing space. My argument is your argument is based on AMERICA BAD logic.
>And, you can say a debris cascade isn't worth considering. But it actually is. A debris cascade is a big deal and it will lock us out of space for however long. Even without a cascade, a space war is going to seriously impact future space operations.
You literally told me Kessler syndrome doesn't matter earlier, the you say this which is literally Kessler syndrome. At this point I have enough proof to say you don't know what you are talking about.
BUT
one more time. The orbital altitudes that have enough shit in them to have Kessler syndrome or a debris cascade or whatever you want to to call it are low enough that they will self clear inside of 5 years. Outside that low orbit any debris created will stay for much longer, but there isn't enough satellites to have a chain reaction that locks us out of them.
>And the destabilization that comes with the US aggressively asserting its space hegemony puts the US and the world at large in as much danger as the "defense" capabilities the Space Force brings to the table.
Again, the balance of power isn't changing in space, so it can't destabilize the current situation. I don't think you understand what destabilizing means.
simcoder t1_iyz3pv1 wrote
I think you have to assume the US already had that or something similar as well. Even before Space Force. To think otherwise would be foolish.
The balance of power is changing. The US is asserting military hegemony over space. And is also leveraging space assets to give them an insurmountable competitive advantage on the battlefield. These are both very dangerous to the continuation of the peaceful exploitation and exploration of space. This is what makes the US the baddie here. :(
And...
Again...
Kessler doesn't matter because you don't need a full on Kessler to deny access to space. A run of the mill space war or minor debris cascade will do just fine.
That's why continually repeating the Kessler red herring is a fallacious argument.
Doggydog123579 t1_iyz572d wrote
>The balance of power is changing. The US is asserting military hegemony over space. And is also leveraging space assets to give them an insurmountable competitive advantage on the battlefield. These are both very dangerous to the continuation of the peaceful exploitation and exploration of space. This is what makes the US the baddie here. :(
All stuff we already had. The balance of power isn't changing. The US military has operated on the concept of full spectrum dominance for the last 30 years, and space is part of that. The US dominating the orbitals is nothing new, and US upgrading to newer tech as it becomes feasible is exactly how its always worked. As I already have said repeatedly, we have already seen China use a micro satellite that rendezvous with others. Then we have the X-37B and Chinas copy. Or the Space shuttle having giant wings to let it literally steal a Soviet satellite then land with it before completing a full orbit.
You are acting like this is new shit. Its not.
>Kessler doesn't matter because you don't need a full on Kessler to deny access to space. A run of the mill space war or minor debris cascade will do just fine.
That is still Kessler syndrome. Kessler syndrome is simply getting enough satellites and debris up that it degrades the operational lifetime of satellites in that orbit, and it can accelerate. It never actually required the orbit to be unusabale.
simcoder t1_iyz5zcw wrote
The balance of power is changing. The US is actively discussing and building a space military hegemony capable of withstanding "battles of attrition". One would have to assume that applies not only to the observational/Starlink stuff but also the space weaponry aspects. And the US is doing it quite publicly and dare I say it flagrantly.
That combined with the military utility and competitive advantage granted by space assets such as Starlink really ups the chances that the next big US war will start in space. Or some other war will bleed over into space to deny the US or its allies the use of those competitive advantages.
It seems pretty clear that you're fixated on Kessler. Probably thinking that was an easy win for you. But it's really not all that relevant. You can keep talking about it though I guess.
Doggydog123579 t1_iyz6ooy wrote
>The balance of power is changing. The US is actively discussing and building a space military hegemony capable of withstanding "battles of attrition". One would have to assume that applies not only to the observational/Starlink stuff but also the space weaponry aspects. And the US is doing it quite publicly and dare I say it flagrantly.
Jesus christ. Read the words im writing. Literally not a single thing you have said is new. The US shot a fucking satellite down with an F-15 in the 80s. Every single DDG has had the ability to use SM-3 for a decade. You are moral grandstanding about the US being bad because it is doing the exact same thing as everyone else to keep its current position, otherwise known as keeping the balance of power stable.
>It seems pretty clear that you're fixated on Kessler. Probably thinking that was an easy win for you. But it's really not all that relevant. You can keep talking about it though I guess.
No, I just don't like people saying Kessler is some super weapon that locks us out of space for centuries because they don't understand how orbits work. You just keep bringing it up under a diffrent name for some reason.
simcoder t1_iyz7jyp wrote
The Space Force is new. As is the sabre rattling "battles of attrition" and proliferation and coyly hinting about our shiny new space weapons.
All that stuff is new. Starlink is new. And the military competitive advantage it provides just makes the potential escalation to a hot war in space all the more likely. So that's also new.
And we were already the biggest dog on the block with the strongest military on the planet by a huge margin. And the destabilization caused by all that sabre rattling when we were already top dog is what makes the US the baddie in space right now.
And you don't need a Kessler is what I keep saying. But you keep bringing it up for some reason possibly because you don't want to face the implications of debris fields with century long decay periods. That would probably be a loss if you were to admit that.
Doggydog123579 t1_iyza83d wrote
We made the space force to better organize and operate our space assets, just as we made the air force to better organize and operate our air assets. You also ignored Russia having a space branch already, again. All of the tech you are going on about isn't new. The scale of it is but its all stuff we were already doing.
>And we were already the biggest dog on the block with the strongest military on the planet by a huge margin. And the destabilization caused by all that sabre rattling when we were already top dog is what makes the US the baddie in space right now
So how the fuck does the biggest dog on the block doing things to keep itself the biggest dog on the block destabilize things? That makes no logical sense. The US saber rattles the least of all the big nations, what happens is the giant is easier to see when it does anything.
Either you are just really misinformed, have a really misguided sense of right and wrong, or are a troll.
>And you don't need a Kessler is what I keep saying. But you keep bringing it up
I don't, you do
>but it's also a bit of a recipe for disaster and the subsequent losing of LEO for everyone.
Kessler
>And a simple debris cascade is enough to lock us out due to debris for as long as it takes the debris to deorbit which could be decades or centuries.
Kessler
>And, you can say a debris cascade isn't worth considering. But it actually is. A debris cascade is a big deal and it will lock us out of space for however long.
Kessler
Kessler syndrome is a debris cascade you moron
simcoder t1_iyzagem wrote
I guess we have to do this one thing at a time.
The point is you don't need a Kessler. That's the worst case scenario. An ordinary space war generating debris fields with century long decay times is good enough. Or a midling debris cascade that doesn't go full Kessler.
What part of that aren't you getting????
Doggydog123579 t1_iyzbu8p wrote
LEO can't have century long debris fields, and its where all these mega constellations exist, so other orbits don't really matter. furthermore all of the current ASAT weapons can't hit higher then high LEO anyways, so any other area is irrelevant. And a midling debris cascade is still Kessler syndrome. Kessler syndrome is a spectrum. It just means you have a debris cascade that is negatively effecting satellite lifespans. That can be anywhere from removing weeks to removing us from the satellites operating life. Making it impossible to use them was never a prerequisite for it to be Kessler syndrome.
simcoder t1_iyzdkow wrote
Well you're wrong on a number of points there. Let me try to explain a couple of them to you.
LEO very much does contain century long decay orbits. LEO extends out to 1000 miles or so. Technically, at the extreme, that could go all the way to thousand year decay. Maybe more.
I think most of the military stuff is a bit lower than that. But, if you're right and ASAT weapons are limited to lower LEO orbits that seems like that would be a pretty decent incentive to put your important stuff up there out of range of the easy ASAT kill.
Kessler is the long term debris cascade that runs away on itself...over the long term. If your theory that the debris clears in a few years and is nothing to worry about, then, it's not Kessler. Because it's over in just a few years and doesn't run away on itself. It's just a middling debris cascade that creates a little bit more debris and then decays.
The point being that you can have a debris cascade that eventually peters out. Technically, if some debris hits just one other satellite creating more debris that would qualify as a "debris cascade (of 1)".
And a debris cascade that eventually peters out is by definition NOT KESSLER. All debris probably contributes in some way to the long term runaway Kessler. But not all debris cascades are Kessler.
Doggydog123579 t1_iyzfvp5 wrote
>LEO very much does contain century long decay orbits. LEO extends out to 1000 miles or so. Technically, at the extreme, that could go all the way to thousand year decay. Maybe more.
The vast majority of satellites are sub 600km, so while true its effectively irrelevant.
>I think most of the military stuff is a bit lower than that. But, if you're right and ASAT weapons are limited to lower LEO orbits that seems like that would be a pretty decent incentive to put your important stuff up there out of range of the easy ASAT kill.
Good plan, except those satellites don't work at the higher altitudes.
>Kessler is the long term debris cascade that runs away on itself...over the long term. If your theory that the debris clears in a few years and is nothing to worry about, then, it's not Kessler. Because it's over in just a few years and doesn't run away on itself. It's just a middling debris cascade that creates a little bit more debris and then decays.
>The point being that you can have a debris cascade that eventually peters out. Technically, if some debris hits just one other satellite creating more debris that would qualify as a "debris cascade (of 1)".
>And a debris cascade that eventually peters out is by definition NOT KESSLER. All debris probably contributes in some way to the long term runaway Kessler. But not all debris cascades are Kessler.
You are so focused on the theory of it you are missing the forest for the trees. Kessler syndrome was based in the idea of a debris belt forming in orbit from a chain reaction of debris hitting satellites and other debris. It doesn't need to be growing or sustaining itself to still be Kessler Syndrome, it just needs to exist. VLEO experiencing such will still be clear within 5 years do to the low altitude. But that is still Kessler syndrome as a cascade generated a debris ring.
Or in simpler terms you have it backwords. ALL debris cascades are Kessler Syndrome, But Kessler syndrome can include other things
To quote the original source
As the number of artifical satellites in earth orbit increases, the probability of collisions between satellites increases. Satellite collisions would produce orbiting fragments, each of which would increase the probability of future collisions, leading to the growth of a belt of debris around the earth. This debris flux in such an earth orbiting belt could exceed the natural meteorite flux, affecting future spacecraft design.
Oh look, nothing about it making space unusable or being permanent.
simcoder t1_iyzg6if wrote
Not all debris cascades runaway. To be Kessler, they need to runaway. Your pet theory of decay in a couple years and everything's fine is not Kessler. No matter how much you try to shoehorn it in there. I'm kind of shocked you're still trying while so obviously being wrong.
And I just want to make sure we're clear that you can have decade or century long decay times in LEO. And that we don't know if the military has stuff higher than VLEO. Particularly, if you are correct and going higher gives you some immunity to cheap ASATs.
Are we clear on that?
Doggydog123579 t1_iyzhuum wrote
You just focused on theory instead of reality again. I quoted Kessler fucking paper that says nothing of the sort
Then you ignored the whole location of satellites.
simcoder t1_iyzi8q2 wrote
By your theory though, everything is Kessler including the wrench that they dropped off the Space Shuttle 30 years ago. It's kind of a ridiculously broad take.
And I didn't ignore anything. You just tried to dodge the issue that we don't know the altitude of every military satellite.
The reality is that a space war could very well lead to long duration debris fields that will impact space operations for the duration. And, as I mentioned earlier, the first space war could change the way everyone operates in space for the foreseeable future. Particularly given how much cheaper it is to deny space than it is to "defend" it.
Right now it's an "everyone's-land". After the first space war, it could turn into a no-mans-land. And to the extent the US escalation in space plays a part in that potential future, that makes the US the baddie in space right now.
Doggydog123579 t1_iyzijh5 wrote
>As the number of artifical satellites in earth orbit increases, the probability of collisions between satellites increases. Satellite collisions would produce orbiting fragments, each of which would increase the probability of future collisions, leading to the growth of a belt of debris around the earth. This debris flux in such an earth orbiting belt could exceed the natural meteorite flux, affecting future spacecraft design.
A wrench dropped by the shuttle does add to Kessler.
>And I didn't ignore anything. You just tried to dodge the issue that we don't know the altitude of every military satellite.
We actually do know the orbit of every military satellite, because you can't hide that from a telescope. Pick any satellite and I will tell you its exact orbit. The vast majority are under 600km because of their missions. Which puts them in range of ASAT.
simcoder t1_iyzj1l5 wrote
I notice you said the vast majority but you didn't say all.
Do you know the altitude of every single military asset in space? Is that listed somewhere that we could both look?
And the wrench is debris. You're right about that but still wrong about Kessler.
Doggydog123579 t1_iyzjev4 wrote
Yes vast majority. Which means hitting them degrades capabilites the most.
I just told you we know all the altitudes and eccentricities of every assest in space. You can't hide things in space.
https://in-the-sky.org/satmap_worldmap.php
Cosidering I'm using the original paper as a source, no, I'm not wrong about Kessler. Lets see your source for how Kessler works.
simcoder t1_iyzk087 wrote
How about GPS? Those can be pretty high. Seems like that might be something that the bad guys might have in their targets.
Speaking of bad guys, what if the bad guys have military stuff that's in orbits that don't decay for decades or centuries?
You're right that debris is debris. But the wrench they dropped off the Shuttle and has subsequently decayed is not Kessler Syndrome. I know you really want it to be but it's not. It's just debris.
Doggydog123579 t1_iyzx5c9 wrote
GPS is too high for ASAT, and isn't the majority of satellites.
>You're right that debris is debris. But the wrench they dropped off the Shuttle and has subsequently decayed is not Kessler Syndrome. I know you really want it to be but it's not. It's just debris.
Why would it not count for Kessler syndrome?
Arakui2 t1_iz07mka wrote
Just ignore this fucking dude, he's describing the exact thing kessler is and then saying it isn't kessler. I'm convinced he isn't even reading his own arguments back
Doggydog123579 t1_iz08ma5 wrote
I'm too good of a person and try to assume the person I'm arguing with are stupid but arguing in good faith. But yeah he is definitely a troll
simcoder t1_iyzzkpz wrote
Why is ASAT the sole arbiter of potential debris? Are you now also saying you know about every single weapon system the US has in its arsenal?
Somehow given your position on wrenches == Kessler Syndrome, I'm not really sure I trust your space expertise.
lol
[deleted] t1_iz04z9t wrote
[removed]
Arakui2 t1_iz078y5 wrote
"A run of the mill space war or minot debris cascade will do just fine" That is kessler, you are describing kessler.
simcoder t1_iz07pra wrote
How so?
Arakui2 t1_iz08h6i wrote
Kessler syndrome, by definition, is a debris cascade in LEO. When you describe a "minor debris cascade" you are therefore, by definition, describing kessler syndrome.
simcoder t1_iz08pom wrote
So no runaway chain reaction required for your version of Kessler? What if a wrench fell of the Space Shuttle, would that qualify as Kessler Syndrome?
Arakui2 t1_iz08tq7 wrote
Any space debris in LEO adds to kessler syndrome, yes.
simcoder t1_iz08yl4 wrote
Is a wrench falling off the Space Shuttle Kessler Syndrome?
Arakui2 t1_iz0983m wrote
Kessler syndrome is a cumulative effect. Not a single quantifiable object. To imply you can measure or quantify kessler is ridiculous. It is purely theoretical, and an outdated theoretical framework at that.
simcoder t1_iz09cfn wrote
It's a simple question. Yes or no. Would a wrench falling off the space shuttle qualify as Kessler Syndrome?
Arakui2 t1_iz09r4x wrote
1). No, it is not a simple question. These are advanced theoretical orbital mechanics, not primary school math equations.
2). Since the wrench is space debris, it would add to the cumulative effect of kessler syndrome. It is not kessler syndrome by itself because the argument you are presenting is a misreading and misrepresentation of what kessler syndrome is. Stop trying to quantify theoretical cumulatives, it makes you look stupid.
simcoder t1_iz0ac2j wrote
So it's not Kessler Syndrome. I agree. lol
The crazy thing is that whether or not a particular debris field or cascade qualifies as Kessler Syndrome really doesn't affect my core argument. If anything a space war leading to a runaway chain reaction helps solidify my argument.
[deleted] t1_iz0azxd wrote
[removed]
simcoder t1_iz0fgpd wrote
For some reason I can't reply to your last reply but here's my response anyway :P
My point with the whole "Kessler or no" debate was that you don't need a full on Kessler to have a dramatic impact on LEO and beyond.
If you really must die on the hill of "it's all Kessler", that's fine. A full on Kessler makes my point even more dramatically. If you think all space debris can be construed as Kessler, that's great. I'm happy for you. I disagree but it's mostly irrelevant to my main argument.
Arakui2 t1_iz0gyds wrote
While you are correct in your statement that you don't need a full kessler to affect LEO, you are vastly overestimating the amount of debris that would be needed to create a kessler of significant enough size to stifle spaceflight on any level. The volume of upper LEO is so vast that there simply aren't enough satellites there to create a debris field big enough in the first place, not even mentioning how difficult it would be to create the debris initially, considering pracitcal studies conducted by the US military have shown that current ASATs are impractical at best, entirely useless at worst.
simcoder t1_iz0idpk wrote
Let's say Elon deploys his dream of a 30k constellation and that thing runaway chain reacts with each other.
Very often, you'll hear from the fanbase that could happen but it wouldn't be a big deal because it will all deorbit in 5 years.
But it actually would be a very big deal for everyone involved in space. Anything between the upper shells and the ground would likely be very negatively affected up to and including getting destroyed.
A lot of people would likely end up being very very unhappy that the hubris of a 30k constellation caused the world to have to put their space ambitions on hold for 5 years and sacrifice whatever got in the way of the carnage.
What you're doing here is very similar.
A space war generating a bunch of debris would be very bad for space business and could cause either a partial or complete shutdown of space while everything clears out. Any debris higher than VLEO would likely have knock-on effects for years or decades down the road.
And the very fact we had the first space war resulting in a bunch of space assets getting blown up would likely have a significant cooling of people's space ambitions in general. And could result in earth orbit becoming a military no man's land if the military tensions continue.
Arakui2 t1_iz0k2ud wrote
Ugh. Not this shit again. I'll go through it real quick because I can't be bothered arguing with people who ignore common sense specifically when it come to starlink.
1- Starlink satellites cannot and will not collide. Spacex keeps them at different altitudes and monitors them constantly, with redirections taking place if they are on course for a collision. Spacex will never allow a collision to occur as it hurts them more than anyone else.
2- Any debris from a starlink collision will burn up in the upper atmosphere within 90 days, it is physically impossible for it to stay in orbit. The 5 year number is with constant firing of their ion engines, not without them.
3- I have explained this time and time again. There is not enough potential debris his high LEO to stifle spaceflight. LEO has more than enough but it will all burn up within a small time frame.
4- If you're going so be this whataboutist over this, war in space would be a war on the ground too. It would go nuclear, and humanity would be wiped out. Therefore, there is not point in even considering a kessler beyond that.
simcoder t1_iz0lgsc wrote
I was just quoting the number the original Kessler guy used.
"We are talking at most 5 years for all the debris to clear out, at which point LEO is open again."
lol
​
I think the point still stands though. You're basically saying a space war would be no big deal because space is big and Starlink is low.
But I think that's horrifically oversimplifying things. You yourself mentioned the elephant in the room, ie nuclear war. All of this plays into that. And further calls into question the aggressive militarization of space given it could lead to that.
It's like you guys are making my argument for me. :P
Arakui2 t1_iz0lyuz wrote
You miss that he was talking about everything in LEO, yet you specifically mentioned starlink which is far less susceptible to the point of it being impossible to create a kessler.
And yes, that's exactly what I'm saying. Space is big, starlink can't create a kessler, and a space war will never happen just like a nuclear war will never happen. You aren't even arguing anything anymore, so it isn't possible for me to argue for you lmao
simcoder t1_iz0mkdf wrote
A nuclear will never happen? lol
I didn't realize that you were so naive...
And a space war is almost certain to happen eventually. Same with a nuclear war. That's what humans do. It's a shame but that's reality for you.
To ignore that sad reality of humanity just makes it that much more likely when go around aggressively militarizing space.
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