Ramental t1_j135bj0 wrote on December 21, 2022 at 9:12 AM

Reply to comment by ttystikk in Evaluation reveals 0.8mm hole in Soyuz MS-22 spacecraft — "not very pleasant", replacement being prepared [Roscosmos/TASS] by Riegel_Haribo

+30 with everything shut down would mean it's about to get hotter once the electronics and engines are fired. Unclear by how much, but it's risky if the astronauts get a heat stroke or even die from overheating during the return. During the descendant stage when the capsule gets heated by friction it might be far worse and they boil alive, but I'm speculating here.

From what I just googled, seems like there are no welding tools on ISS due to the heat control problems that'd happen if one uses it. Replacing the tubes is also likely no possible (where would they get parts). We also don't know if there is a way to refill the coolant.

Perhaps there is a reserve loop, then it could be used. Otherwise, unlikely it can be repaired in space.

My bet is that it won't be used for the return. At least the US will back off, likely. Russia will probably follow, because Russia has far smaller pool of the astronauts, and having 2 of them dead would be unpleasant, but could still be presented as a sick twisted victory if an American died with them. If Russians die alone - that would be just a sign of incompetence and a failure of another of limited propaganda pillars Russia has.

ttystikk t1_j1364x8 wrote on December 21, 2022 at 9:24 AM

This is space, not stupid war propaganda. They're working together on the problem.

If the cooling system is necessary for re-entry they have a problem. I can say for certain that such a cooling system is NOT the difference between boiling occupants alive (they're also in space suits for the trip) and a successful return. It's likely needed for electronics.

I'm looking forward to hearing more about this situation as it unfolds.

These kinds of collisions are about to get a lot more common and that's a big problem for everyone flying in space.

ajd660 t1_j146kzw wrote on December 21, 2022 at 3:26 PM

It may not be stupid war propaganda, but I would not put it past the Russians to blame America again, especially after last time when there was a hole in the ISS:

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-could-take-legal-action-against-nasa-astronaut-accused-drilling-hole-spacecraft-1655420

oldbastardbob t1_j145pzz wrote on December 21, 2022 at 3:20 PM

I can't wait for some multi-billion dollar space program launch to get peppered with Starlink space cubes as it leaves the atmosphere. That'll be something.

trashae t1_j14idu8 wrote on December 21, 2022 at 4:43 PM

That’s unlikely to happen. Starlink knows the location of their hardware and shares that with people. I like to compare it to the asteroid belt where sure there is an area you’re more likely to hit something, but the odds are still astronomically low

RifewithWit t1_j16ga9j wrote on December 22, 2022 at 12:33 AM

They're also in an unstable orbit, and require direct control to keep them aloft. In the event that one becomes unresponsive or is damaged, it will de-orbit with a month or two, iirc, and burn up on reentry.