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4thDevilsAdvocate t1_ivk99jx wrote

Reply to comment by FreefolkForever2 in Do you think it's possible for Elon to land people on Mars by 2029? I am skeptical of his claims. by [deleted]

Objectively, it's probably possible, and SpaceX has certainly made moves in that direction, what with Starship and the offshore launch platform conversion project.

But by 2029? Musk is either lying — which I see no motivation for him to do — or he hasn't an idea what he's talking about.

At most, maybe an empty, uncrewed Starship will smack the Martian atmosphere by 2029, and potentially even make a one-way landing. But the odds of that are low, IMO.

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standarduser2 t1_ivmdjms wrote

You might not see his motivation for lying, yet he does all the time.

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4thDevilsAdvocate t1_ivmflc0 wrote

Why would he lie in this case? What benefit does it provide him?

Automatically assuming everything Musk says is a lie has logical gaps that are pointed out the second he says something like "the sky is blue" or "one company I run, SpaceX, builds rockets".

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standarduser2 t1_ivmpty6 wrote

Musk said they would go to Mars in 2022, then 2024, then 2026.

I don't know why he lies, I just know what he does.

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4thDevilsAdvocate t1_ivmq09b wrote

Have you considered that, instead of consciously lying, he might simply have no clue what he's talking about?

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standarduser2 t1_ivq9fvd wrote

There's zero chance he believed his cars could drive NY to LA in 2016.

So, I've considered it, but the evidence is not there.

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4thDevilsAdvocate t1_ivqafh4 wrote

>There's zero chance he believed his cars could drive NY to LA in 2016.

Which has what to do with this?

Him lying under other circumstances (even if he was lying) doesn't mean that he's lying in this one. If he said the sky was blue, would you not believe him because he lied in 2016?

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standarduser2 t1_ivra0nr wrote

The claim he will be on Mars in 2029 is obviously unlikely.

And yes, when someone is a pathological liar, its hard to believe their lies in the future. A constant liar and hype man making any claim makes it less believed.

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