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ClearlyCylindrical OP t1_ixzxw55 wrote

The code I used to generate this graph can be found here.

I used the datasets found on planet4589 to generate this graph. There are a few issues with this the data, in that the launch list does not specify the variant of the given vehicle. Because of this the payload capacity for a given vehicle is taken to be the average of all variants.

This graph is plotting the payload capacity to LEO, not the payload sent to LEO. Essentially, it is plotting the total payload sent to orbit assuming all launches were at their payload limit, and were only sending payloads to LEO.

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djellison t1_iy44p3h wrote

> This graph is plotting the payload capacity to LEO

What number are you using for Falcon 9?

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ClearlyCylindrical OP t1_iy450k1 wrote

With my code it works out to around 15 tonnes. It's not great as it just averages the values for all variants, but thankfully it turns out to be pretty close to the true value of around 16-17 tonnes for a droneship landed booster.

I plan on improving this in future in order to take into account the different variants instead of just averaging them.

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djellison t1_iy47y61 wrote

That's a pretty good number to use - I was concerned you might have picked the number SpaceX has on their website that isn't even really possible to fit inside the fairing of an F9 :D

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SteelyEyedHistory t1_iy044by wrote

How would this look without SpaceX’s Starlink launches? They’re the bulk of the growth I’m sure.

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ClearlyCylindrical OP t1_iy06b71 wrote

Here you go

There are two graphs here, the first is without any spacex launches, and the second is without any starlink launches.

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pietroq t1_iy2t7bc wrote

Excellent graphs, thanks! Very telling how important SpaceX is.

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jeffwolfe t1_iy36204 wrote

The "Other than that Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?" graphs.

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AbsentThatDay t1_iy05fyq wrote

I'm wondering if ICBMs are included on the chart, as some have the capacity to reach LEO.

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ClearlyCylindrical OP t1_iy06o5y wrote

They will not be included. The dataset lists the flights which reach orbit, and then determines the payload of the vehicle from the name of the vehicle given in the dataset.

The vehicle dataset does contain the capabilities for sub-orbital launch vehicles, and there is a dataset for the suborbital vehicle launches on the site which I linked in my comment, and so you could try to process that too if you were so inclined.

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colonizetheclouds t1_iy48k67 wrote

even an ICBM that goes halfway around the world is still waaay short of reaching orbit.

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AbsentThatDay t1_iy5jta9 wrote

I believe they reach orbital velocity though, it's just the trajectory that is different.

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