Viewing a single comment thread. View all comments

TheLoneTomatoe t1_iu9rges wrote

3

funkboxing t1_iu9vfj1 wrote

Anywhere you can readily build infrastructure on the ground it will be less expensive and more scalable than satellite service. Satellites will be excellent for extending coverage and providing redundancy, but packets origins and destination are always on the ground so there will always be a premium for sending them through orbital infrastructure.

There are underserved areas where Amazon's delivery infrastructure might present opportunities to build out wired and area wifi services to the surrounding community. I'm not thinking they would or anything, it would be a slower and lower return investment than trying to compete for the satellite market because there are plenty of people who don't have to care about the premium.

23

horsemagicians t1_iuaecq9 wrote

Satellite internet was never intended for large metro areas. Same problem as when cell coverage goes to shit in huge crowds. It was always designed for more rural areas. A connection straight to the wall is faster than wifi and ground based internet is going to be faster in metro areas than satellite. They need to do what Google did years back.

That said more competition on the ground and in space is never a bad thing when talking about utilities.

11

zomfgcoffee t1_iuba49t wrote

The cool part about having t mobile as a cell provider is the coverage also goes to shit while not in huge crowds!

3

wbruce098 t1_iubjqto wrote

In addition to the issues others have expressed, I think we still underestimate just how damn expensive it is to send anything to space. I’m having a little trouble finding anything definitive because each site I look at seems to vary wildly in how much things cost, but a general price for low earth orbit insertion is ~$5-10k per lb and each Starlink satellite is 573lb. It’s estimated they cost between $250-500k/ea though that almost certainly does not include launch costs (my napkin math is $1.5-3 million total). SpaceX might send them at cost, since it’s their own company, significantly reducing that per pound cost but that’s still a lot of money.

These satellites have a limited lifespan and will need to be replaced every few years (once they run out of thrust fuel they’ll gradually de-orbit and burn up in the atmosphere). SpaceX’s Starlink has about 3,000 in orbit now.

OTOH, a 5G internet tower costs more like $40k, is always in range (though it’s coverage area is much, much much smaller), will have much less latency due to shorter distance, greater bandwidth, and doesn’t need to be fully replaced every few years. So putting a few thousand of these things around a large city should provide decent coverage and faster speeds for a fraction of the cost of satellites.

It’s not a bad system. There are many strong use cases for satellite internet, especially in more rural areas and places where infrastructure is lacking or hard to build. And economics of scale + slowly improving technology do continue to bring satellite costs down. It’s just definitely not the most effective internet for most urban and many suburban folks, especially in western countries where fiber and 5G towers are already very common.

−1

TheLoneTomatoe t1_iubke56 wrote

Do you know how many customers a single starlink/kuiper satellite support compared to 1 5g tower?

2

wbruce098 t1_iublqj7 wrote

A hell of a lot more. By my estimates you get at least 50 of those 5G towers per satellite. But the satellites also have greater latency (about 500ms to LEO, IIRC, due to limits on the speed of light) and lower total bandwidth (around 1gbps compared to 8gbps with the towers). Those numbers are subjective of course so it depends but I just can’t see Starlink outperforming terrestrial internet where such internet is available.

0

Adeldor t1_iubphbm wrote

> But the satellites also have greater latency (about 500ms to LEO, IIRC, due to limits on the speed of light)

LEO (Starlink) latencies are more like 50 ms. Geostationary satellites are the ones feeling the light-speed-limit with 500 ms ping times.

Interestingly, over long distances, Starlink is potentially faster than fiber, as the speed of light through a vacuum is near c, but through fiber is 0.7c at best.

8

wbruce098 t1_iucohoz wrote

Oh thanks for that latency correction! That makes a huge difference.

2

TheLoneTomatoe t1_iubmahx wrote

What's your estimate on the towers?

I know the exact numbers for the satellites, but know less about the towers.

1

wbruce098 t1_iuco9oy wrote

Yeah so that’s a bit of a complex thing. I know satellites can technically reach anyone in their footprint, with a few exceptions (like those near the edge). But the towers can provide incredibly fast connection if you’re close by, but that drops off rapidly. I live about 170-200 meters from one of those little 5G internet antennas (the lamp post sized ones, not the giant cell towers), and can barely receive it’s signal, partly because of blocked line of sight (a row of brick townhomes; they’re probably limited in how high they can raise them due to skyline interruption or whatever). Just rough guesstimating based on some really crappy math, there’s probably something in the vicinity of 400-500 townhomes in range of that thing, just not me! The internet tells me they have a range of 300-450 meters but that probably is under ideal conditions: say, a taller tower in a less densely populated area.

That’s still probably more than enough customers to justify the relatively low cost of putting hundreds or even thousands of these things up in dense urban neighborhoods, compared to say, running cables and junction boxes and such.

The taller cellular service towers would have a greater range but maybe not massively so because as I understand it, the ultra wideband 5G doesn’t have quite the range of lower frequencies used on 4G (or lower band 5G) so your top 5G speeds are really gonna depend a lot more on how close you are to that tower, how densely they’re packed in, and a lot more on the kind of obstructions that are in the LOS than lower frequency wireless products.

What’s that number for Starlink? At least, how many people could a single satellite cover with solid ultrasuperludicrous-HD Rings of Power streaming worthy speeds at once? I’m sure it varies a bit because the satellites are constantly moving but what’s the rough stats?

0

seanflyon t1_iubs8x8 wrote

We don't know the exact internal cost to SpaceX to launch a Falcon 9, but it is somewhere around $30 million. Each launch can put up 60 Starlink satellites, so that is around half a million each. Anyone can buy launches for much less than $5k/lb, that would be $185 million for a reusable F9 or $250 million for an expendable F9.

Your napkin-math estimates are too high.

2

wbruce098 t1_iuconj0 wrote

NASA had reported they were paying closer to $9k/lb with SpaceX but that could’ve been older data. Like I said, I saw a different price on every website I looked 😅

−1

swd120 t1_iudmarh wrote

NASA also pays an inflated cost from extra requirements then put on the launch. If they just purchase ootb launches it would be much cheaper.

3

seanflyon t1_iuektkz wrote

You definitely have something mixed up. Maybe you are thinking of sending cargo in a Dragon capsule to the ISS.

2