It's possible. Impacts happen, Soyuz isn't especially well shielded, and Soyuz docks to the "front" of the ISS (the side that faces prograde, into the direction of travel and therefore into the direction where you expect to find high energy stuff to hit)

... Butttt... While the ISS is much better protected and it's entirely plausible that it's not damaged by hits that hurt Soyuz, someone should still notice impact scarring even if the impact has no effect inside the station, and the Soyuz is a small part of the profile of the station - If Soyuz and Progress (same form factor) each take one hit, you'd expect the station to take.... At least five or six, maybe? Just a guess, not a measured statistic... But you see where I'm going with it.

Russian spacecraft getting hit makes sense, only Russian spacecraft and not the station they're attached to is kinda suspicious.

That said, in the interest of perhaps undue (the Ukrainian half of my family would definitely agree it's undue, but that's not how math works) fairness to Russia - Two is not a very large sample. Just because it's unlikely doesn't mean it's out of the question - After all, people have won at roulette before, and likely will continue to.