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ArmChairAnalyst86 t1_j96yl9j wrote

Reply to comment by MonsterRideOp in Sun unleashes massive X2-class solar flare during geomagnetic storm watch (video) by Realistic-Plant3957

I agree overall. X Class flares of this variety occur fairly frequently. There's a bit too much sensationalism about these flares. That said, a direct hit from even a lower X class flare could have implications for earth and satellites but likely minor in nature.

In 89' an X15 and resulting CME hit earth. Aurora made it south as Texas and Quebec lost their grid for several hours. Communications were affected worldwide. It was still just a love tap, despite being a moderately strong storm. I understand that there are several factors that influence the magnitude of resulting geomagnetic storms but the 89 event does provide a decent frame of reference for strength of flare and resulting storm/effects on earth.

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MonsterRideOp t1_j97hdpk wrote

A major factor in the strength of a geomagnetic storm is the strength of the Earth's magnetic field. It's been dropping since we first started measuring it and has fallen by at least 20%. As it continues to drop weaker CMEs will cause stronger storms and strong CMEs that the field would usually just shrug off now have a larger chance to cause damage to our electrical infrastructure.

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ArmChairAnalyst86 t1_j97jthw wrote

Yeah, no kidding. It's doing some weird things. I think it may have factored into the red aurorae becoming more common like this past week despite the relatively low magnitude events observed.

It's astonishing how much we have left to learn about the dynamics of our solar system alone. I still think that despite the weakening of the magnetosphere, it still is mostly a game of luck with the flare itself. A large and powerful flare aimed directly at earth is a very bad day.

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MonsterRideOp t1_j97kj1t wrote

No doubt there, just look at what happened during the Carrington event. That flare was estimated at X40 and set telegraph lines on fire. If we got hit with one of similar strength today it would be devastating.

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