Kafke t1_j4e9b3c wrote on January 15, 2023 at 2:23 AM

voted 10 years or more. Anyone saying otherwise does not understand humans, and does not understand current AI.

Just recently we got the very first announcements of an AI being able to generate a simple video. The video was incredibly poor quality, suffered the usual temporal consistency issues, was very short, lacked audio, etc.

It'll take a few years at least for ai generated videos to be deemed "human-watchable" rather than "first steps in research". So that's already looking like 2-5 years at least.

From there, we'll likely end up seeing the same issues that stable diffusion is facing today, with many people in the field opposing it's use.

Lastly, you put "most" in the criteria, meaning over 50% of content. This is extremely unlikely, even if such content does manage to appear within the next decade. If we do hit such a deadline, it'll only initially be a small portion of content at the beginning.

My estimate is that I expect some portion of content (say, less than 30%) to be ai generated within 50 years. Referring here to books, youtube videos, and comics/manga, along with music.

Though I'm fairly conservative in this regard, so I guess we'll see.

Mountain-Award7440 t1_j4fg681 wrote on January 15, 2023 at 9:25 AM

I agree with this only because OP specifically limited their criteria to most big movies, excluding indie.

What’s really going to happen is that everyone will generate their own independent films and eventually no one will pay much attention to big movies anymore. When does that happen? I’d say around 10-15 years before the AI-generated films can truly hang with the big films. But hey I’d rather watch something like Clerks than the latest capeshit anyways… so if AI can generate really good characters, plots, and dialogue in 5 years but is still 5-10 years away from AAA visuals, it won’t matter at all to me.

Kafke t1_j4fgd4t wrote on January 15, 2023 at 9:28 AM

Yup. That's my view as well. I'm guessing we'll get watchable vidoes maybe within 5 years. And from there it'll be a small niche where people make their own indie movies, but that's not up to hollywood quality just yet. A few years after that I imagine it might be used in hollywood for a movie or two. It'll take a long while before they switch over entirely.

Hard to say, but I'm not expecting it soon.