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blueSGL OP t1_j53btzc wrote

Reply to comment by icedrift in I was wrong about metaculus, (and the AGI predicted date has dropped again, now at may 2027) by blueSGL

You might find this section of an interview with Ajeya Cotra (of biological anchors for forecasting AI timelines fame)

Starts at 29.14 https://youtu.be/pJSFuFRc4eU?t=1754

Where she talks about how several benchmarks were past early last year that surveys of ML workers had a median of 2026.
Also she casts doubt on people that are working in the field but are not working on specifically forecasting AGI/TAI directly as a source for useful information.

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Ortus14 t1_j54byn2 wrote

It has always been the case that people working within a field over-estimate how long it will take to achieve things within that field. They are hyper focused on their tiny part and miss the big picture.

To make accurate predictions you need to use data, trendlines and growth curves. It literally doesn't matter how many "experts" are surveyed, the facts remain the facts.

A few people making data and trendline based predictions hold far more weight than an infinite number of "experts" that base their predictions on anything other than trendlines.

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