> Also, I'm a bit skeptical that the amount of progress that's been made in AI the past year (which has been impressive, no doubt) merits THAT much of a shave-off from the February 2022 prediction. Just my thoughts.

Correct, and if anything, the mere fact that the prediction has changed by over a decade in the span of 12 months is strong evidence of exactly what you’re saying — this prediction is made by people who aren’t really in the know.

If the weather man told you it was going to be 72 and sunny tomorrow and then when you woke up tomorrow he said actually it’s going to be -15 and a blizzard you would probably think hmmm, maybe this guy doesn’t know what the fuck he’s talking about.