I never said it'd be 10 years, though it could for all anyone knows. If I said it would be released in 2035, and widely adopted by 2040, I don't think that's unreasonable. But I also believe in a slow takeoff and more practical timelines. Even Google, as seemingly ubiquitous as it is, did not become that way overnight, it took a few years to become widely known and used. Also we're dealing with multiple unknowns, like how many companies are working on AGI, how far along they are, how long it takes to adequately train them before release, how the rest of the world (not just enthusiasts) accepts or doesn't accept AGI, how many markets will be disrupted and the reaction to that, legal issues along the way, etc. etc. Optimistic timelines don't seem to account for everything.

Edit: I should also mention one of the biggest hurdles is even getting people to understand and agree on what AGI is! We could have it for years and many people might not even realize. Conversely, we have people claiming we have it NOW, or that certain things are AGI when they aren't even close.

I have chatGPT in my frickin' pocket most of the day. It's amazing but mostly just a testbot still so here I am, kind of meh, even though it was not on my radar for at least a few years, or so I thought a few months ago.

Faster than expected. And yet life carries on much as before, with a little sorcerer's apprentice nearby if I want to bother. What a time!