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SoylentRox t1_j3p8ys3 wrote

Reply to comment by Ok_Homework9290 in "Community" Prediction for General A.I continues to drop. by 420BigDawg_

>most AI/ML expert surveys continue to have an AGI arrival year average of some decades from now/mid-century plus, and the majority of individuals who are AI/ML researchers have similar AGI timelines

You know, when the Manhattan project was being worked on, who would you trust for a prediction of the first nuke detonation, Enrico Fermi or some physicist who had worked on radioactive materials.

I'm suspicious that any "experts" with valid opinions exist outside of well funded labs (openAI/google/meta/anthropic/hugging face etc)

They are saying a median of about ~8 years, which would be 2031.

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Ok_Homework9290 t1_j3qcmla wrote

>They are saying a median of about ~8 years, which would be 2031.

That's an oddly specific number/year.

Also, remember that people who work at AI corporations, as opposed to academia (for example), have the tendency to hype up their work, which makes their timelines (on average) shorter. To me personally, a survey of AI researchers on timelines has more weight than AI Twitter, which is infested with hype.

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Thelmara t1_j3s2c1e wrote

> That's an oddly specific number/year.

No, that's the median of a spread, and it's stated with the caveat of "about". That's literally the opposite of "specific".

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will-succ-4-guac t1_j3rm0sa wrote

Source on that 8 years number? Would certainly be quite a compelling argument if a random sampling of exclusively well funded AI PhDs had a median prediction of 8 years.

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SoylentRox t1_j3rovna wrote

It's just the opinions on the eleuther AI discord. Arguably weak general AI will be here in 1-2 years.

My main point is the members I am referring to all live in Bay Area and work for hugging face and openAI. Their opinion is more valid than say a 60 year old professor in the artificial intelligence department at Carnegie melon.

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