AsheyDS t1_j3ovmd1 wrote on January 10, 2023 at 1:30 AM

Reply to comment by [deleted] in "Community" Prediction for General A.I continues to drop. by 420BigDawg_

I just feel like a lot of people are seeing some acceleration and think that this is all of it. What I think, is that we'll continue seeing regular advances in tech and AI, science in general. But the 30's will be the start of AGI, and 40's will be when it really takes off (in terms of adoption and utilization). Even a guess of before 2035 is, in my estimation, an optimistic projection where everything goes right and there aren't any setbacks or delays. But just saying 30's is a solid guess.

imlaggingsobad t1_j3oyoyq wrote on January 10, 2023 at 1:51 AM

Your prediction and the 2027 prediction could both be right. DeepMind and OpenAI could have something that looks like AGI in 2027, but they keep it within the lab for another 3 years just testing it and building safeguards. Then in the 30s they go public with it and it begins proliferating. Then maybe it takes 10 years for it to transform manufacturing, agriculture, robotics, medicine, and the wider population, etc, due to regulation, ethical concerns, and resource limits.

Baturinsky t1_j3s0gpp wrote on January 10, 2023 at 6:00 PM

How big do you think are chances it going Paperclip Maximizer-level wrong?

imlaggingsobad t1_j3t365v wrote on January 10, 2023 at 9:52 PM

low. at most 5%. Although 5% is still high.

coumineol t1_j3pxg3w wrote on January 10, 2023 at 6:40 AM

>But the 30's will be the start of AGI, and 40's will be when it really takes off

I vehemently disagree. How would it take 10 years for such a transformative technology to be optimized and utilized? Do you have a timeline for that 10 years between "start of the AGI" and its takeoff?

AsheyDS t1_j3r7vte wrote on January 10, 2023 at 3:02 PM

I never said it'd be 10 years, though it could for all anyone knows. If I said it would be released in 2035, and widely adopted by 2040, I don't think that's unreasonable. But I also believe in a slow takeoff and more practical timelines. Even Google, as seemingly ubiquitous as it is, did not become that way overnight, it took a few years to become widely known and used. Also we're dealing with multiple unknowns, like how many companies are working on AGI, how far along they are, how long it takes to adequately train them before release, how the rest of the world (not just enthusiasts) accepts or doesn't accept AGI, how many markets will be disrupted and the reaction to that, legal issues along the way, etc. etc. Optimistic timelines don't seem to account for everything.

Edit: I should also mention one of the biggest hurdles is even getting people to understand and agree on what AGI is! We could have it for years and many people might not even realize. Conversely, we have people claiming we have it NOW, or that certain things are AGI when they aren't even close.

gobbo t1_j3rm9j7 wrote on January 10, 2023 at 4:35 PM

I have chatGPT in my frickin' pocket most of the day. It's amazing but mostly just a testbot still so here I am, kind of meh, even though it was not on my radar for at least a few years, or so I thought a few months ago.

Faster than expected. And yet life carries on much as before, with a little sorcerer's apprentice nearby if I want to bother. What a time!

arisalexis t1_j3q2fvz wrote on January 10, 2023 at 7:41 AM

Did 2022 actually feel as "some" acceleration to you?

AsheyDS t1_j3r91af wrote on January 10, 2023 at 3:10 PM

Feel? No, not quite. But it's all relative. If one narrows their perspective on what's to come, it could feel like a huge change already. Personally I think this is just us dipping our toes into the water, so to speak. So yes "some" acceleration, especially when considering how many people think that what we've seen so far is half or most of the way to AGI.