TopicRepulsive7936 t1_j6h54u6 wrote on January 30, 2023 at 7:42 AM

Reply to comment by maskedpaki in New York Times [July, 1997] 'Computer needs another century or two to defeat Go champion' LMAOOO this is so hilarious to read looking back by Phoenix5869

Maybe not laughable but possibly risky because changes could happen 10 or 100 times faster than that.

maskedpaki t1_j6hmvzz wrote on January 30, 2023 at 11:47 AM

Or 10 to 100 times slower.

The future is hard to predict. The past predictions mostly failed because they were too aggressive not because they were too conservative most of the time

This is a small exception

TopicRepulsive7936 t1_j6hoa8p wrote on January 30, 2023 at 12:04 PM

There's actually a good lesson here. Deep Blue was completely predictable decades out, if you believed in continued accelerating returns that is. AlphaGo wasn't. Luckily it was just about a game that time.

maskedpaki t1_j6hq48c wrote on January 30, 2023 at 12:24 PM

Maybe not decades out but there were computers that played go several years prior to alphago with lower elo rating

In fact alphagos elo rating is continuous with previous systems that played go. It wasn't a breakthrough. Just a flashy display because it was against superstar Lee sedol.