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Villad_rock t1_j6dii8f wrote

I always laugh at people who think in centuries

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maskedpaki t1_j6g92bp wrote

If I say by 2050 is that also laughable ?

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TopicRepulsive7936 t1_j6h54u6 wrote

Maybe not laughable but possibly risky because changes could happen 10 or 100 times faster than that.

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maskedpaki t1_j6hmvzz wrote

Or 10 to 100 times slower.

The future is hard to predict. The past predictions mostly failed because they were too aggressive not because they were too conservative most of the time

This is a small exception

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TopicRepulsive7936 t1_j6hoa8p wrote

There's actually a good lesson here. Deep Blue was completely predictable decades out, if you believed in continued accelerating returns that is. AlphaGo wasn't. Luckily it was just about a game that time.

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maskedpaki t1_j6hq48c wrote

Maybe not decades out but there were computers that played go several years prior to alphago with lower elo rating

In fact alphagos elo rating is continuous with previous systems that played go. It wasn't a breakthrough. Just a flashy display because it was against superstar Lee sedol.

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