civilrunner t1_j5z903u wrote on January 26, 2023 at 4:30 PM

A full self driving car is far likelier to see a human and drive at speeds where it can stop prior in time to avoid a collusion at all times. An autonomous car doesn't get emotional, it doesn't get sleepy, it doesn't get distracted, and it has constant 360 degree range of view and is generating rather accurate behavioral predictive models now, and can always know its stopping distance and more.

I 100% would trust a PROVEN self-driving system over any human any day.

AdmiralKurita t1_j60hm3j wrote on January 26, 2023 at 9:06 PM

>I 100% would trust a PROVEN self-driving system over any human any day.

Me too. I am sure 90% of people would think the same, even those who are pessimistic about self-driving cars such as myself. The question is when would self-driving systems be proven and accessible. I think by 2040.

civilrunner t1_j60i8sg wrote on January 26, 2023 at 9:10 PM

>The question is when would self-driving systems be proven and accessible. I think by 2040.

I think sometime between 2028 and 2040. Depending on how hard snow and rain are to solve and how challenging scaling is (my guess is scaling will simply be driven by rate of manufacturing which means 3 years to fill market penetration after full self driving is solved).

I honestly think it will be solved faster than some believe due to exponential rates of data collection for autonomous fleets in combination with better computing capabilities and better AI architecture. I still place it in the late 2020s at the earliest though for mass market and well later than that if we're talking reliable snow driving, etc...