Submitted by Buck-Nasty t3_10ocf4z in singularity
Belostoma t1_j6erizs wrote
Reply to comment by bloxxed in OpenAI has hired an army of contractors to make basic coding obsolete by Buck-Nasty
You'll be fine.
AI is not going to be able to really replace programmers for a long time, and the people saying it will just don't have much experience with programming in the real world. It's going to take widespread AGI before programmers are obsolete, and it's hard to predict when that will happen, but it's not 2 years.
Learning a programming language is pretty easy, and AI can do that. The hard, time-consuming part is figuring out what specifically you want the computer to do in the first place. Once you do that, expressing it precisely in terms of a programming language is no more difficult (and often easier) than expressing it in natural language. The other huge part of the job is debugging or optimizing code, which requires some deep understanding of how the many pieces of a complex system work together. This is an enormous leap beyond the capabilities of the AI tech that is currently impressing everyone. It's not impossible for theoretical future AI, but it's not just an incremental improvement over models like GPT. It's a whole different kind of thing.
I expect AI to provide increasingly impressive autocomplete features to help make programmers more productive. That's still exciting stuff. It might reduce the market for programmers a little bit by making each one more productive, so people don't need to hire as many of them. But it won't replace them until we have true AGI that can actually reason and understand things.
To be clear, I'm not dissing what OpenAI is doing here. I'm excited for it. But people on this sub especially are badly misjudging some of its implications.
nutidizen t1_j6g5nnm wrote
AGI can do everything human can. And if AGI comes in 6 years...
Belostoma t1_j6gewjj wrote
I know AGI can. I'm skeptical that it's only 6 years out at all, let alone only 6 years out from being so widespread that just any employer can hire it at will. My main point is that not-general AI can't even begin to compete with human programmers in the complex jobs most of them actually spend most of their time on. I think humans who can leverage non-general AI to make themselves more productive will be the best programmers for a pretty long time.
SurroundSwimming3494 t1_j6gvkgv wrote
It likely won't, though. The vast majority of AI/ML researchers think it'll take longer than that, including the most prominent ones.
Viewing a single comment thread. View all comments