Submitted by questionasker577 t3_10nn3k3 in singularity
DarkCeldori t1_j6bge0g wrote
Reply to comment by genshiryoku in Why did 2003 to 2013 feel like more progress than 2013 to 2023? by questionasker577
Moores law is about miniaturization of transistors and doubling of transistor count. It is true we also used to get significant clock speed increases that we no longer do. But moores law didnt stop it only slowed down from every 18 months to every 2.5 years or something like that this happened last decade as a result of constant delays in the development of extreme ultraviolet lithography equipment but that is now solved and it is back to every 18 months iirc.
But thanks to moores law and koomeys law continuing we have seen constant increases in energy efficiency and computational power.
We are indeed facing some significant issues still some parts such as sram which is vital for cache sizes iirc have stopped scaling. Also it seems the reduction in cost per transistor has slowed or perhaps even ended recently. Microsoft estimated they wouldnt get cost reduction from moving to newer smaller transistors and thus chose to do two versions of xbox a cheap and an expensive one from the start.
If cost reduction is not solved we could be in serious trouble. As clearly a doubling of transistors requires at least a halving of transistor cost to be viable.
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