(For the wealthy)

I'm tired of this argument. Many of the drugs investigated are already very cheap and available (metformin, NMN, fisetin, to name a few popular ones that you can buy easily), and scaling production to the entire population will be immensely more profitable than selling it to a few wealthy people.

When will they make us taller

>By the end of 2023, it’s likely that one of these ideas will be shown to work in humans.

That would be amazing.

!RemindMe 1 year

I love the enthusiasm and progress is good, but please try to separate the hype from reality. LEV is not going to happen in the next 20 years like a lot of people here claim. We are decades and decades away from even having treatments for aging, let alone curing it or reaching LEV.

How about posting the text from the article. All I can read is the first paragraph which is pointless.

>How about posting the text from the article. All I can read is the first paragraph which is pointless.

LIFE EXPECTANCY IN the best-performing countries has been increasing by three months per year every year since the early 1800s. Throughout most of human history, you had a roughly 50–50 chance of making it into your twenties, mainly due to deaths from infectious diseases and accidents. Thanks to medical advances, we’ve gradually found ways to avoid and treat such causes of death; the end result is perhaps humanity’s greatest ever achievement—we’ve literally doubled what it means to be human, increasing lifespans from 40 to 80 years. On the other hand, this has allowed one scourge to rise above all the others to become the world’s largest cause of death: aging.Aging is now responsible for over two-thirds of deaths globally—more than 100,000 people every day.

This is because, counterintuitive though it may sound, the chief risk factor for most of the modern world’s leading killers is the aging process itself: Cancer, heart disease, dementia, and many more health problems become radically more common as we get older. We all know that factors such as smoking, lack of exercise, and poor diet can increase the risk of chronic diseases, but these are relatively minor compared to aging. For instance, having high blood pressure doubles your risk of having a heart attack; being 80 rather than 40 years old multiplies your risk by ten.

As the global population ages, the magnitude of death and suffering caused by aging will only increase.But this isn’t my prediction—apart from being depressing, extrapolating a two-century trend for a further year is hardly groundbreaking. What’s far more exciting is that, in 2023, we may see the first drug that targets the biology of aging itself.Scientists now have a good handle on what causes us to age, biologically speaking: The so-called “hallmarks” of the aging process range from damage to our DNA—the instruction manual within each of our cells—to proteins that misbehave because of alterations to their chemical structure. Most excitingly, we now have ideas of how to treat them.By the end of 2023, it’s likely that one of these ideas will be shown to work in humans.

One strong contender is “senolytics,” a class of treatments that targets aged cells—which biologists call senescent cells—that accumulate in our bodies as we age. These cells seem to drive the aging process—from causing cancers to neurodegeneration—and, conversely, removing them seems to slow it down, and perhaps even reverse it.A 2018 paper showed that in experiments in which mice were given a senolytic cocktail of dasatinib (a cancer drug) and quercetin (a molecule found in colorful fruit and veg), not only did they live longer, but they were at lower risk of diseases including cancer, were less frail (they could run further and faster on the tiny mouse-sized treadmills used in the experiments), and even had thicker, glossier fur than their littermates not given the drugs.

There are more than two dozen companies looking for safe and effective ways to get rid of these senescent cells in people. The biggest is Unity Biotechnology, founded by the Mayo Clinic scientists behind that mouse experiment and with investors including Jeff Bezos, which is trialing a range of senolytic drugs against diseases like macular degeneration (a cause of blindness) and lung fibrosis. There are many approaches under investigation, including small proteins that target senescent cells, vaccines to encourage the immune system to clear them out, and even gene therapy by a company called Oisín Biotechnologies, named after an Irish mythological character who travels to Tir na nÓg, the land of eternal youth.

Senolytics aren’t the only contenders, either: Others currently in human trials include Proclara Biosciences’ protein GAIM, which clears up sticky “amyloid” proteins, or Verve Therapeutics’ gene therapy to reduce cholesterol by modifying a gene called PCSK9. The first true anti-aging medicine will very likely target a specific age-related disease driven by a particular hallmark, rather than aging writ large. But the success of a drug targeting an aspect of aging in clinical trials will allow us to consider this loftier goal in the not-too-distant future.In 2023, early success of these treatments could kickstart the greatest revolution in medicine since the discovery of antibiotics. Rather than going to the doctor when we’re sick and picking off age-related problems like cancer and dementia in their late stages when they’re very hard to fix, we’ll intervene preventively to stop people getting ill in the first place—and, if those treadmill-shredding mice are anything to go by, we’ll reduce frailty and other problems that don’t always elicit a medical diagnosis at the same time.

I don't understand why countries don't put lots of money into this.

It will solve the declining population problem most rich countries has and retirement money will no longer be an issue.

I think people here are certainly overly optimistic, but there's so much compounding change that nobody really has any idea where we'll be at in twenty years time. We have no idea how a treatment for aging will be discovered or what technology it will require, so how can we even begin to guess how long it will take? Could be five years. A hundred. Never. Nobody knows.

Yup. People here like to treat the wealthy like an all powerful monolith.

For any one taking senolytics, keep in mind that senescent cells don't normally build up excessively in the body until late age and they're used for wound healing. So taking a bunch of senolytics while young may have higher risk/lower potential gain than taking them when you're older, which still doesn't yet have good human data.

Human trials seem to cost a lot, and be rare, so we have plenty of animal studies and not many human studies.

why would you want to be taller? It correlates with living a shorter life span, anyways it isn’t really an easy task the plates responsible for growth seal into bone, you’d have to break the bone and then somehow make them start dividing again.

Why do you say that? You Will have a lot of People already retired and most of them without any useful hability. And they wont die. In the long term maybe you can train them again if you revert brain damage But it's unlikely when the coming years are gonna bring up unenployment even without This.

I'm not against it and I hope that it happends But it's gonna be a challenge.

Hell, in my country if you lose your job at 50-55 its already almost imposible to get one... Imagine the ones with 65-90 coming back....

I am trying to come to terms with the info that Bezos is one of those investing in the abolition of ageing. Didn’t expect that 🤣 Sometimes I really need to look into economic details more.

Thank you for sharing!

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Meh. I hope I’m wrong, but looks like cure of aging is new “fusion energy” and “new battery breakthrough”

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I know it may sound cruel, but treatment should cost enough money to force people out of retirement. I would gladly choose no retirement over aging.

Lol. Downvote all you want, but healthy reverse aged people living on government pension just because they reached specific age, will bankrupt most governments after few decades. It won’t be fun to die from hunger in healthy body in your bankrupted country.

The question is what people will do in general as automation increases... but also in general there doesn't seem to be anything wrong with being "useless" and living forever, given a practically unlimited amount of resources, which might be possible with space colonization.

Or i’m tall and don’t understand why short people care, cold hands, cold feet, it seems like a low self esteem thing?

Women. People care mostly cause its important to women. I think… atleast thats why im grateful

I never felt the need to impress a woman, just coomer your life away, your brain knows no difference.

I can tell, its hard to ‘impress’ Them with your height.

But most of the older People dont really have a choice to come back from retirement... No one would give them a job. At least not in my country, here if you lose yours with more than 55 no one Will hire you

>t please try to separate the hype from reality. LEV is not going to happen in the next 20 years like a lot of people here claim. We are decades and decades away from even having treatments for aging, let alone curing it or reaching LEV.

absolutely my point, yes compounding change and industry convergence. We do have both targeted efforts (attempts to cure aging) and potentially synergetic non targeted efforts (from development of AI to better scanning, diagnostics, better materials, lasers, smaller particles, etc etc). LEV in 20 years may or may not happen and if we are not goign to see signs in the next 5 years we can self organize to try pushing the progress but I am more optimistic than before.

I know reversing grey hair is not directly related to curing aging, but I think of it as of a sign for progress.

If we get a really working supplement or therapy that restores natural hair color by the end of 2025 I would say it would be a good sign that we are on the path to decode, prototype and eventually solve aging as well, to me its simple - lets see how fast something as simple as grey hair gets reversed

The population would explode exponentially. We need other technologies to work with this first, like being able to build an outer colony. Before Immortality we need Ai to nanny us first lol. Plus this would sharing more money, which elite don't like to do, therefore more poverty. Again we need Ai to create and deploy on its own and bring down costs of development. Hopefully eradicate Capitalism, but again elite won't like that. I'm watching Elysium now ;)

They don’t have a choice because of health issues and mental decline because of aging. We are talking about cure of aging which ultimately will cause reversal of aging so there won’t be any reasoning for not to hire older people. Age will eventually become just a number both for work and relationships.

Yeah, if that gets totally solved AND they get trained in something useful again, it might be posible.

But it's gonna be a challenge. We already expect automation to out a lot of People out of the job market, and now you expect older People to find a job? Even reversing mental decline they Will have a hard time.

Not saying to stop working on This because of that, just that it might be a challenge. . Anyway I dont Think that it Will really be a problem, because it Will take a lot of time, working might be totally optional before it happends.

I disagree, but is only because i really want them to discover how to slow down aging before "i* am old.

The population would not "explode exponentially." We are not talking about "immortality," just something that effectively treats aging. The fertility rate continues to drop in 1st world countries. As other countries become wealthier, they will also experience a drop in fertility rates.

Me too. That's because I think AGI is coming within 10 years, even ASI. But we gotta be realistic, human greed is just, wow. We are being run by very selfish people. Look into Whitney Webb's work. It's not gonna be so simple to even get access to such a thing

I mean youre bold saying that AGI will come in 2040s. This is ridicolously long time from today.

>We are decades and decades away...

Yes this sub is very much overly optimistic thus I am wary of many of the claims made here, but I'm also wary of people who throw up baseless nonsense like this as well.

Considering that most people, this includes experts, cannot come even close to making accurate future predictions past 5 years or so I immediately tune out when people drop the "maybe in a 100 years" or the "decades and decades" spiel.

It's been said that humans can only make reasonable/feasible predictions in a time span of roughly 3 years, with 5 years being generous.

Anything past that is just wild ass guessing and the reason for that is we have no idea what break throughs can suddenly pop up or what technologies come to fruition that prior predictions didn't account for because we had no way of knowing/expected.

There are just too many unknowns past the 3-5 year mark is what my point is, so speaking so matter-of-factly about things that far out is an absurdity.

Well, remember that author is talking about the potential success of one of the more targeted treatments, e.g. the senolytics drugs for macular degeneration, which would pave the way for future complimentary drug development to one day cover most of what's causing aging. He doesn't mean "signs of ultimate anti aging drug end of 2023".

And if one has read a bit into the topic, one knows that the aging process is mostly understood in this way aswell, e.g. by Aubrey de Grey.

If it start to increase to fast then we can just set a rule that if you get a kid after a given date then your no longer allowed to get the drugs. Sucks if you don't already has children, but life is not fair.

That's why I say we need other technologies along with this before it can be released. We need a full proof contraception drug. Because i love fucking, damn

I guess we can just freeze sperm and eggs then require people to be sterilised to get the pills. A yearly check up to make sure they stil are sterilised.

Bezos isn't actually as much of a jerk as many people think he is. Of course being human he's a complicated character and he has done some bad things there's no doubt about that.

Exactly. They said tap water, antibiotics, cars, aeroplanes, personal computers and the internet would be available to everyone too. Last time I checked though, only the richest kings of Europe could afford any of those. What a scam!

It's also worth pointing out not every wealthy person is a sociopathic Monty Burns who doesn't care about the quality of life for all humanity. Many wealthy people donate the vast majority of their wealth throughout their lives.

I'm tall as well (6 4) but to be honest I feel like we take it for granted to some extent. A lot of shorter guys are really bothered by it.

Fusion energy has been progressing steadily towards working though.

Battery breakthroughs also happen fairly often. Solid state batteries are genuinely approaching market readiness in 2025 and 2026.

In my view Aubrey De Gray also isn't at the cutting edge that much anymore in the longevity field. Sinclair has a good overview of the aging process but is also too focused on supplements like metformin and NMN.

Cellular reprogramming has been absurdly promising though and has countless highly funded startups bringing it to market.

Better to just increase retirement age and/or the voluntary retirement age.

I thought so as well especially after recent announcement but just find out that it was mostly publicity stunt like every previous fusion related news.

Joe Scott explains it better than me https://youtu.be/SpuS7axls7k

We definitely are at better place when it comes to fusion than we were 20 years ago, but fusion energy isn’t going to power our houses at least for few more decades.

Isn't the major problem with cellular reprogramming accidental introduction of fatal side effects like cancer? I haven't been reading much about this topic, though.

Yes, though Sinclair's lab found that simply ignoring one of the yamanaka factors prevented the cancerous growths while still reversing significant damage without reverting the cellular identity to a stem cell.

They're already approaching clinical trials for Cellular reprogramming in some specific targets like heart tissue in heart attack survivors and more.

Calico funded by alphabet, Altos Labs funded by Bezos, and countless others are focused on bringing cellular reprogramming to market and have billions in funding to do so.

Yes, however laser fusion was never the closest thing to market viability. You have to look at high temperature super conductor magnetic fusion like commonwealth fusion and others.

Even ITER will likely be outdated by the time it turns on.

Quantum computing (which is expected to be useful in early 2030s or even late 2020s) will allow for simulating material properties especially for high temperature super conductors to rapidly iterate on materials to find better ones. Then higher temperature super conductors enable stronger magnetic fields by having an increased electrical current capacity while super conducting. This increased magnetic field makes one need a far smaller arc radius to achieve sustainable fusion, the smaller arc radius dramatically reduces on iteration time and therefore massively accelerates our ability to reach a grid ready fusion reactor.

Higher temperature super conductors are so useful for fusion that a room temperature one would enable even micro reactors with an arc radius of less than an inch to achieve the pressures needed for fusion to take place. The energy output scales linearly with the arc radius, but to the cube of the magnetic field which scales linearly with the super conducting temperature threshold.

Fingers crossed

People in wealthy nations already put off having kids until later than their parents and grandparents. As people live longer this trend will most likely continue. Why not wait until your 50s (or even longer) to have kids if by then you’re still biologically 30? I think it’s much more likely that population will stagnate or decline as a result of curing aging.

How would a world look like where we have AGI but it still takes another 10-20 years to reach LEV?

Skee-lo has entered chat

When will they make us a baller?

When will they make us a girl who looks good so we can call her?

Helion Energy is building a machine that will achieve net electricity in 2024. Zap Energy is going for net energy this year. Lithium Sulfur batteries were perfected earlier this year. At this point, if curing aging shares any resemblance, I would be extremely optimistic.

What does net electricity mean? Does it account for literally every energy which is used for the reactor?

I read about a story of a laser ignited fusion which achieved net positive the first time which actually meant more power was generated than the laser needed. But you don’t only operate the laser.

Aren’t many senolytics in human trials like the ones from the Mayo Clinic.

i just saw the new Avatar, we obviously are going to get the solution from alien whales.

(jk of course but honestly it made me think about the cost of finding a solution)

Absolutely. That's self-proclaimed realists and skeptics for you, though - they're nothing if not utterly hard-headed and completely confident in everything they ever say. In their minds, anything skeptical is automatically intelligent. I could say that 40 TB hard drives won't exist until 2800 and they would go "OMG!!!!! So true!!!!! 10/10 post take my upvote"

Yeah, 2040s is just... absurd. Absolutely absurd. There is no way to justify that opinion unless the last time you paid attention was 2017 or something.

From what I recall, net electricity accounts for everything and net energy is what you're referring to with the lasers. Zap is aiming for net electricity by 2026. (they call it engineering breakeven IIRC) Also, keep in mind that the experiment at NIF was done using old lasers. If they had used newer lasers, they would have produced more energy than the overhead involved in running the experiment.

Guarantee it will be AI at the forefront within the next decade, not any individual person

I hope we will see the results of those trials. I hear about so many human trials under weigh, and I wait for years, and nothing comes out about them. I think most null results don't get published, which is a big problem in the scientific community.

But again, hopefully we see some results of these trials and they get published somewhere even if they are null, inconclusive, or negative results.

Ah ok good to know

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It's relevant to mention here that Sinclair is on a different train than De Grey. He thinks getting to 150 years is possible in a reasonable time frame. De Grey thinks LEV is possibly and subsequently functional immortality.

So maybe ignoring this factor reduces the potential quite a bit.

I actually think Sinclair is simply saying 150 to not sound crazy. He clearly believes that epigenetic reprogramming can be done unlimited times and therefore there is no biological limit, if we can get to 150 then we can have no biological age limit.

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Could be. On altos labs landing page I noticed a surprising lack of the word "age", lol.

Yeah, all of them want to stay away from saying immortal or LEV to distance themselves. When or if we see people reversing in age due to body wide epigenetic reprogramming then we'll know we got to the point when aging is no a limit to longevity.