I've tried to game out a long time line, and it just doesn't work. Even presuming a horribly destructive world war, or running into a yet unseen bottleneck, I can't game out anything close to that. The problem for assuming such a thing is that just what's been individually shown to date indicates we should reach AGI shortly. So while I could see it being delayed to later in the decade, anything past that seems like a one percent or less situation.