You speak too confidently on what you don't know. It's fine to speculate on potential advancements but something like this

>All jobs that basically involves shuffling bits around (3D artists, programmers, musicians etc) are effectively dead within 5 years.

tells me you have no idea what you're talking about.

>there is an ineffable quality to human interaction which an AI will not replicate in my lifetime

Ah yes, I've heard this before. I also heard that computers will never be able to replace human coders, or write a sonnet, or paint a beautiful masterpiece, or pass the Turing test, or conquer the game of go, or beat the best chess players, and many more.

Sorry but if you're betting against AI at this point, you've not been paying attention

AI is already responsible for dealing with around ~85% (don't remember the exact number) customer support - the "human interaction" kind of job.

AI isn't replacing doctors or lawyers anytime soon, but let's be honest, AI is going to be much better at diagnosing than real doctors pretty soon. But that will just result in improved quality of healthcare, as I'd expected the doctor will have to approve AI results.

Anyway, there's really no way to predict how AI is going to impact the world.

It's most likely to take ~95% of current jobs, but If that happens and no new jobs are created and no proper regulations are introduced, then there's no "being rich" anymore, as in such scenario the whole economy just collapses. It's not about who has more money anymore, it's about who controls the AI. So it might be in the best interest of the billionaires to introduce certain regulations, resulting in a "good" outcome for all humankind.

"Good" scenario might result in free housing, guaranteed income, and overall well-being for everyone.

No one knows which way things are going to develop.

As a major in psychology and working in tech, studying CS I disagree. Caruso in 2019 wrote about machine emotional intelligence and psychology field already discuss and think about how to apply our emotions into machines.

Chatgpt already can answer basic psychological help. Therapies works because they are structulazied on how to help, how respond and how to guide, especially behavioral one. If therapy follows steps then AI also can do it. The only problem will be the human bias that dont want to interact with AI. But it will also change, when more and more AI will be.

Will you continue listening to music once AI musicians make most music? Will you only listen to human players, regardless of skill?

Anything with utilitarian value will eventually be replaced by AI. It is its sole purpose. And also all things generally have utilitarian value. Even the music we listen to is utilized to evoke certain emotions, tell a story, Etc.

Your only choices are to engage with it, or engage with less useful utilizations of all things simply because they are human.

Do you only wear handcrafted shoes right now? Or were yours mass produced by a soulless machine? And what of the cobbler from ages past? Where is his livelihood now?

Tell me the difference between the Shoemaker and the storyteller and you will have the definition of a human soul.

Advances in AI Will push forward robotics. Yeah, it lags behind, But it's not because it's harder, it's because without a proper ai it was not really useful.

You life time, unless you are very old, might be a very long time. I'm not saying it Will happend This decade, But in 20 years, only god knows how things Will be. I woud not expect robotics to be a barrier at all

Have you tried the psychologists bot on character.ai?

We’re hopeful for UBI.

Robotics are not lagging behind, why would you say that?

Sounds like you are discounting the possibility of truly sentient AGI. Most experts are not. The world will change again when it arrives, maybe for the better, maybe for the worse.

You're also not accounting for possible political change. When the rich own the AI that creates everything, I hope we'll legislate for distributing that wealth.

Also, art will become meaningless to some creators, but not consumers. For us it will be better when AI makes it easier. Imagine having more, better AAA games to choose from and play cooperatively and competitively with other people. I think the meaning of life for many will be based on our accomplishments and communities in virtual worlds.

I dont how old you are but if you lived trough the 00's 2006 for example we had mail and messenger and the world was a veeeryy different place.This was 16 years ago.No social media of bilions of people , no psychological issues only you and your family.What we have now is a foundation for what is going to come and it will not be build slow I think much faster because of the simple ways of comunication and maturity of society.

There is way more to programming then shuffling bits around and i dont see any manager approving ai generating code to be pushed to production servers.

Also i think there is 0% there will be no musicans in 5 years

In the near future, I would think that certain jobs which can be replaced by automation will be, but I'm not convinced that's necessarily what everyone here projects.

In the music industry for instance, many live musicians in Broadway shows have been replaced by automated music in order to reduce costs of paying an entire orchestra union wages. But that doesn't mean there are no venues for live musicians. That one arena is one where they were deemed replaceable due to cost and redundancy. But at weddings, private clubs, etc. Live musicians continue to be in demand because they add to the aesthetic.

I can see how AI could help with assessments and diagnosis and surgery in the medical industry. But most patients will still prefer to interact with a human in therapy or consultation with a doctor. At least for the next ten years.

There will always be a niche market for humans in any field, it will just become more of a conscious and aesthetic choice to interact with them in professional capacities within certain circumstances. Cobblers still exist and tend to have successful businesses particularly in urban areas where people prefer to have their shoes repaired.

There are new jobs to come. Look at the popular chatbot subs. See what different people do with AI. And you will see that there will be jobs for people who understand how AI works, as many people just don’t. So you won’t have AI making blockbusters, you will have whole teams of AI, engineers, actors, artists, musicians and AI whisperers making blockbusters.

I think our brain is a pretty powerful neural network. Why should we stop using it additionally to the AI? It’s actually not even more expensive, if you think that AI running on a server needs “food” (electricity, resources for repairs of hardware etc.) and “medical care” (programmer and engineer diagnostics in case of malfunction).

Edit: forgot something important. What you describe - people without real artistic skill making art - already happened in the 2000s. I used to already earn money as a school kid, doing all kinds of art jobs in my small suburban town, as I was one of the three best and most promising young artists in that silly sweet little suburbia. But alas, we were already globalised enough, and young stupid me was not happy with staying at home and making Jesus pictures for local churches. I wanted to learn, to develop my skill - and applied to several art universities. I was rejected everywhere. “We don’t need skill, we have digitalisation for that - what we need is new original ideas” was the reason. In the effing 2000s (yeah me old). So don’t worry. Art IS already made by “morons”. “Morons” with ideas - those ideas that will make you, me and others seeing this art happy and lift our souls up.

>What could have value without any struggle or work after all?

aren't you forgetting about new stuff? maybe we've been sitting on our laurels telling the same nine stories, reworking the same tired imagery on slightly different mediums for ten thousand years. we need to collectively up our game. we can compete, we just aren't yet. maybe we don't need to yet.

John Henry scenario for the next few years. Human will compete against AI for the next ten years but, will increasingly end-up losing.

People who haven't actually designed medium/large systems don't understand how much is involved just keeping things working.

Writing business software is basically building better duct-tape. It works, until the next new feature, or until the next upgrade, or the next security hole.

If AI was "good", there would be no security concerns. And as someone with 20+ years working in large systems, phone systems, and networks, I can say that if you think anything is secure, you should see somebody.

All that being said, I wouldn't want to be a coder in any position that can be outsourced.
I took a few features that took a team of our folks overseas a month to do, and had them rebuilt in a few hours myself. It is already like having an assistant, who types very fast, and does exactly what you tell it.
Trick is, you need to know what to tell it.

would you pay twice as much for a service with a human component if there were no added quality ?

say you have a cold and need a prescription

ai doc costs 100

human doc costs 200

are you really gonna pay 100 dollars just to interact with someone ? Why not just get the ai doc and then spend the other 100 on onlyfans. At least then the interaction is with a cute girl.

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jokes aside why do people keep pretending like human interaction is why we buy all our products/services?