Exponential growth is something many do not understand, so many times I have seen people in this sub reddit talk about 10 or 20 years from now as if they are at all predictable when the sum total of all progress in AI will be a small percentage of what we achieve next year.

I havent seen anyone

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ANYONE

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claim it was going to slow down next year lol

Huh? Would you say the sum total of all progress in AI up to 2022 was a small percentage of what was achieved in 2022?

Can you explain the mechanism of action of how that would work? What’s the limiting factor, computing power, algorithms, or what?

Probably by May of 2022 we had already achieved more than we had in all previous years, it took 5 months for that to happen, it could be sooner in 2023.

Here ya go:

https://old.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/zu5vl6/with_2022_being_such_an_explosive_year_for_ai/j1hb99e/

Lol wtf

No.

Based on the url I can see its a single message not a thread soooooooooooooooo

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no one has claimed this. Should have just said "2023 is gonna be even bigger" or something and presented your view in a positive way instead of trying to negate others.

We absolutely did not make more progress in AI from Jan-May of 2022 than in all the many decades prior. This is an insane case of recency bias.

>the sum total of all progress in AI will be a small percentage of what we achieve next year.

Extremely doubtful of that, but we'll see.

That is literally someone claiming that:

"Idk why, but I have a feeling AI will continue to progress, but not at the rate it did this year; the bar was set high in 2022."

All you said was you haven't see anyone claim it, well there is someone doing exactly that. Instead of reading the url, you maybe should have read the comment?

Ah but then I would have seen one, an annoying outlier to my still true point. This way Im still right.

I respect the honesty of being underhanded in a debate.

Exponential growth in anything is rarely sustained indefinitely. It comes in bursts.

I expect the tech behind ChatGPT to start to hit a ceiling before too long. Its job is basically to coherently summarize its training data relevant to the prompt, and it's already super impressive on prompts for which adequate training data exist. It will cause disruptive changes in parts of society built around the assumption that a human wrote something. 2023 will probably bring cooler art and more believable writing as things like ChatGPT and Dall-E are refined.

However, there isn't really a smooth path for incremental improvement from this to tasks that require understanding and thought, making logical deductions from extremely sparse training data with an understanding of their credibility and connections, and solving novel problems. I'm not saying AI won't crack that nut eventually, but it's a different and harder problem that will require new breakthroughs rather than incremental improvements.

I expect exponential growth in that area whenever AI gets good enough to really help AI researchers make the next breakthroughs and start a positive feedback loop of recursive self-improvement. But it's not clear that ChatGPT is the start of that cycle. Humans might leverage it to gain some efficiency in their work, but that's more of a linear improvement than exponential.

Its a gamble, just banking on no one caring enough to screenshot it in this thread.

AI models are not progressing at the rate of smart phones they are progressing at much greater pace than that yet to read the more conservative opinions on their progress you'd assume that AI developments were made at timeframes that would be equal to say home video game consoles being released. Things that would require decades of progress in other fields occur within weeks or months in the field of AI development.

Imagine showing Dalle-2's image generation to someone in 2014. Imagine trying to explain what Google Pathways can achieve to someone who had only used Cleverbot before. The gulf is staggering and the rate of progress in 2022 eclipses that of any previous year outright in the history of the entire field of AI development and all of that existed in May.

In the first week of June we had:

https://sites.google.com/view/multi-game-transformers

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-30761-2

https://techxplore.com/news/2022-06-artificial-skin-robots.html

Then later in that month there would be:

https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/955133

https://cajundiscordian.medium.com/is-lamda-sentient-an-interview-ea64d916d917

https://twitter.com/i/status/1536378529415315458

https://gweb-research-parti.web.app/parti_paper.pdf

https://techxplore.com/news/2022-06-deep-framework-pose-robotic-arms.html

AI generated podcasts: https://lexman.rocks/

AI learned how to play Minecraft: https://www.techradar.com/news/ai-can-now-play-minecraft-just-as-well-as-you-heres-why-that-matters

Then GODEL:

https://www.marktechpost.com/2022/06/25/microsoft-ai-researchers-open-source-godel-a-large-scale-pre-trained-language-model-for-dialog/

A language model capable of solving mathematical questions using step-by-step natural language reasoning combining scale, data and others dramatically improves performance on the STEM benchmarks MATH and MMLU-STEM. https://ai.googleblog.com/2022/06/minerva-solving-quantitative-reasoning.html

https://techxplore.com/news/2022-06-fake-robots-ropes-faster.html

And that was only up to the end of June.

Do not take these sources for it either Jack Clark sums it up well:

https://twitter.com/jackclarkSF/status/1542715805657210881?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1542715805657210881%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=

>the rate of progress in 2022 eclipses that of any previous year outright in the history of the entire field of AI development

Perhaps, but you said in the previous comment that it eclipsed every single previous year combined, if I'm not mistaken. That's why I gave the answer that I gave.

Great rebuttle.

GATO, DALLE 2, CHAT GPT, Minerva, Pathways, etc.

https://twitter.com/jackclarkSF/status/1542723429580689408?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1542729464714391552%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es2_&ref_url=

This was all from the middle of the year.

There has been exponentially more progress each and every year, it's exponential growth not linear which is why based solely on what was achieved by June let alone after it puts 2022 in a league of it's own when it comes to AI advances.

It's exponential growth 2022 already encompasses the vast majority of progress in the field 2023 will be no different.

Exponential growth has pretty much been the standard in AI and computing for years AI winters do not happen anymore.

based

I am not expecting the research or breakthroughs to slow down.

I am expecting public releases to get snarled up in litigation.

It's not even 2023 yet

Building on YEARS of ideas. They were cool, but without transformers they wouldn't exist. Without infrastructure code, they wouldn't exist. Without years of hardware improvements, they wouldn't exist. Without the ideas of normalization and skip connections, they wouldn't exist. Etc. (and this isn't even including all the alleys that were chased down, to find out they didn't work. Which isn't as clear, but definitely contributes to research).

GATO didn't even have that much to show for it, the long hoped-for skill transfer was not really there. DALLE 2 builds on CLIP and diffusion, ChatGPT builds on GPT3 and years of RL research.

You're saying something along the lines of "x is better than what came before, so the step to x is bigger than the sum of all the steps before that" and that is the worst take i've ever heard. It's definitely not how research works.

And goddamn it I'm getting deja vu cuz this bad take has been said before on this subreddit.

This rebuttal better? I'd be happy to go and list essential moments in AI in the past decade if it isn't.

Traditional artists are lobbying against image AIs with an interest in putting the genie back in the bottle

And nothing will come of it.

I hope not! They've already gotten Unstable Diffusion kicked off two fundraising sites based on anti AI rhetoric and I'd like that to be the end of their wins

It's open source and will be untraceable. You can't put the genie back.

Shit's real when the terrorism, for and against AI, starts. We all know it's coming.

Right now the claim is that the current algorithms carry us way further.

The limiting factor is indeed computing power and good data. The last shift is that you need to grow the labeling of good tokens(desired outcomes) with the data.

There is also a lot of work done on chips, which are only used to train AI models and good data is created on mass. It is all coming together fast because there are also using models for data cleanup labeling.

Of course it is always possible that we hit a wall with the current algorithms soon but it looks very promising.
and the knowledge is walled off. The general principles of how OpenAI and Google archived their level are out there. So we have many companies driving us forward.

Idk if Chat-GPT should be on this? it released in 2022...

One could argue that we DID see more progress in 2022 than in the previous 10 years IF you just consider the subjective capabilities/functions added in 2022 that literally didn't exist previously. Nothing remotely close to Dalle 2 existed prior to 2022, and we now have multiple rapidly improving image generation models alongside Dalle 2. Same for large language models, GPT "3.5" is just a massive improvement over anything previously publicly available, including previous GPT-3 releases. chatGPT is just a further evolution on that "GPT-3.5" line of LLM's.

I get that these new subjective capabilities came as a result of just iterative improvements on develops ongoing since 2011/2012...but again if you just look at subjective capabilities....2022 saw MASSIVE gains.

Who's the Twitter user? Is he someone important?

He's the GTM of OpenAI. As far as I can tell, a GTM is a public relations person that devises plans to convince customers to buy or use their product.

I have seen a lot of doubters who think the current iteration of ChatGPT is somehow the best it’ll get, but not anyone who thinks it’ll make an inverse exponential function

This. People who think the government is just going to let AI run rampant in society unrestricted are unbelievably naive.

Did even a single person say that tho?

I saw a chart of standard AI vs New method (arrived 2018). Old methods 8x/2year. New method 240x/2year. Maybe isn’t such a crazy statement.

Basically, memory tech. CPU has improved thousands last decades, but DRAM only 30x in the same period. And train needs tons of it. We are working on several ideas to walk around, but the exponential grow haven't a clean path at all for now.

Naive would be to think the government can do anything about it. Any obstacle put in ai's way will literally only make it stronger and undermine the petty human law givers even further. What we need is to find ways to adjust our societies to it, not the other way around.

One important thing to note is that ai progress isn't yet bottlenecked by companies trying to regulate the market. Like with smartphones and consoles.while technologically it might be possible, SONY can't release a new playstation every month, because it wouldn't make any sense to do so.

Just draw a graph ffs

The government can do as much as it has the will to accomplish.

The only questions are whether the government will choose to act and in what manner.

I kind of see what you are getting at, and it could be the case with exponential improvements in methods/research that we see more discoveries in one year than all the previous at some point but I don't think we're there yet.

The progression has been linear in my view:

1. Efficient image classification (CNNs)

2. object detection / segmentation / pix2pix / basic img2text models (RCNNs, Unet, GANs)

3. Deep reinforcement learning (DQN, PPO, MCTS)

4. Attention networks (transformers and language modelling)

5. Basic question / answer and reasoning models

6. Low quality txt2img models (e.g. DALL-E 1)

7. High quality txt2img models (e.g. DALL-E 2, stable diffusion)

8. Multimodal modals (image understading etc) <- we are here

9. Already happening video2video models, text2mesh / point cloud

10. Expect low, then high quality multimodal generation models e.g. txt2video + music

11. Expect improved text understanding, general chat behaviour, ie large step ups in chatbot usefulness inclution ability to take actions (this part is already underway)

12. Expect some kind of attention based method for reading and writing to storage (i.e memory) and possibly online learning / continuous improvement

13 . More incrementally interesting stuff :)

You mean people. The government is an abstract entity created by people

How are measuring progress? Is there a checklist?

I think we can all agree that congress is composed of discrete individuals who pass, or fail to pass, legislation.

The tech won't slow down... Unless gov and lobbies interfere. Has happened a lot in the past unfortunately. Hopefully this wave is too big for them to.

The tech wont slow down, America will fall behind.

Lol. We don't even have AI yet. The government has plenty of options still and are not going to willingly cede such power to common people.

"Linear" but consider how rapidly the last half of your points progressed! It took nearly a decade to go from step 1 to step 6. In then took 18 months to go from step 6 to step 9, and probably less than another 12 months to get to step 11 based on current rates of progress.

It's going to be an interesting decade for sure :)

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