Foundation12a OP t1_j24xxm9 wrote on December 29, 2022 at 6:15 PM

Reply to comment by SurroundSwimming3494 in For those of you who expect AI progress to slow next year: by Foundation12a

AI models are not progressing at the rate of smart phones they are progressing at much greater pace than that yet to read the more conservative opinions on their progress you'd assume that AI developments were made at timeframes that would be equal to say home video game consoles being released. Things that would require decades of progress in other fields occur within weeks or months in the field of AI development.

Imagine showing Dalle-2's image generation to someone in 2014. Imagine trying to explain what Google Pathways can achieve to someone who had only used Cleverbot before. The gulf is staggering and the rate of progress in 2022 eclipses that of any previous year outright in the history of the entire field of AI development and all of that existed in May.

In the first week of June we had:

https://sites.google.com/view/multi-game-transformers

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-30761-2

https://techxplore.com/news/2022-06-artificial-skin-robots.html

Then later in that month there would be:

https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/955133

https://cajundiscordian.medium.com/is-lamda-sentient-an-interview-ea64d916d917

https://twitter.com/i/status/1536378529415315458

https://gweb-research-parti.web.app/parti_paper.pdf

https://techxplore.com/news/2022-06-deep-framework-pose-robotic-arms.html

AI generated podcasts: https://lexman.rocks/

AI learned how to play Minecraft: https://www.techradar.com/news/ai-can-now-play-minecraft-just-as-well-as-you-heres-why-that-matters

Then GODEL:

https://www.marktechpost.com/2022/06/25/microsoft-ai-researchers-open-source-godel-a-large-scale-pre-trained-language-model-for-dialog/

A language model capable of solving mathematical questions using step-by-step natural language reasoning combining scale, data and others dramatically improves performance on the STEM benchmarks MATH and MMLU-STEM. https://ai.googleblog.com/2022/06/minerva-solving-quantitative-reasoning.html

https://techxplore.com/news/2022-06-fake-robots-ropes-faster.html

And that was only up to the end of June.

Do not take these sources for it either Jack Clark sums it up well:

https://twitter.com/jackclarkSF/status/1542715805657210881?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1542715805657210881%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=

SurroundSwimming3494 t1_j24yisp wrote on December 29, 2022 at 6:19 PM

>the rate of progress in 2022 eclipses that of any previous year outright in the history of the entire field of AI development

Perhaps, but you said in the previous comment that it eclipsed every single previous year combined, if I'm not mistaken. That's why I gave the answer that I gave.

Foundation12a OP t1_j24zcek wrote on December 29, 2022 at 6:24 PM

There has been exponentially more progress each and every year, it's exponential growth not linear which is why based solely on what was achieved by June let alone after it puts 2022 in a league of it's own when it comes to AI advances.

gavlang t1_j28dh8j wrote on December 30, 2022 at 11:19 AM

Just draw a graph ffs

Ne_Nel t1_j27uk24 wrote on December 30, 2022 at 7:09 AM

I saw a chart of standard AI vs New method (arrived 2018). Old methods 8x/2year. New method 240x/2year. Maybe isn’t such a crazy statement.

Plus-Recording-8370 t1_j2886dh wrote on December 30, 2022 at 10:07 AM

One important thing to note is that ai progress isn't yet bottlenecked by companies trying to regulate the market. Like with smartphones and consoles.while technologically it might be possible, SONY can't release a new playstation every month, because it wouldn't make any sense to do so.