Submitted by Foundation12a t3_zyau7z in singularity
Comments
Artanthos t1_j254miw wrote
I am not expecting the research or breakthroughs to slow down.
I am expecting public releases to get snarled up in litigation.
Cult_of_Chad t1_j26b1lo wrote
Shit's real when the terrorism, for and against AI, starts. We all know it's coming.
Em0tionisdead t1_j27gdfd wrote
This. People who think the government is just going to let AI run rampant in society unrestricted are unbelievably naive.
Plus-Recording-8370 t1_j287ix8 wrote
Naive would be to think the government can do anything about it. Any obstacle put in ai's way will literally only make it stronger and undermine the petty human law givers even further. What we need is to find ways to adjust our societies to it, not the other way around.
Artanthos t1_j28g7qy wrote
The government can do as much as it has the will to accomplish.
The only questions are whether the government will choose to act and in what manner.
EscapeVelocity83 t1_j28zjgy wrote
You mean people. The government is an abstract entity created by people
Artanthos t1_j291nax wrote
I think we can all agree that congress is composed of discrete individuals who pass, or fail to pass, legislation.
Em0tionisdead t1_j29npuo wrote
Lol. We don't even have AI yet. The government has plenty of options still and are not going to willingly cede such power to common people.
Foundation12a OP t1_j24t7p5 wrote
Tip_Odde t1_j24te5i wrote
Based on the url I can see its a single message not a thread soooooooooooooooo
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no one has claimed this. Should have just said "2023 is gonna be even bigger" or something and presented your view in a positive way instead of trying to negate others.
Foundation12a OP t1_j24txwp wrote
That is literally someone claiming that:
"Idk why, but I have a feeling AI will continue to progress, but not at the rate it did this year; the bar was set high in 2022."
All you said was you haven't see anyone claim it, well there is someone doing exactly that. Instead of reading the url, you maybe should have read the comment?
Tip_Odde t1_j24u813 wrote
Ah but then I would have seen one, an annoying outlier to my still true point. This way Im still right.
Mountain-Award7440 t1_j24v8nq wrote
I respect the honesty of being underhanded in a debate.
Tip_Odde t1_j24vuan wrote
Its a gamble, just banking on no one caring enough to screenshot it in this thread.
Foundation12a OP t1_j251lk7 wrote
based
TonyTalksBackPodcast t1_j278mn8 wrote
I have seen a lot of doubters who think the current iteration of ChatGPT is somehow the best it’ll get, but not anyone who thinks it’ll make an inverse exponential function
Good-AI t1_j299690 wrote
The tech won't slow down... Unless gov and lobbies interfere. Has happened a lot in the past unfortunately. Hopefully this wave is too big for them to.
Tip_Odde t1_j29cdxe wrote
The tech wont slow down, America will fall behind.
tatleoat t1_j25esvo wrote
Traditional artists are lobbying against image AIs with an interest in putting the genie back in the bottle
Tip_Odde t1_j25g1ot wrote
And nothing will come of it.
tatleoat t1_j25ix7x wrote
I hope not! They've already gotten Unstable Diffusion kicked off two fundraising sites based on anti AI rhetoric and I'd like that to be the end of their wins
Dorangos t1_j25zwl0 wrote
It's open source and will be untraceable. You can't put the genie back.
Foundation12a OP t1_j24r5bq wrote
Exponential growth is something many do not understand, so many times I have seen people in this sub reddit talk about 10 or 20 years from now as if they are at all predictable when the sum total of all progress in AI will be a small percentage of what we achieve next year.
slightly_comfortable t1_j24sh2h wrote
Huh? Would you say the sum total of all progress in AI up to 2022 was a small percentage of what was achieved in 2022?
Foundation12a OP t1_j24t2vz wrote
Probably by May of 2022 we had already achieved more than we had in all previous years, it took 5 months for that to happen, it could be sooner in 2023.
SurroundSwimming3494 t1_j24tglj wrote
We absolutely did not make more progress in AI from Jan-May of 2022 than in all the many decades prior. This is an insane case of recency bias.
Foundation12a OP t1_j24xxm9 wrote
AI models are not progressing at the rate of smart phones they are progressing at much greater pace than that yet to read the more conservative opinions on their progress you'd assume that AI developments were made at timeframes that would be equal to say home video game consoles being released. Things that would require decades of progress in other fields occur within weeks or months in the field of AI development.
Imagine showing Dalle-2's image generation to someone in 2014. Imagine trying to explain what Google Pathways can achieve to someone who had only used Cleverbot before. The gulf is staggering and the rate of progress in 2022 eclipses that of any previous year outright in the history of the entire field of AI development and all of that existed in May.
In the first week of June we had:
https://sites.google.com/view/multi-game-transformers
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-30761-2
https://techxplore.com/news/2022-06-artificial-skin-robots.html
Then later in that month there would be:
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/955133
https://cajundiscordian.medium.com/is-lamda-sentient-an-interview-ea64d916d917
https://twitter.com/i/status/1536378529415315458
https://gweb-research-parti.web.app/parti_paper.pdf
https://techxplore.com/news/2022-06-deep-framework-pose-robotic-arms.html
AI generated podcasts: https://lexman.rocks/
AI learned how to play Minecraft: https://www.techradar.com/news/ai-can-now-play-minecraft-just-as-well-as-you-heres-why-that-matters
Then GODEL:
A language model capable of solving mathematical questions using step-by-step natural language reasoning combining scale, data and others dramatically improves performance on the STEM benchmarks MATH and MMLU-STEM. https://ai.googleblog.com/2022/06/minerva-solving-quantitative-reasoning.html
https://techxplore.com/news/2022-06-fake-robots-ropes-faster.html
And that was only up to the end of June.
Do not take these sources for it either Jack Clark sums it up well:
SurroundSwimming3494 t1_j24yisp wrote
>the rate of progress in 2022 eclipses that of any previous year outright in the history of the entire field of AI development
Perhaps, but you said in the previous comment that it eclipsed every single previous year combined, if I'm not mistaken. That's why I gave the answer that I gave.
Foundation12a OP t1_j24zcek wrote
There has been exponentially more progress each and every year, it's exponential growth not linear which is why based solely on what was achieved by June let alone after it puts 2022 in a league of it's own when it comes to AI advances.
gavlang t1_j28dh8j wrote
Just draw a graph ffs
Ne_Nel t1_j27uk24 wrote
I saw a chart of standard AI vs New method (arrived 2018). Old methods 8x/2year. New method 240x/2year. Maybe isn’t such a crazy statement.
Plus-Recording-8370 t1_j2886dh wrote
One important thing to note is that ai progress isn't yet bottlenecked by companies trying to regulate the market. Like with smartphones and consoles.while technologically it might be possible, SONY can't release a new playstation every month, because it wouldn't make any sense to do so.
CypherLH t1_j26kj86 wrote
One could argue that we DID see more progress in 2022 than in the previous 10 years IF you just consider the subjective capabilities/functions added in 2022 that literally didn't exist previously. Nothing remotely close to Dalle 2 existed prior to 2022, and we now have multiple rapidly improving image generation models alongside Dalle 2. Same for large language models, GPT "3.5" is just a massive improvement over anything previously publicly available, including previous GPT-3 releases. chatGPT is just a further evolution on that "GPT-3.5" line of LLM's.
I get that these new subjective capabilities came as a result of just iterative improvements on develops ongoing since 2011/2012...but again if you just look at subjective capabilities....2022 saw MASSIVE gains.
shmoculus t1_j28yfux wrote
I kind of see what you are getting at, and it could be the case with exponential improvements in methods/research that we see more discoveries in one year than all the previous at some point but I don't think we're there yet.
The progression has been linear in my view:
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Efficient image classification (CNNs)
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object detection / segmentation / pix2pix / basic img2text models (RCNNs, Unet, GANs)
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Deep reinforcement learning (DQN, PPO, MCTS)
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Attention networks (transformers and language modelling)
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Basic question / answer and reasoning models
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Low quality txt2img models (e.g. DALL-E 1)
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High quality txt2img models (e.g. DALL-E 2, stable diffusion)
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Multimodal modals (image understading etc) <- we are here
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Already happening video2video models, text2mesh / point cloud
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Expect low, then high quality multimodal generation models e.g. txt2video + music
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Expect improved text understanding, general chat behaviour, ie large step ups in chatbot usefulness inclution ability to take actions (this part is already underway)
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Expect some kind of attention based method for reading and writing to storage (i.e memory) and possibly online learning / continuous improvement
13 . More incrementally interesting stuff :)
CypherLH t1_j2b0ncx wrote
"Linear" but consider how rapidly the last half of your points progressed! It took nearly a decade to go from step 1 to step 6. In then took 18 months to go from step 6 to step 9, and probably less than another 12 months to get to step 11 based on current rates of progress.
shmoculus t1_j2byyzm wrote
It's going to be an interesting decade for sure :)
EscapeVelocity83 t1_j28zw2w wrote
How are measuring progress? Is there a checklist?
summertime_taco t1_j24t8sc wrote
Lol wtf
No.
Foundation12a OP t1_j24yu8m wrote
Great rebuttle.
GATO, DALLE 2, CHAT GPT, Minerva, Pathways, etc.
This was all from the middle of the year.
manOnPavementWaving t1_j25doir wrote
Building on YEARS of ideas. They were cool, but without transformers they wouldn't exist. Without infrastructure code, they wouldn't exist. Without years of hardware improvements, they wouldn't exist. Without the ideas of normalization and skip connections, they wouldn't exist. Etc. (and this isn't even including all the alleys that were chased down, to find out they didn't work. Which isn't as clear, but definitely contributes to research).
GATO didn't even have that much to show for it, the long hoped-for skill transfer was not really there. DALLE 2 builds on CLIP and diffusion, ChatGPT builds on GPT3 and years of RL research.
You're saying something along the lines of "x is better than what came before, so the step to x is bigger than the sum of all the steps before that" and that is the worst take i've ever heard. It's definitely not how research works.
And goddamn it I'm getting deja vu cuz this bad take has been said before on this subreddit.
This rebuttal better? I'd be happy to go and list essential moments in AI in the past decade if it isn't.
AvgAIbot t1_j24t0ag wrote
Can you explain the mechanism of action of how that would work? What’s the limiting factor, computing power, algorithms, or what?
Utoko t1_j26gb5n wrote
Right now the claim is that the current algorithms carry us way further.
The limiting factor is indeed computing power and good data. The last shift is that you need to grow the labeling of good tokens(desired outcomes) with the data.
There is also a lot of work done on chips, which are only used to train AI models and good data is created on mass. It is all coming together fast because there are also using models for data cleanup labeling.
Of course it is always possible that we hit a wall with the current algorithms soon but it looks very promising.
and the knowledge is walled off. The general principles of how OpenAI and Google archived their level are out there. So we have many companies driving us forward.
Ne_Nel t1_j27uvl5 wrote
Basically, memory tech. CPU has improved thousands last decades, but DRAM only 30x in the same period. And train needs tons of it. We are working on several ideas to walk around, but the exponential grow haven't a clean path at all for now.
Ok_Homework9290 t1_j24tszw wrote
>the sum total of all progress in AI will be a small percentage of what we achieve next year.
Extremely doubtful of that, but we'll see.
Foundation12a OP t1_j24zsdc wrote
It's exponential growth 2022 already encompasses the vast majority of progress in the field 2023 will be no different.
Belostoma t1_j24vbe8 wrote
Exponential growth in anything is rarely sustained indefinitely. It comes in bursts.
I expect the tech behind ChatGPT to start to hit a ceiling before too long. Its job is basically to coherently summarize its training data relevant to the prompt, and it's already super impressive on prompts for which adequate training data exist. It will cause disruptive changes in parts of society built around the assumption that a human wrote something. 2023 will probably bring cooler art and more believable writing as things like ChatGPT and Dall-E are refined.
However, there isn't really a smooth path for incremental improvement from this to tasks that require understanding and thought, making logical deductions from extremely sparse training data with an understanding of their credibility and connections, and solving novel problems. I'm not saying AI won't crack that nut eventually, but it's a different and harder problem that will require new breakthroughs rather than incremental improvements.
I expect exponential growth in that area whenever AI gets good enough to really help AI researchers make the next breakthroughs and start a positive feedback loop of recursive self-improvement. But it's not clear that ChatGPT is the start of that cycle. Humans might leverage it to gain some efficiency in their work, but that's more of a linear improvement than exponential.
Foundation12a OP t1_j24zxdh wrote
Exponential growth has pretty much been the standard in AI and computing for years AI winters do not happen anymore.
bustedbuddha t1_j259544 wrote
It's not even 2023 yet
GeneralZain t1_j26jxb4 wrote
Idk if Chat-GPT should be on this? it released in 2022...
Important_Tip_9704 t1_j27mbf1 wrote
Did even a single person say that tho?
[deleted] t1_j2ezwh1 wrote
[deleted]
Danger-Dom t1_j26n58e wrote
Who's the Twitter user? Is he someone important?
AsuhoChinami t1_j26t5zq wrote
He's the GTM of OpenAI. As far as I can tell, a GTM is a public relations person that devises plans to convince customers to buy or use their product.
Tip_Odde t1_j24ru9n wrote
I havent seen anyone
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ANYONE
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claim it was going to slow down next year lol